BURMA: DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SPEAKS FRANKLY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000039 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR EAID UN BM SUBJECT: BURMA: DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SPEAKS FRANKLY ABOUT UN VISITS AND DOMESTIC POLITICS REF: A. STATE 3932 ¶B. 2008 STATE 131926 Classified By: Charge Larry Dinger for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) Burma Deputy Foreign Minister U Kyaw Thu engaged in an hour-long one-on-one conversation with Charge on Jan. 20. The meeting was at Charge,s request. MFA asked that the Charge come alone, and, after dismissing an MFA note-taker, U Kyaw Thu said he wanted to talk freely. He then took a series of questions, evading some but providing remarkably open responses to others. After seeking assurance the news would be kept secret (please protect the source),he confirmed that UN Special Envoy Gambari will visit Burma Jan. 31-Feb. 3. U Kyaw Thu implied that any possible follow-on visit by SYG Ban might not take place until April. He said the GOB has not yet agreed to a proposed February visit by UN Human Rights Rapporteur Quintana. ¶2. (S) In response to questions, U Kyaw Thu criticized Burma,s military leadership and described how two sides within the GOB are forming in the lead-up to the regime,s 2010 elections: the senior generals and their group, who intend the elections to result in a "puppet" government still under military control; and a second group that is dissatisfied with the past 20 years and sees a need for change. U Kyaw Thu said he has been approached to take a role in the elections and beyond; but he may simply retire. He predicted that politics will turn "dirty" in the second half of 2009 as the two military sides maneuver. Turning to the UN-ASEAN-GOB Tripartite Core Group (TCG) mechanism for post-cyclone relief, U Kyaw Thu, the Chair, reported on the Jan. 17 ASEAN Humanitarian Task Force (HTF) meeting in Bangkok that discussed but did not decide on proposals for extending and/or expanding the TCG. The HTF did decide to roll out a report on post-cyclone aid needs (the PONREPP) in Bangkok on Feb. 9. The Charge also touched on Burma,s proposed Global Fund application and the inauguration in Washington. End summary. UN visits? Gambari on for Jan. 31-Feb 3; SYG Ban later? -------------- -------------- ¶3. (S) When asked if UN Special Envoy Gambari will visit Burma soon, U Kyaw Thu (strictly protect) responded: "Keep this secret: the visit is set for Jan. 31 to Feb. 3." Asked about possible meetings, agenda items, or conditions, U Kyaw Thu said he has not been privy to that information yet, except to note that, as Chair of the Tripartite Core Group (TCG) mechanism for post-Cyclone Nargis relief, he has been informed that Gambari has requested and will receive a meeting with the TCG. ¶4. (C) Asked about UNSYG Ban,s plans, U Kyaw Thu noted that the concept of a Ban visit in December had been in the context of a UN-ASEAN Summit that was postponed and has not yet been rescheduled. While the ASEAN Summit is now to take place in Thailand at the end of February, that is to be an ASEAN-only event, with other meetings, such as the UN-ASEAN Summit, likely to take place in April. Asked about reports that UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Quintana is to visit Burma in mid-February, U Kyaw Thu said the UN has proposed the February dates, but the Government of Burma has not yet responded. U Kyaw Thu noted that the Home Affairs Ministry, not Foreign Affairs, handles that issue. U Kyaw Thu said he has no knowledge of a proposed ILO visit. Low regard for the Generals; high regard for civil service -------------- -------------- ¶5. (S) As always in meetings with senior GOB officials, Charge discussed U.S. concerns about human rights, political prisoners, and the lack of democracy development. U Kyaw Thu RANGOON 00000039 002 OF 003 acknowledged the USG views. Asked his views of the current regime, U Kyaw Thu, in the one-on-one setting, was surprisingly forthcoming. He expressed low regard for most military-officer ministers, saying most were inexperienced and unimpressive, even in their military careers. Most do not handle their portfolios well, looking at issues only from a military perspective. Asked about the capacity of the civil service, U Kyaw Thu said he knows plenty of highly qualified civil servants who could capably be ministers. He expressed confidence there would be no problem in managing governance if the military were to depart. 2010 Elections -- not a pretty picture; factions forming -------------- -------------- ¶6. (S) Asked about the regime,s planned 2010 elections -- would they be stage-managed or might they actually make a difference? -- U Kyaw Thu noted that the senior generals are "entrenched." They have economic interests to protect, and they see no benefit in change. That said, two sides are forming inside the GOB with regard to 2010. On one side, the senior generals and their close allies intend the election to result in a "puppet" government, with the military retaining control behind the scenes. The senior generals have already selected a group of high-ranking officers to take off their uniforms and run in 2010. U Kyaw Thu said he has seen that list. The Mayor of Rangoon is on it; the Minister of Social Welfare (brother in law of Vice-Senior General Maung Aye) is not. The other side that is forming sees a real need for change, realizing that Burma cannot afford another 20 years like the last 20. U Kyaw Thu is uncertain what will happen, but he predicts that the last half of 2009 will be "dirty," as the sides maneuver for position. ¶7. (S) U Kyaw Thu said some of the participants, presumably on the "other" side, have asked him to participate in 2010 and in governance thereafter. He is not at all sure he wants to be involved. He turns 60 in September, the current civil service mandatory retirement age, though he hears reports the retirement age will be raised to 65. He and his wife have talked the matter over at length. He is reluctant to get involved in politics, his wife is even more so. Simply retiring to play golf is appealing. On the other hand, he said, the country needs better leadership. Cyclone Nargis relief -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Asked about an ASEAN Humanitarian Task Force (HTF) meeting in Bangkok on Jan. 17, U Kyaw Thu said attendance was ASEAN only. Even the UN ResRep, a member of the TCG who traveled to Bangkok for the meeting, was not allowed to observe. Discussion included the possibility of extending the TCG beyond its current expiration in July and/or expanding its mandate. No decisions were reached. The HTF did agree to launch the PONREPP (the TCG-orchestrated report on continuing post-Nargis relief/recovery needs) in Bangkok on February 9. U Kyaw Thu said the ambassadorial corps in Rangoon will receive invitations to attend. (Note: Charge had already been planning a working trip to Bangkok for that general period.) Senior officials will return to capitals for further discussions about the TCG and other issues, with the expectation that leaders will discuss the TCG at the ASEAN Summit in Thailand at the end of February. Charge informed U Kyaw Thu that the U.S. sees value in the TCG and would like to see its mandate extended (Ref A). ¶9. (C) Asked the GOB view of the TCG, U Kyaw Thu expressed concern that the generals will be opposed to extension or expansion. They see the mechanism and the increased international access it provides as a threat to their control. They are military and often don,t think in broader terms. Still, U Kyaw Thu predicted that the TCG will be extended, given that international post-cyclone assistance will inevitably need to continue beyond July. However, his guess is that the the post-2010-election government will RANGOON 00000039 003 OF 003 "spell the end" of the TCG. There will be a view that post-cyclone assistance is no longer needed. U Kyaw Thu was even more pessimistic about the thought of expanding the TCG mandate to non-cyclone-related issues or geography. Global Fund, Visas -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The Charge briefed U Kyaw Thu on the USG,s perspective of Burma,s proposed Global Fund (GF) application (Ref B),noting that MFA,s role in processing visa requests will be important for any successful reintroduction of the program. Asked if a TCG-type mechanism might be useful in the GF context, U Kyaw Thu offered no comment. Regarding the TCG,s role on post-Nargis visas, U Kyaw Thu said he can only cut through the bureaucracy for single-entry, two-entry, or "one-return" visas; any requests for "multiple entry" must enter the normal, and often lengthy, visa consideration process outside the TCG. Obama Administration -------------- ¶11. (C) U Kyaw Thu commented that Jan. 20 is an important day for the U.S., with the inauguration of a new government. The Charge agreed, and invited U Kyaw Thu to an American Center event on Jan. 21 that would re-play the inauguration festivities in Washington (which were to take place in the middle of the night in Rangoon). U Kyaw Thu declined, citing other commitments; but he did request a DVD of the event. We have provided it. Comment -------------- ¶12. (S) U Kyaw Thu,s only explanation for turning the meeting into a private session was that he thought it might be useful to talk without a report of the discussion reaching his superiors. He added that MFA is the only ministry that does not have to seek permission from the generals for meetings with foreign diplomats; and U Kyaw Thu said he does not feel obliged to automatically report his conversations up the chain. His critical comments about the military leadership refect what we see as reality. His revelation of two sides forming within the military in light of the coming election and his prediction that "things will get dirty" in six months or so are in line with what we have speculated might happen, given that surely some military officers are not satisfied with the approach the senior generals have taken on important issues including the economy, the response to the 2007 Saffron Revolution, and the slow reaction to the cyclone. The Charge will seek additional opportunities to interact with U Kyaw Thu, and the Embassy will stay alert to more information about the state of political play in usually-opaque Burma. DINGER