KOKANG SITUATION TENSE, REPORTS OF BURMESE ARMY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000567 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM SUBJECT: KOKANG SITUATION TENSE, REPORTS OF BURMESE ARMY CASUALTIES REF: A. RANGOON 447 ¶B. RANGOON 478 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Thomas Vajda for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) Summary -------------- 1.(C) The situation in Northern Shan State near the Burma-China border in Kokang territory remains tense after skirmishes last night between Burmese Army (BA) soldiers and the Kokang ceasefire group -- the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). Exile press and Embassy sources report small numbers of BA soldiers killed and injured, and up to 70 captured, although we cannot confirm these numbers at this time. Press reports claim 10,000-50,000 Burmese have fled to China, though that number is likely exaggerated. Meanwhile, relief organizations have suspended operations, but some staff members have been trapped by the fighting. End summary. Violence Ratchets Up in the Region -------------- 2.(C) The MNDAA, the first armed ethnic minority militant group to sign a ceasefire agreement in 1989, is comprised of an estimated 600 to 1,000 soldiers, though some estimates put the number as high as 2,000. Tensions between the Burmese junta and the MNDAA have been escalating since early August, when the BA accused MNDAA Chairman Peng Jiasheng and his two sons of arms and drug trafficking. The BA quickly issued an arrest warrant, driving them into hiding. 3.(C) International press sources reported an August 24 coup at MNDAA headquarters, exposing factions within the organization -- one supportive of the junta and one, led by Peng Jiasheng, opposed. Embassy sources and press reports claim BA troop presence in the region has increased by 1,000 soldiers, and until August 27, the violence appeared limited to the Kokang factions. However, Embassy and CG Chiang Mai contacts, as well as exile news outlets, report clashes between Kokang factions and the BA on August 28 near the Burma-China border that resulted in BA casualties. Some reports, which we cannot independently confirm, indicate small numbers of BA soldier killed and injured, up to 70 captured. Press estimates of the number of Burmese fleeing to China range from 10,000 to as high as 50,000, but these numbers also cannot be confirmed at this time and are likely exaggerated. Border Guard Force Proposal Likely Behind Tension -------------- -------------- 4.(C) According to Embassy contacts in the region, internal turmoil within the Kokang ceasefire group over the regime-proposed Border Guard Force (BGF) (see refs A and B) appears to have sparked the current violence. The GOB apparently is seeking to take advantage of the infighting and pursue a "divide and conquer" strategy to pit Kokang factions against each other. According to Embassy Rangoon and British Embassy sources, Chairman Peng Jiasheng's faction is staunchly opposed to the junta's proposed BGF. Embassy sources tell us the BA appears to be soliciting the support of second tier MNDAA leaders who favor the BGF to persuade them to take charge of the MNDAA and oversee the transition to the BGF. The BA appears to be using allegations of arms and drug trafficking as a pretext to target those MNDAA members opposed to the plan. Regime Denies Clashes, Relief Groups in the Region -------------- -------------- 5.(C) DAO spoke on August 27 with a colonel in the Military Security Agency (MSA),who denied any serious fighting is RANGOON 00000567 002 OF 002 taking place. The regime is also disputing press reports that MSA Chief Lt. Gen. Ye Myint's has been in the region. DAO's contacts, claiming that the situation in the Kokang area is "normal," said the GOB will issue a press release on the matter at an unspecified time. 6.(C) WFP Country Director Chris Kaye told us August 28 that WFP staff in the region have gathered on a WFP compound but are not yet able to leave due to fighting. CARE Myanmar staff has apparently been able to leave the area. The BA has assured local and international NGOs operating in the area of their safety. We have heard from contacts that the BA late afternoon on August 27 closed the road to the main Kokang city of Laogai. Ceasefire Groups on Alert -------------- 7.(S) Kachin peace negotiator Saboi Jum told us that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) have agreed not to join the skirmishes unless attacked. The KIA 4th Brigade, located in northern Shan State near the Kokang region, is under instructions to defend themselves as they see fit. The Karen National Liberation Army, the Shan State Army-South, and the Karenni National Progressive Party have allegedly agreed to support ceasefire groups if they are attacked, according to Saboi Jum. There have been rumors that the UWSA has joined the fighting, but our NGO contacts in the region have refuted this claim. Other Embassy sources believe the Wa may be offering clandestine support to the Kokang. Comment -------------- 7.(C) Burmese Army involvement in the Kokang fighting has been corroborated by multiple sources, though the details, including on casualties, are not yet clear. As for the regime's motives, we find plausible our contacts' interpretation that the GOB is seeking to fracture the MNDAA and eliminate opposition to the BGF, part of its effort to prepare the ground for the 2010 elections. If the GOB is successful in securing MNDAA's acceptance of the BGF, it would provide the regime with a symbolic victory and serve as a demonstration to other ceasefire groups resisting the proposal. However, the recent operation could create problems for the regime should the Kokang violence expand and bring in other ceasefire groups already questioning the BGF. VAJDA