NLD UNCLES SEE POSSIBLE OPENING IN THAN SHWE'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000527 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM SUBJECT: NLD UNCLES SEE POSSIBLE OPENING IN THAN SHWE'S STATEMENT, EASING OF ASSK'S HOUSE ARREST REF: 524 RANGOON 00000527 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Officer Marc Shaw for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The NLD is taking a two-track approach in responding publicly to the Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) verdict: strongly condemning the trial itself, but also acknowledging the easing of restrictions of her house arrest. Privately, Central Executive Committee (CEC) members welcomed Than Shwe's reference to national reconciliation in ASSK's commutation and hoped the Senior General's first-ever use of that term signals a willingness to engage in dialogue. According to her lawyer, ASSK herself sees Than Shwe's directive as grounds for optimism and "good in principle." Several NLD members noted that ASSK's release was unlikely and suggested that dialogue could proceed with ASSK under detention, as had happened in the past, while insisting she must be involved. The Uncles expressed gratitude for the President's and Secretary's statements on ASSK's conviction, and stressed the importance of continued international pressure on the regime. End Summary. NLD Reaction to the ASSK Verdict -------------- ¶2. (C) In an August 12 meeting with DCM and Poloff, NLD CEC members expressed anger at ASSK's conviction. Echoing her legal team's arguments in court, the Uncles remarked that ASSK should never have been put on trial because the law under which she was charged had been abolished when the 1974 Constitution was annulled. The trial was simply a "political instrument." The Uncles said they were not surprised by the outcome, however, indicating they had expected ASSK to be convicted. The Uncles put out a public statement on August 13 along these lines, condemning the trial and verdict. ¶3. (C) At the same time, CEC members told DCM they "appreciated" Than Shwe's reference to national reconciliation in his statement commuting ASSK's sentence to house arrest (reftel). According to the Uncles, this is the first time Than Shwe has used that term, which they viewed as both deliberate and potentially significant. Hopefully, Than Shwe's remarks indicate a greater willingness of the regime to engage in meaningful dialogue. The NLD members also cited the more lenient terms of her house arrest, particularly access to visitors and the potential pardon for good behavior, as another possible signal from the regime. ¶4. (C) The Uncles noted that Than Shwe's directives on ASSK's house arrest were just words, and that the true test was how they would be put into practice. Nevertheless, the NLD felt it was important to recognize Than Shwe's statement with one of their own. The party therefore released a second statement on August 13 that expressed the NLD's desire for "national reconciliation" and "general harmony" with the regime, and cited ASSK's remarks at her sentencing in support of "opportunities to work together for peace and prosperity for her country and the world." The statement concluded by urging the SPDC to "grant amnesty for the unconditional release of ASSK and all political prisoners and to begin a dialogue as soon as possible." ¶5. (C) NLD Spokesperson and ASSK lawyer U Nyan Win told us separately that in an August 12 meeting with ASSK, she indicated that she "accepts with optimism the four points laid out by Than Shwe in his directive," saying she sees them as "good in principle." According to U Nyan Win, ASSK added that it would be good for the nation if all stakeholders could work to materialize the words contained in that directive. (Note: The NLD told us that ASSK, her lawyers, and Special Branch police were scheduled to meet August 12 to discuss procedures for ASSK to receive visitors, but U Nyan Win confirmed that meeting did not take place.) RANGOON 00000527 002.2 OF 002 Dialogue and ASSK's Release -------------- ¶6. (C) NLD member Khin Maung Shwe, echoed by others at the meeting, noted it was unlikely the SPDC would release ASSK anytime soon. A sole focus on her release, Khin Maung Shwe said, was not productive, and he remarked that a genuine dialogue with the regime should be a higher priority. CEC member U Nyunt Wai and others appeared to agree, stressing the NLD's willingness to engage in dialogue without preconditions. "Nothing will happen without dialogue first," U Nyunt Wai said. Once dialogue began, the two sides could discuss a range of issues, including release of political prisoners, the Constitution, and the 2010 elections. One point was clear: ASSK, as the party's leader, must be actively involved. That said, as Khin Maung Shwe noted, ASSK could hold talks with the regime while under house arrest, which had happened in the past. In fact, he noted, the NLD won its landslide victory in 1990 with ASSK under detention. The hope was that dialogue with the regime could lead to a situation in which the regime would release ASSK and other political prisoners. Asking for their release up front was likely a non-starter. USG Statements; Need for Continued Pressure -------------- ¶7. (C) DCM presented copies of the President's and Secretary's statement to the Uncles, reciting them aloud since some members had trouble reading the texts. The Uncles expressed appreciation for the statements and stressed that continued pressure by the U.S., EU, UN, and others is essential. The "relaxation" of Than Shwe's rhetoric did not come out of "thin air," they said. Rather, it was the result of "sustained international pressure." Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Internal NLD deliberations continue on how best to approach dialogue with the regime. The Uncles sounded their outrage over ASSK's conviction at the outset of the meeting, but very quickly turned to the implications of Than Shwe's statement. Like everyone else, they are trying to decipher the Senior General's intent, but their initial positive assessment came as somewhat of a surprise. We've heard a number of observers here, Burmese and expat alike, describe Than Shwe's statement and the potentially relaxed conditions of ASSK's house arrest as an "opportunity" -- and it was interesting to hear the Uncles voice essentially the same opinion. They know the regime well enough, however, to remain cautious and will watch to see whether, and how, Than Shwe's pledges will be implemented. DINGER