BURMA: SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, LIAISON MINISTERS

S E C R E T RANGOON 000702 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL BM SUBJECT: BURMA: SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, LIAISON MINISTERS ON DIALOGUE PROCESS REF: A. RANGOON 193 ¶B. RANGOON 321 Classified By: P/E Chief Jennifer Harhigh for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) Science and Technology Minister U Thaung told Charge October 19 the Burma Government has agreed to a November 3-4 visit by A/S Campbell and delegation. The Charge reiterated USG expectations for the visit, including our interest in a meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) at her residence; U Thaung indicated the GOB would insist such a meeting take place at the Government guesthouse. He also said a joint meeting for the U.S. delegation with ASSK and the National League for Democracy (NLD) Uncles would be "difficult" for the GOB to accept. U Thaung described ASSK's two meetings with Minister of Labor Aung Kyi, the GOB-designated liaison to ASSK, and ASSK's October 9 meeting with diplomats as progress stemming from the initial bilateral dialogue session in New York. ¶2. (S) During a separate meeting, the Minister of Labor proclaimed that his relations with ASSK have improved and that the GOB's approval of her meeting with diplomats was a positive step. Both U Thaung and Aung Kyi clearly expressed a perspective that the GOB expects the U.S. to make an introductory concrete gesture in response to the GOB being willing to engage. CDA countered that both sides will in time need to take steps if progress is to be made. We comment that the meetings foreshadow the bumpy road ahead for bilateral dialogue -- on issues both substantive and procedural. End summary. GOB Agrees to November 3-4 Visit -------------- ¶3. (S) During a thirty-minute meeting in Nay Pyi Taw (NPT), U Thaung told the CDA the GOB had over the weekend conveyed to its UN PermRep approval of the proposed November 3-4 visit by A/S Campbell. (Note: The Minister notified the Embassy in writing October 20 that the visit has been approved. End note.) The Charge reiterated USG expectations for the visit. The delegation expects to use Milair, with one day and night in NPT, where the GOB may set up appropriate meetings and events. During the second day in Rangoon, the delegation will expect a meeting with ASSK at her residence, preferably including the NLD Uncles. Washington expects the Embassy to schedule all other meetings in Rangoon, which may include �0A;ethnic, NGO, and diplomatic representatives. U Thaung replied the GOB is likely to permit an ASSK meeting only at the Sein Lei Kan Tha government guesthouse; a meeting at ASSK's residence is "not appropriate." He added that the GOB is unlikely to agree to a joint meeting with ASSK and the NLD Uncles. ¶4. (S) U Thaung predicted a successful visit for A/S Campbell, observing that the GOB gained experience from Senator Webb's trip. CDA observed that the visits of a Member of Congress and an Assistant Secretary are quite different; the A/S represents the Administration, which brings its own set of requirements. U Thaung promised to convey USG expectations for the visit to his superiors and said, after guidance comes down, he expects MOFA Protocol will coordinate the particulars. ¶5. (S) When asked his views on the meeting with A/S Campbell in New York and any likely GOB follow-up, U Thaung pointed to recent meetings between ASSK and Aung Kyi, as well as ASSK's session with diplomats, as positive outcomes of the New York meeting. CDA observed that the USG sees internal Burmese dialogue as important, and we encourage the GOB to continue with such steps. UNSCR 1874 -------------- ¶6. (S) Given U Thaung's &science and technology8 hat, the Charge raised UNSC Resolution 1874. The Minister noted that MOFA has declared the GOB will comply with the resolution. However, he said, U.S. sanctions policy had forced the GOB to turn to other countries which are willing to cooperate. The CDA observed that the UNSC has decided there are certain countries with which the international community must not cooperate on military matters. When the CDA inquired about possibly visiting Ministry of Science and Technology facilities around the country, U Thaung steered the conversation to the Ministry's education endeavors, which, he noted, have proceeded on the initiative of the Senior General and despite Western sanctions. Talk is Cheap -------------- ¶7. (S) During a separate meeting October 19, Labor and Relations Minister Aung Kyi began by recalling CDA's efforts earlier in the year at the NLD's behalf to gain a resumption of the Minister's dialogue with ASSK (see reftels). Aung Kyi noted his October 3 and 7 sessions with ASSK did resume the discussion, with the topic being the scope and impact of sanctions and the arranging of ASSK's subsequent session with diplomats. Aung Kyi assessed that his relations with ASSK are now "cordial" and "much improved." CDA welcomed that news, adding that the United States continues to see the need for broad dialogue, encompassing more than just sanctions. CDA summarized the policy review conclusions and sketched U.S. expectations for November's planned follow-on visit by A/S Campbell. ¶8. (S) In response, Aung Kyi repeatedly stressed the GOB expects the U.S. to make a concrete gesture to recognize the GOB's "engagement." Otherwise, he said, the dialogue is "just talk" and there will be no improvements. Describing what he sees as a "double-pronged attack" by the U.S. -- applying pressure through sanctions and through engagement -- Aung Kyi suggested the U.S. should lift sanctions step by step. The CDA replied that &attack8 is not the appropriate term. He noted the importance of political change in Burma, and observed it is difficult for the U.S. to make the first move with no signs of concrete progress on core issues by the GOB. However, if both sides work constructively, important progress is possible over time. The CDA noted the policy review had sketched out areas of other potential cooperation including counternarcotics and POW/MIA issues. Comment: The Long Road Ahead -------------- ¶9. (S) The conversations with both U Thaung and Aung Kyi preview the hard road ahead for the bilateral dialogue now under way. Agreeing to talk is a useful first step, but real substantive progress will likely be slow and frustrating. The difficulties range from differences in perception of what actions merit major policy deliverables and who moves first (chicken and egg issues) to procedural issues such as the venue for a meeting with ASSK. ¶10. (S) Burma's generals perceive they have already offered concessions by coming to the table and by allowing U.S. meetings (though supervised and circumscribed) with ASSK. They are sending clear signals they expect a positive U.S. response. Civil Service Director and Tripartite Core Group chair Kyaw Thu suggested to the CDA recently that upgrading to Ambassador in both capitals should be an easy deliverable as an interim gesture. We explained to him the political complications of that concept. It will be important in future dialogue sessions to lay out as best the USG can what particular carrots we are prepared to deliver for particular GOB concrete steps. Process also matters, particularly at this early stage in direct talks. To the extent we really care about particular meetings, as with ASSK, we believe it important to state our bottom line clearly and stick with it. We need to set a clear tone from the beginning or risk going the way of the UN, losing relevance and leverage. DINGER