LULA TOUTS JOBS AND CAMPOS IN NORTHEAST

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RECIFE 000060 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: BR PGOV ECON EPET SUBJECT: LULA TOUTS JOBS AND CAMPOS IN NORTHEAST ¶1. Summary (SBU) During a visit to the Suape port on September 11, President Lula heaped praise on Governor Eduardo Campos (PSB),in his fifth visit to Pernambuco this year, fueling speculation that PT will offer Campos a high profile role - possibly the vice-presidency - in the upcoming presidential campaign . With Lula enjoying solid support in the Northeast, the event did not have any of the trappings of a campaign rally but felt more like a victory celebration. During events aimed at highlighting new industrial investment and jobs in the region, Lula lauded the dynamic growth in the Northeast and the strength of the Brazilian economy more generally amid the world financial crisis. Even though the day in Suape was all about the economy, commentators noted that PT prospective presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff did not attend due to medical reasons and was hardly mentioned in the speeches. Dilma's apparent failure to carry over Lula's high popularity levels in the Northeast has raised the value of electoral support from Campos, who has been courted heavily by PSDB leaders Jose Serra and Aecio Neves in recent months. End summary. ¶2. (U) President Lula inaugurated the fifth dock in the Northeast's largest port, and construction of the first Suezmax tanker at the Atlantico Sul shipyard, and also visited a new flour mill, all at the Port of Suape industrial zone; he then inaugurated two federal research labs at the UFPE campus. The shipyard event featured speeches from Transpetro chairman Sergio Machado, Estaleiro Atlantico Sul president Angelo Bellelis, Petrobras CEO Sergio Gabrielli, Pernambuco Governor Eduardo Campos, capped by an emotional half-hour speech from President Lula. Machado and Bellelis signed a contract for seven more tankers (for a total of 22) and Gabrielli announced an order for 28 deep-sea drilling rigs, a $495m investment that should create 8500 additional local jobs. Lula, three of his federal ministers, Governor Campos, and various federal deputies, CEOs, trade unionists, and local officials were on stage and in the audience Lula also recognized officials from Venezuela's PdVSA and from South Korea's SungDong corporation. ¶3. (SBU) Minister Dilma Rousseff was originally scheduled to participate in the events, but was undergoing medical treatment and was only mentioned once, and not by Lula. Her absence served as a reminder that she may not be sufficiently healthy for a vigorous campaign next year and also coincided with the release of new polls that showed probable PSDB candidate Jose Serra widening his lead over her - largely due to Dilma's inability to retain Lula's large advantage in the Northeast . With the announcement by Marina Silva that she will run with the Green Party and Ceara's Federal Deputy, former Governor, and former presidential candidate Ciro Gomes (PSB) publicly indicating his interest in a run, Dilma's vulnerability has prompted rumors Lula may turn to Campos to shore up the ticket. Campos is frequent visitor in Brasilia and traveled to the capital the week before and the week after the Suape event, publicly participating in negotiations on infrastructure investments under the accelerated growth program (PAC) and the pre-salt royalties revenue-sharing debate. Lula's Governor ¶4. (SBU) Lula praised Campos as a strong, new kind of leader for the Northeast and emphasized the importance of the project in creating jobs and decentralizing Brazil's economy beyond the Southeast. Lula significantly referred to the Governor of his state of birth as an `achado de deus' - or gift from god - for Pernambuco, citing the fact that Campos puts the national and regional interest ahead of narrow state concerns, unlike previous Northeastern governors who bickered over federal funds. Campos served in Lula's first-term cabinet as Minister of Science and Technology, and as a federal deputy before his 2006 election as Governor. He is the political heir of his grandfather, the three-time governor Miguel Arraes, who was a close political ally of Lula and who was imprisoned and exiled during the military regime. The 44-year-old Campos is a gifted politician and strategic campaigner who knows how to employ a populist touch, while still maintaining his image as a competent administrator and economist attracting investment to the state. Investment and Jobs for Pernambuco ¶5. (U) At the Atlantico Sul event, Lula applauded Gabrielli's decision to opt for creating a new Brazilian shipyard over purchasing foreign-produced ships from Korea and congratulated the thousands of workers in the audience. Petrobras opted to pay more for the tankers than the cost of buying from Korea as part of policy to revive domestic shipbuilding. Echoing Campos' message touting the growth of the NE economy, he said that five years ago it would have been unimaginable for the sons of cane-cutters to hold industrial jobs. Lula also used the campaign-rally-style address to criticize the Washington consensus and economic policies of previous governments and lament that fact that the 80s and 90s did not create enough engineering jobs for the Northeast. He gave credit to low-income Brazilians' continued consumption for saving the country from the effects of the global crisis. Lula's overall theme for the event was that "today is the day Brazilian's start RECIFE 00000060 002 OF 002 believing in themselves." ¶6. (U) The Lula visit received extensive and positive television and press coverage in Recife with full-page cover stories and pages of articles and graphics celebrating the 9000 jobs at the shipyard, and the projection of 2000 more with the signing of the contract for seven additional tankers, bringing the total Petrobras order to 22. Lula's characterization of Eduardo Campos as a godsend and Pernambuco's 6% GDP growth beating China's (compared to 2% nationally) also garnered wide coverage, in addition to other expansion at Suape and the new research labs. Campos in 2010? ¶7. (SBU) Comment: A beaming Lula together again with Campos provided a picture of a successful up-and-coming governor from a state on the move economically. While it is still perhaps a long shot that Campos will actually be chosen as vice president, given the strong alliance between PT and PMDB (and especially Chamber of Deputies President Michel Temer, most post contacts confirm that Campos is interested in higher office. Some even see him as a potential dark horse presidential candidate, if Dilma stumbles or is unable to run and Ciro fails to gain traction with PT supporters. Either as a dynamic and popular Northeasterner to balance a ticket led by Dilma, or as a viable back-up at the top of the ticket, Campos seems focused on more than just re-election in Pernambuco. One post contact close to the governor sees the charismatic Campos as someone who could run an engaging campaign, holding his own against the PSDB's Serra one-on-one in the 2010 presidential race. PSDB is aware of Campos' clout and potential and will also continue courting him aggressively. End comment. DEL CORSO