BURMA: GOB CLAIMS PEACE IN KOKANG REGION, WHICH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000573 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM SUBJECT: BURMA: GOB CLAIMS PEACE IN KOKANG REGION, WHICH IS QUIET FOR NOW REF: RANGOON 567 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Thomas Vajda for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) Summary -------------- 1.(C) The situation in the Kokang region in Northern Shan State appears to have quieted after heavy fighting on August ¶29. The Burma Army (BA),despite a few dozen admitted police and army casualties, has claimed victory, which was heralded in the state-run "New Light of Myanmar" (NLOM). Other ethnic minority groups have yet to become involved. Refugee numbers remain unconfirmed; press reports indicate that some are returning to Burma. A number of aid workers remain trapped in their compounds, safe but unable to leave the area due to road closures and a still-tense security situation. Fighting Subsides in the Kokang Region -------------- 2.(C) WFP Country Director Chris Kaye, who has a large number of staff members in the Kokang area, told us August 31 that fighting between Kokang factions and the BA continued over the weekend with the heaviest fighting in the early morning of August 29. Kaye said the fighting took place in Laogai close to the WFP compound, which was hit by small arms fire. Kaye confirmed a civilian was killed near WFP's compound, but it is unclear if the individual was associated with his agency. Chinese press reports claim the situation on the border is calm. The GOB's Take -------------- 3.(SBU) The GOB finally broke its silence by running a front-page press story, along with several other articles and photos, in the August 31 edition of the NLOM. The paper emphasized that the situation was calm and that the violence was the fault of "only four persons." The NLOM accuses Phon Kya Shin, Phon Kya Phu, Phon Tar Shwin, and Phon Tarli (all loyal to former Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) Chairmen Peng Jiasheng) of violating Burmese laws regarding arms trafficking, noting that they have fled the region. The articles add that despite efforts to resolve the situation, fighting broke out between the BA and soldiers loyal to the lawbreakers. According to the NLOM's version of events, the MNDAA faction took federal policemen hostage and opened fire on security forces, causing the BA to "launch counterattacks for their security and that of the captured (policemen)." Uncharacteristically, the NLOM and state-run television ran extremely graphic photos of policemen and soldiers allegedly shot by the MNDAA. 4.(C) Embassy sources told us the MNDAA executed the 10 policemen and two enlisted soldiers depicted in the NLOM photographs after capturing and disarming them, and locking them in a cell. The security forces were members of the original team that conducted the raid on the Kokang arms factory. Casualty and Refugee Numbers Still Unclear -------------- 5.(SBU) Estimates of casualty figures vary. The NLOM claims that 29 policemen died and 13 were wounded, and that 11 BA troops were killed. The New Light also reports eight MNDAA members were killed. International press reports also cite eight MNDAA casualties but claim BA troop deaths number 26. According to press reports, the Yunnan Red Cross confirmed that one person was killed in China by shelling coming from Burma. Post cannot confirm any of these statistics. 6.(C) We also are unable to confirm refugee numbers, RANGOON 00000573 002 OF 002 estimates of which vary greatly in the press. The two major destinations for refugees are Yunnan province and the Shan State capital, Lashio. Chinese press reports claim 13,000 are seeking refuge in Yunnan province, in particular the town of Nansan. UNHCR Country Director Raja Panday told us UNHCR China has still not been granted access to the region. Other press reports and an informal translation of a press conference by the Yunnan provincial government claim as many as 37,000 have fled into the PRC. Chinese press reports also state that people are starting to return to the Kokang area. NGOs Safe for Now -------------- 7.(C) Chris Kaye reports that 117 WFP staff and dependents are sheltered with adequate supplies on the WFP compound in Laogai. Personnel from other NGOs, including Adventist Development and Relief Agency (ADRA),Asian Harm Reduction Network (AHRN),and Association of Medical Doctors of Asia (AMDA) are also staying on the compound. The Japanese International Cooperation Agency has 37 staff members on its own compound in the area. The UN Security Management Team raised the security threat level that allows for the evacuation of nonessential staff and dependents from the region; however road closures and the security situation preclude evacuation at this time. Further Resistance? -------------- 8.(C) Reports still vary on the probable fate of the Kokang loyal to the anti-regime faction. A Shan-based newspaper claims 200 MNDAA fighters joined the BA but another 800 are still resisting. (Note: Shan newspapers are not reliable but in this case may have better information than normal.) Open press reports claim that 700 MNDAA troops fled to China and laid down arms; this claim remains unsubstantiated. (Note: The Chinese Embassy here declined to speak to us about the situation.) Comment -------------- 9.(C) The situation in Kokang appears calm for the moment but will likely remain tense. Other ethnic-minority ceasefire groups are watching the Kokang situation warily. The GOB is claiming victory with few casualties, but any involvement by the larger ceasefire groups such as the Wa or Kachin (reftel) would likely throw the regime's carefully crafted ceasefire arrangements into serious jeopardy, a fact not lost on those who prefer peace over renewed armed struggle. VAJDA