INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF BURMESE LEADERSHIP MEETING IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000820 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, PACOM FOR FPA TREASURY FOR OASIA, OFAC E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2019 TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD PREL PGOV PINR BM SUBJECT: INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF BURMESE LEADERSHIP MEETING IN NOVEMBER 2009 REF: RANGOON 806 RANGOON 00000820 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA Larry Dinger for Reasons 1.4 (b and d) Burma's Generals prepare for 2010 elections; new responsibilities -------------- -------------- ¶1. (C) A Burmese businessman well-connected with senior leaders in Nay Pyi Taw informed us this week that, during the regime's quarterly leadership meeting that took place the week of November 23, Burma's generals received their marching orders for the period leading up to national elections in ¶2010. Some generals were so nervous about their prospects in the lead-up to the meeting that they sent their families on "vacation" abroad. The businessman reports that, as expected, the GOB's mass organization, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA),will in effect form one or more political parties to compete in the election. A number of senior military officers will take off their uniforms to become "civilian" politicians. Other senior military officers will stay in uniform and fill the military's 25 percent of the seats in parliament under the new constitution. Other prominent persons, like the businessman contact, have received requests from senior military officials to run for office in particular constituencies. The businessman reports that he declined two such offers "in a very polite way," and thus far has felt no repercussions. Generals intend to use ASSK, but not cede her real power -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Reportedly, Than Shwe has decided Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) can be of use in legitimizing the 2010 election effort, thus recent regime authorizations for ASSK to pay respects to ailing National League for Democracy (NLD) elders (Ref A) and to meet with foreign diplomats like EAP A/S Campbell. The intention is to use ASSK but not, in the end, to allow her to gain any real influence. Reportedly, Vice Senior General Maung Aye disagreed with the plan, believing there should be no easing of restrictions on ASSK. Caretaker government, senior conflict: Than Shwe and Maung Aye at odds -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) The businessman's senior contacts report that in a gathering of the 15 most senior military officers during the quarterly meeting, Senior General Than Shwe revealed he intends to create a "caretaker government" at some point prior to the election. (Note: Rangoon rumor has spread similar accounts, suggesting most current ministers will "resign" in order to begin campaigning, leaving governance in the hands of a small number of ministers, each overseeing several of the current portfolios.) Than Shwe purportedly told the generals that he intends to retain responsibilities to oversee the caretaker government through the elections before retiring, but that Maung Aye should retire in the near term as part of the transition to a new government. Reportedly, for the first time any of the assembled generals had ever observed, Maung Aye spoke up in direct opposition to Than Shwe in front of a group. He made clear he intends to stay actively involved. RANGOON 00000820 002.4 OF 002 Lower levels calculating their own odds; #3 sides with Than Shwe -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The businessman said other generals see the confrontation between the top two generals as the most important development of the quarterly meeting, though few dare to predict how the now-visible conflict of interests between the two most senior generals will play out. The businessman reported that General Thura Shwe Mann, the number three leader whom many presume Than Shwe is grooming as his replacement, told fellow senior officers that he is totally loyal to Than Shwe and intends to protect the Senior General's interests far into the future given "all his efforts to protect the best interests of the country." Other generals perceived Thura Shwe Mann's comments as placing his bet on Than Shwe maintaining control and being able to anoint his successor. When the businessman was asked whom he would prefer -- Than Shwe or Maung Aye -- to continue on as leader, he instantly responded: "Than Shwe because" with his several health problems "he is more likely to die in the near term!" Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) While the businessman contact has proven to know Nay Pyi Taw insider information in the past, including non-public aspects of A/S Campbell's meetings in early November, he is a businessman, not a general, so what he knows is second hand and we cannot guarantee the accuracy of his report. We have long surmised that the 2010 elections will create "rice bowl" issues for a number of senior military officers who have done well under the present configuration of authority and who face uncertainty about their political and economic futures. If, indeed, one of those nervous people is Maung Aye, the coming months could be very interesting to observe. DINGER