NLD UNCLES AND CDA EXCHANGE VIEWS ON NEW U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000050

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR BM
SUBJECT: NLD UNCLES AND CDA EXCHANGE VIEWS ON NEW U.S.
ADMINISTRATION, PARTY PRIORITIES, ELECTIONS

Classified By: P/E Chief Jennifer Harhigh for Reaons 1.4 (b) & (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) During a collegial January 20 give-and-take with
members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) Central
Executive Committee (CEC),aka the "Uncles," the Charge
reaffirmed the USG's support for a democratic future for
Burma, noting that backing for the cause of democracy in
Burma is bipartisan and will surely continue under the new
Administration. The Charge added that he has repeatedly made
clear to senior GOB officials that creating an artificial
election will not gain international respect. Burma needs
genuine political reform including dialogue with the NLD and
the release of political prisoners, including Aung San Suu
Kyi. The Uncles sought Charge's perspective concerning
various aspects of Burma's political future and shared their
own perspectives as well. Several Uncles indicated they want
to focus on obtaining a democratic constitution rather than
on elections in 2010. They said the NLD's priorities
continue to be the release of all political prisoners, an
inclusive political dialogue, and the recognition of the 1990
elections. The Uncles said UN efforts have yielded no
tangible results thus far, and they noted that the worldwide
economic crisis is beginning to take its toll in Burma. End
summary.

2010 Elections: What is Meant by Free and Fair?
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2. (C) The Charge requested the January 20 meeting as an
opportunity to discuss the transition process for a new U.S.
administration and to solicit views on current political
developments in Burma. The Charge assured the Uncles that
during all meetings he has with GOB senior officials, he
stresses the need for genuine political reform, including
dialogue with the NLD and ethnic groups and the release of
Aung San Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners.


3. (C) The Uncles raised the Burma regime's new constitution
and plans for elections in 2010. The Charge noted he has no
guidance yet from the new Administration in Washington, but
in his personal view the regime's current constitution and
coming elections appear intended to preserve the role of the
military. The Charge added that he has on several occasions
made clear to GOB officials that creating an artificial
election will not gain international respect. He noted
Foreign Minister Nyan Win's pledge to the UNGA last fall that
elections in 2010 would be "free and fair." He said he has
stressed to GOB Ministers that "free and fair" has real
meaning to the U.S. and other international observers.
Elections would need to be fully inclusive of all political
actors, including current political prisoners, who would need
to be freed to participate, or not, as they choose without
restrictions; the process would need to permit open
discussion and exhibit credible voting procedures; and all
would have to respect the results.


4. (C) The Charge observed that the Burmese people and
political leaders like the NLD will need to decide for
themselves the politics of whether to participate in the
lead-up to elections, thereby testing the regime's
willingness to invoke international standards, or to reject
the constitution and elections out of hand as a sham. In
1990, the NLD took the risk of competing, won, and gained
tremendous international legitimacy that still endures; but
today's regime, with its very flawed new constitution, does
appear intent to control any electoral process to ensure its
desired result. As of now, the Charge noted, it appears some
democracy advocates are leaning toward participating, some
against. The Uncles agreed that pro-democracy elements are
not united on an approach. When asked about efforts to
communicate among democracy groups, the Uncles noted the risk
involved in any outreach.


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NLD's Public Stance on 2010
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5. (C) Asked about the NLD's public stance on the
elections, Uncle Nyunt Wai observed that the party publicly
rejected the new constitution and the referendum of last May,
but he acknowledged the party has not yet taken a public
position on the election plan. The Uncles do intend to
announce the NLD's position at an appropriate time, but not
yet. Some Uncles expressed a strong preference to focus on
the need for dialogue with the regime on a democratic
constitution rather than to divert attention to flawed
elections. The Charge observed that people with democratic
sentiments look to the NLD for leadership, and the absence of
guidance from the Uncles could leave a political void. He
inquired whether the party has been communicating with those
Burmese who are looking for a way out of the current
political stalemate. In response, Nyunt Wai said it is
dangerous to talk to others.


6. (C) According to CEC member Khin Maung Swe, released
from prison along with Win Tin in September, the party's
priorities are the release of prisoners (including Aung San
Suu Kyi),genuine political dialogue, and recognition of the
results of the 1990 elections because the party "owes" that
to the people. Khin Maung Swe encouraged the incoming Obama
Administration to focus on prisoner release and dialogue,
rather than on sanctions as he suggested the outgoing
administration had done.

UN "lost"
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7. (C) The Charge solicited the Uncles views on UN efforts,
including the thought of any more visits by Special Envoy
Gambari and SYG Ban. U Nyunt Wai proclaimed that SYG Ban is
"lost" and that UN efforts have not produced tangible gains.
He added that the General Assembly should focus only on one
topic -- the release of Aung San Suu Kyi -- rather than the
long Burma agenda it usually considers. (Note: in a previous
meeting, the Uncles indicated to us they would welcome a Ban
visit even without preconditions since it would raise the
profile of Burma's problems.)

Little Agreement on the Role of Youths
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8. (C) When asked about the role of youths in the NLD and
in politics in general, the CEC members and their colleagues
shared a variety of views. One noted that youths are
skittish about coming to the NLD's headquarters because to do
so is dangerous; another said youths are active but
undecided. Youths living in exile in particular cast "no"
votes during the referendum at Burmese embassies abroad, and
they express discontent in other ways. A CEC member
acknowledged that some youths inside Burma are considering
how to respond to the 2010 election. When asked, the Uncles
declined to say what the party is attempting to do in the
current restricted environment to attract more youths.

Uncles on Engagement, Humanitarian Assistance
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9. (C) The Uncles are curious about the new
administration's policy on Burma. Win Tin noted that he
supports President Obama's statements about the need for
"change," and he added that if the U.S. were to engage at a
high level with GOB officials, it must be about "regime
change." The Charge reiterated that he does not yet have
guidance from the new Administration but that the need for
political reform in Burma is at the core of USG policy. He
added that a military intervention, which some equate with
the term "regime change" is unrealistic to contemplate.


10. (C) When asked their views on the potential expansion
of international humanitarian assistance, NLD officials had

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differing opinions. Khin Maung Swe noted that humanitarian
assistance could serve to develop democratic processes; but
MP-elect Than Nyein, freed from prison last September,
alleged that aid intended for cyclone victims had been
misappropriated, and he expressed concern that the regime
could gain political advantage from assistance. The Charge
noted that the USG has not been able to document any
significant leakage of U.S. post-cyclone assistance, and,
from visits to the Delta, it is clear Nargis victims are
fully aware of who their benefactors have been (international
donors) and have not been (the regime). He suggested that
international assistance in the areas of health, education
and food security, if provided directly to the people via
NGOs, does not support, and in fact works to subvert, the
regime's legitimacy.

Economic Crisis Starting to Take a Toll
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11. (C) When asked about the effects of the global economic
crisis on the party's constituents, economist and CEC member
Nyunt Wai noted that although the full impact is unknown,
some farmers have reported they must sell rice at a loss.
Win Tin said he expects the Burmese economy to worsen, and he
speculated that it could force a postponement of the planned
2010 elections.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Although 92-year-old CEC Chair U Aung Shwe did not
attend the meeting because his health is "weak," the other
Uncles showed up in full force to engage in a healthy
exchange of views. U Win Tin appeared to be running the
show, and we were encouraged by his inclusiveness; he
repeatedly encouraged others in the room, including more
junior NLD officials, to speak up and share their views. In
past meetings with the Uncles, a few CEC members usually
dominated the conversation. Furthermore, we observed much
more internal discussion among the CEC leaders during this
meeting, leading us to surmise that the NLD leaders are still
struggling internally about their future strategy. They very
understandably do not endorse the new constitution; they are
battered by regime surveillance and harassment; they have
little ability to communicate, even indirectly, with their
leader, Aung San Suu Kyi; and they hate the thought of
attempting to compete in elections with an unfair playing
field. On the other hand, they acknowledge that some other
pro-democracy elements, including some young politicians, may
well participate. (Note: some of our contacts raise the
specter that the NLD might end up left behind, though the
Uncles expressed no such concern.) They seemed to welcome
the opportunity to discuss thorny issues with someone other
than themselves, though, throughout, the Charge emphasized
that his thoughts were merely his own, without Washington
instruction, and that, of course, the NLD and the people, not
any outsiders, will have to make the tough judgments about
many aspects of politics in Burma, including the 2010
elections.

DINGER