BURMA: WHERE OH WHERE HAS THAN SHWE GONE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000009 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM SUBJECT: BURMA: WHERE OH WHERE HAS THAN SHWE GONE? Classified By: P/E Chief Jennifer Harhigh for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (C) Burma's Senior General Than Shwe failed to attend this year's January 4 Independence Day dinner and reception for military officials and diplomats in Nay Pyi Taw, provoking a recurrence of rumors about his health. The Independence Day dinner was instead hosted by SPDC Vice-Chair Maung Aye. Than Shwe traditionally hosts the dinner and he was billed to do so this year. The last time he failed to do so was in 2007, when he underwent medical treatment in Singapore for heart problems. ¶2. (C) During meetings and events in Nay Pyi Taw, GOB officials told the CDA that Than Shwe was unable to host the dinner because he slightly injured his back when he stepped wrong during a pagoda visit earlier in the day. He was resting per doctor's instructions. When the CDA commented on the Senior General's noteworthy absence to GOB Minister of Hotels and Tourism Major General Soe Naing, the latter proclaimed the Senior General, aged about 76, to be in fine health, saying he golfs regularly and eschews the escalator in his building, preferring to use the stairs. When the CDA observed that Rangoon is far from Nay Pyi Taw and missing the dinner would surely stir a recurrence of rumors that surface every six weeks or so that Than Shwe is on his death bed, the Major General declined to respond. ¶3. (C) In the meantime, DAO contacts reported an unusual level of police and military presence at Military Hospital #2 in Rangoon over the weekend, fueling speculation the Senior General might have arrived there for unspecified medical reasons. ¶4. (SBU) Yet another rumor making the rounds is that Than Shwe, due to recent travel throughout the country, attending graduation ceremonies and visiting areas affected by Cyclone Nargis, skipped the dinner because he was tired and needed to recover. As usual, amid the rumors, we have no facts regarding Than Shwe's actual health or the real reason he failed to attend the Independence Day event. DINGER