BURMA: SINGAPORE SENIOR MINISTER GOH - THAN SHWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000364

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2019
TAGS: BM PGOV PHUM PREL SN
SUBJECT: BURMA: SINGAPORE SENIOR MINISTER GOH - THAN SHWE
MEETING

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Classified By: Political Officer Sean K. O'Neill for Reasons 1.4 (b) &
(d)

Summary
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1. (SBU) According to the Singapore Ambassador in Rangoon,
Singapore Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong had a "frank and
candid exchange of views" with his "old friends" Burmese
Senior General Than Shwe and PM Thein Sein in a meeting on
June 9. Goh flagged serious international concerns about the
2010 elections, the Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) trial, and her
role in the political process. He suggested the regime
consider commuting any court sentence, since the legitimacy
of elections will require ASSK to be available to campaign
for her party. Goh described the impact of such issues on
the ongoing U.S. policy review. Than Shwe appeared to take
Goh's comments about the U.S. review on board. He promised
"free and fair" elections in 2010, but complained that ASSK
sticks to her "old ideas." He said he is prepared to meet
with her if she calls for lifting of sanctions and abandons
confrontational and obstructive actions (all a standard
regime formulation). End summary.


2. (SBU) On June 16, Singapore Ambassador to Burma Robert
Chua briefed the diplomatic corps on Singapore Senior
Minister Goh's June 9 meetings with Than Shwe and Prime
Minister Thein Sein in Nay Pyi Taw. Each meeting lasted for
over an hour. Goh came as "an old friend," and the leaders
had "a frank and candid conversation." During the June 8-11
visit, Goh also traveled to Rangoon, Mandalay, and Taungyi in
Shan State where he met with the respective regional military
commanders.

2010 Elections
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3. (SBU) Goh proposed to Than Shwe that the run-up to
elections in 2010 is critical for Burma's internal stability.
The international community is watching closely. It is
important for the Burmese people and the international
community to perceive the elections as free, fair, and
inclusive. Those judgments will determine if the elections
are seen as credible. Goh said that, if ASSK is shut out of
the 2010 election process, the vote will be seen to lack
legitimacy. If ASSK is in jail or remains in detention or
house arrest during the election process, the international
community would view the regime as having taken advantage of
the Yettaw incident to deny ASSK the chance to campaign for
her party.

ASSK Trial
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4. (SBU) Goh told Than Shwe he believes the ASSK trial is a
domestic matter, but it has an international dimension the
GOB should not ignore. Goh suggested that, while the legal
process should be allowed to run its course, the regime has
the prerogative to commute any sentence that is eventually
handed down.

US Policy Review
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5. (SBU) Goh noted to Than Shwe that the U.S. is reviewing
its foreign policies and President Obama has a genuine
interest in working to reach out to countries with which the
U.S. has had difficult relations, including Burma, even
though Burma "is not a priority compared to direct threats
from some other countries." Goh commented that ASSK's arrest
and trial have complicated the U.S. policy review regarding
constructive engagement with Burma. When asked, Chua said
Than Shwe's reaction was to acknowledge the point about the
U.S. review, but he did not respond substantively.


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Than Shwe's Rejoinder
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6. (SBU) According to Chua, Than Shwe and Thein Sein both
declared that the GOB is committed to free and fair elections
in 2010. Than Shwe lamented that it is difficult to talk to
ASSK because she has persisted in sticking to her "old
ideas." Than Shwe said he has been forced to make a choice
between national stability and accommodating ASSK's demands.
Reflecting a position the regime first took in October 2007,
Than Shwe declared that, as ASSK is responsible for
international sanctions, Than Shwe is prepared to meet with
her if she calls for lifting of sanctions and abandons
confrontational and destructive actions. Goh responded by
referring to ASSK's meeting with representatives from the
diplomatic corps on May 20, when she mentioned national
reconciliation, expressed hope that something good could come
from the Yettaw incident, and said she does not want to use
Yettaw to hit at the GOB.

The Singaporean Take Away
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7. (SBU) Ambassador Chua said Singapore believes Than Shwe
understood the messages conveyed by Senior Minister Goh, but
it remains to be seen how the regime will follow up.

Comment
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8. (C) Prior to the briefing, Ambassador Chua used a
pull-aside with Charge to confirm that Singapore Foreign
Minister Yeo conveyed the substance of the Secretary's phone
message to Senior Minister Goh just as the Goh party reached
Nay Pyi Taw. While Chua made no mention of the Secretary's
conversation in his dip-corps briefing, it appears clear that
Goh did convey quite clearly the USG message to Burma's most
senior leadership. As Chua noted, it remains to be seen how
the regime will respond.

DINGER