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IdentifierCreatedClassificationOrigin
09RANGOON643 2009-09-23 09:34:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Rangoon
Cable title:  

BURMA: SOME BUSINESSMEN REPORTEDLY HEARING FROM

Tags:   ECON EFIN ETRD PREL PGOV PINR BM 
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9479
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK 3080
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 2403
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2282
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RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 0859
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RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1906
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RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0747
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2716
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4678
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
					  C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000643 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS, INR/EAP,
PACOM FOR FPA
TREASURY FOR OASIA, OFAC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2019
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD PREL PGOV PINR BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: SOME BUSINESSMEN REPORTEDLY HEARING FROM
NAY PYI TAW THAT USG WILL LIFT SANCTIONS

Classified By: P/E Chief Jennifer Harhigh for Reasons 1.4 (b and d).



1. (C) The GOB has recently conveyed through official
channels and via at least one businessman (septel) its desire
for better relations with the U.S.. According to an Embassy
contact, many in the private sector here think Washington is
preparing to respond positively, particularly regarding
sanctions. Tour operator Brett Melzer (protect) told Embassy
officers September 21 that many well-connected Burmese
business leaders are extremely optimistic the U.S. will lift
economic sanctions in the near term.



2. (C) Melzer told us many in the business community,
including those with close ties to Nay Pyi Taw, are convinced
the U.S. and Burma have discussed a deal in which the GOB
will allow ASSK to live under "open" house arrest where she
can receive visitors and communicate freely but not leave her
home. In return, the U.S. will end economic sanctions (no
specifics mentioned) against Burma. Melzer told us there are
two versions of this rumor. Either a deal has already been
struck at the "highest" levels and will be announced soon, or
PM Thein Sein will pitch -- and the U.S. will accept -- the
deal during the UN General Assembly.



3. (C) Melzer reports that business leaders are more upbeat
than they have been in the last 12 years. He added that the
individuals citing this alleged "deal" are rational, careful,
and not prone to misplaced optimism. Several private sector
businesspeople are actively investing in ventures, including
in the telecom sector, which only make financial sense if
sanctions are soon eased. Melzer described his contacts as
well-connected to senior Burmese leaders and assessed that
their optimism could only stem from being told by GOB
officials that change is imminent.


DINGER