NLD UNCLES ON GAMBARI; NEW IDEAS FOR U.S. POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000096

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: NLD UNCLES ON GAMBARI; NEW IDEAS FOR U.S. POLICY

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Classified By: P/E Chief Jennifer Harhigh for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

Summary
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1. (C) During a February 10 meeting, members of the
National League for Democracy's Central Executive Committee
(CEC, aka "the Uncles") recounted their February 2 meetings
with Aung San Suu Kyi and UN Special Representative Gambari.
The Uncles said they and ASSK remain on the same page. They
told Gambari that UNSYG Ban should not visit Burma without
tangible results, namely the release of all political
prisoners and the beginning of a time-bound dialogue. When
we asked the Uncles what they would advise the USG aboutthe
way forward, they reiterated to us their rejection of the
regime's constitution and the "roadmap" process. CEC members
U Nyunt Wai and Win Tin suggested the USG ramp up pressure on
the regime. However, in an acknowledged departure from the
NLD's usual stance, fellow CEC member Khin Maung Swe said he
thought it might be time to consider high-level USG dialogue
with the regime, with the adjusting of sanctions on the table
as possible leverage. Two days later in a conversation with
Charge, Khin Maung Swe said the Uncles will shortly reconfirm
publicly their willingess for unconditional dialogue with the
regime, and he said they are coming around to his view that
the U.S. should be engaging, too. End summary.

Meetings with ASSK, Gambari
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2. (C) In an hour-long session with the Charge, EAP/MLS
Deputy Matt Palmer, and Pol/Econ Chief, U Nyunt Wai, who had
been present in the February 2 sessions with Aung San Suu Kyi
and Gambari, confirmed that five CEC members selected by the
SPDC had been permitted to meet alone with Aung San Suu Kyi
for fifteen minutes prior to meeting together with Gambari
for nearly an hour and a half. He confirmed that police
refused to allow recently released CEC members Win Tin and
Khin Maung Swe to attend the meetings. Nyunt Wai said that
ASSK appeared healthy and is "her pretty old self." Nyunt
Wai added that she looks "only 55." (Her age is 63.) Nyunt
Wai viewed the private meeting between the Uncles and ASSK as
a "lifting of pressure" since they had not been allowed to
meet privately for over a year. They were comforted when it
was immediately clear all of them remain agreed about policy
issues.


3. (C) According to Nyunt Wai, Gambari insisted on knowing
the NLD's position on conditions for a potential UNSYG visit.
ASSK and the Uncles told Gambari SYG Ban should not come
unless there are "tangible results" including the release of
all political prisoners and the beginning of a time-bound
dialogue including democratic forces. The NLD elders also
made clear to Gambari they do not accept the regime's
constitution and would discourage any UN offers of technical
assistance for elections as legitimizing a flawed process.

Way forward for U.S. policy?
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4. (C) CDA and EAP/MLS Deputy Director assured the Uncles
that the Burma situation will continue to be a high-priority
concern of the USG under the new Administration. Asked what
advice the Uncles would offer U.S. policymakers, U Nyunt Wai
said pressure and more pressure via sanctions is the only
course. U Win Tin said the current situation is untenable,
and he also urged the USG to step up pressure on Burma in
order to force what he termed "regime change." He
acknowledged that he did not mean "regime change" in the
sense of Iraq. Khin Maung Swe, noting that he was speaking
for himself and not the party, said he would welcome a
"genuine, substantive dialogue" between ASSK and Than Shwe.
He said the current policy of working through the
regime-appointed liaison minister Aung Kyi is not working.
He suggested that the U.S. should consider high-level
dialogue with the regime, using the lifting of economic
sanctions as leverage. He said 20 years of sanctions have
not been successful, so a new approach shou

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ld be considered.

Union Day Conversation: Shifting to Engagement?
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5. (C) Two days later CDA and EAP/MLS Deputy Director
attended a February 12 Union Day event at NLD Headquarters.
On the CDA's arrival, Khin Maung Swe immediately approached
to pass along that the NLD intends to issue a public
statement as early as Monday to make clear it is prepared to
engage in dialogue with the regime without pre-conditions.
He then reiterated his comment from the earlier meeting that
the USG should engage with the regime and should have
sanctions on the table. When the Charge noted evidence of
some disagreement among the Uncles about the USG engagement
idea, Khin Maung Swe said a shift is occurring, and the NLD
is likely to make that clear quite soon.

Comment
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6. (C) We have long suspected rifts in the NLD's top
leadership, and we continue to hear reports from other
political activists that Khin Maung Swe and Win Tin are
advocating for "change" and a more active role for the NLD
among youth in particular. Still, Khin Maung Swe's
suggestions about engagement were the first time a CEC member
broke with the party line during an official meeting with us.
His assessment that the current approach has not worked
reflects an unfortunate reality. His elaboration of the
dialogue themes two days later and his articulation that a
shift is occurring within the NLD are significant. The
Uncles did not suggest to us that they discussed such a shift
in their meeting with ASSK; however, it does seem that they
are thinking seriously about how they might adjust policies
to attempt to break from the current political gridlock. It
appears they may see merit in the USG looking for new
options, too. Whether engagement efforts from the NLD and/or
the USG would gain any significant political ground from the
well-entrenched Burmese regime is open to skepticism; but
Khin Maung Swe, searching for hope, seems convinced it is
worth exploring.
DINGER