BURMA: SOME BUSINESSMEN REPORTEDLY HEARING FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000643 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, PACOM FOR FPA TREASURY FOR OASIA, OFAC E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2019 TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD PREL PGOV PINR BM SUBJECT: BURMA: SOME BUSINESSMEN REPORTEDLY HEARING FROM NAY PYI TAW THAT USG WILL LIFT SANCTIONS Classified By: P/E Chief Jennifer Harhigh for Reasons 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (C) The GOB has recently conveyed through official channels and via at least one businessman (septel) its desire for better relations with the U.S.. According to an Embassy contact, many in the private sector here think Washington is preparing to respond positively, particularly regarding sanctions. Tour operator Brett Melzer (protect) told Embassy officers September 21 that many well-connected Burmese business leaders are extremely optimistic the U.S. will lift economic sanctions in the near term. ¶2. (C) Melzer told us many in the business community, including those with close ties to Nay Pyi Taw, are convinced the U.S. and Burma have discussed a deal in which the GOB will allow ASSK to live under "open" house arrest where she can receive visitors and communicate freely but not leave her home. In return, the U.S. will end economic sanctions (no specifics mentioned) against Burma. Melzer told us there are two versions of this rumor. Either a deal has already been struck at the "highest" levels and will be announced soon, or PM Thein Sein will pitch -- and the U.S. will accept -- the deal during the UN General Assembly. ¶3. (C) Melzer reports that business leaders are more upbeat than they have been in the last 12 years. He added that the individuals citing this alleged "deal" are rational, careful, and not prone to misplaced optimism. Several private sector businesspeople are actively investing in ventures, including in the telecom sector, which only make financial sense if sanctions are soon eased. Melzer described his contacts as well-connected to senior Burmese leaders and assessed that their optimism could only stem from being told by GOB officials that change is imminent. DINGER