GAMBARI PROVIDES READ-OUT OF RANGOON VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000062

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINR BM
SUBJECT: GAMBARI PROVIDES READ-OUT OF RANGOON VISIT

REF: RANGOON 059

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Classified By: CDA Larry Dinger for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

Summary
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1. (C) UNSYG Special Envoy Gambari phoned the Charge to
provide a read-out of his Jan. 31-Feb. 3 visit to Burma. He
said process issues had gone well, but "tangibles" are more
difficult. He is aware the SYG and others need progress on
those tangibles. He has sensed "some movement" within the
regime on important issues, but concrete progress is "still
to be seen." Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK),her National League
for Democracy (NLD) Uncles, and a Shan NLD group were full of
criticisms. They demanded that the regime free all political
prisoners before the SYG visits Burma. Gambari sees that as
unrealistic, though he does accept there need to be "high
expectations" for any such visit. End summary.

A special briefing for the U.S.
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2. (C) Ibrahim Gambari, the UN Secretary General's Special
Envoy to Burma, phoned the Charge at 2 p.m. on February 3,
saying he would not be able to meet a second time with chiefs
of mission during his visit. He had just received word from
the Government of Burma of a 3 p.m. meeting with Prime
Minister Thien Sein, and Gambari's flight would depart
Rangoon for Singapore at 4:30. Nonetheless, he wanted to
brief the USG.

Process is easy; tangibles more difficult
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3. (C) Gambari said this visit was better than before in
terms of process, "but that is the easy part." Attaining
"tangibles" is more difficult. He is aware that the SYG and
the international community await such tangibles, but those
"remain to be seen."

Opposition leaders being tough negotiators
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4. (C) Gambari reported that his meeting with ASSK and the
NLD Central Executive Committee went well. The opposition
figures were "hard on criticisms." ASSK stated flatly that
the SYG can't come to Burma unless all political prisoners
are freed. Gambari doesn't see that as a reasonable demand.
He understands that, clearly, one must take into account
"high expectations" for a SYG visit, but freeing all
political prisoners may be too much to ask. Gambari said his
meeting with leaders of the Shan Nationalities League for
Democracy was a "breakthrough." He had unsuccessfully asked
to meet them on each previous visit. He judged that the Shan
NLD is very close to NLD positions on the issues: "quite
tough."

Burma regime still formulating positions
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5. (C) Asked what the Burma Government has offered, Gambari
indicated he has heard little yet. He proposed to "give them
time to give positions." He said he "can see some movement"
regarding political prisoners, dialogue, and the economic
forum concept; but here too concrete progress "is still to be
seen."

Seeks close relationship via USUN
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6. (C) Gambari noted, as he had when meeting with chiefs of
mission (reftel),that he believes he has a relationship with
U.S. PermRep to the UN Rice. He asked the Charge to share
with USUN any developments on the ground in Burma for
forwarding to him. Asked if that meant the regime still is
not prepared to allow a UN political office in Burma, Gambari
said, "They don't want my presence. They are nervous, but
they have indicated willingness to consider periodic,
intermittent visits by UN political staff."

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Comment
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7. (C) The inability of Gambari to schedule an out-brief
with chiefs of mission indicates just how little control he
has had over his schedule. Still, it was good he could
phone. That he served as catalyst for a meeting of ASSK and
the NLD Uncles was certainly useful. However, Gambari's
read-out suggests very little, if any, movement took place on
the major substantive issues...unless some unexpected
breakthrough occurred in his last meeting with the PM. The
demand by ASSK, the NLD, and the Shan NLD for the release of
all political prisoners is understandable, since those
activists need to be in the midst of any genuine dialogue on
Burma's political future. But that demand is unpalatable for
the regime, which appears intent on "managing" an election in
2010 in part by keeping most charismatic opposition leaders
sealed away. We do not believe a SYG visit to Rangoon should
come cheaply for the regime. Preparation should ensure
significant progress on core issues: political prisoners and
genuine dialogue. Just how much progress is enough will
surely be the subject of conversation in New York and
Washington in the coming weeks. Certainly more is needed
than seems to have been achieved in the past four days.
DINGER