BURMA: KACHIN NLD DISCUSSES U.S. POLICY; ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000222

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: KACHIN NLD DISCUSSES U.S. POLICY; ELECTIONS

Classified By: Poloff Chelsia C. Wheeler for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

Summary
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1. (C) Charge Dinger and poloff traveled to Kachin State in
Burma's far north April 3-7 to take the political temperature
and observe an EMBASSY small-grant environmental project.
Police Special Branch (SB) attention made political
discussions difficult, though brave National League for
Democracy (NLD) officials agreed to meet. The Kachin NLD
thinks U.S.-Government of Burma (GOB) engagement is "an
excellent idea," and the primary goals should be the release
all political prisoners and the commencement of talks among
the GOB, NLD, and ethnic groups. On the 2010 elections, the
Kachin NLD awaits promulgation of the rules, but expects the
regime effectively to bar NLD participation. End Summary.


2. (SBU) During an April 3-7 trip to Kachin State, Charge
and poloff first traveled to Indawgyi Lake, Burma's largest
lake in Kachin's southwest, to observe an embassy-funded
small-grant project that is encouraging a Burmese
environmental NGO to work with village committees to
establish "no fishing" zones. Fish stocks have declined
noticeably in recent years, endangering the local villages'
protein supply and potentially creating problems for
migratory birds.

Police oversight
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3. (C) As mandated by GOB regulation, the EMBASSY sought
and received permission for the Indawgyi visit. Since there
are only two flights a week, the intent was to schedule
meetings in Mitkyina, Kachin's capital, as well. The
military regional commander, who some describe as the
de-facto governor of Kachin State, declined to meet. Several
political contacts expressed interest in meeting, until it
became obvious that an SB contingent was keeping a close eye
on the Charge's every move. Representatives of Kachin youth
groups and the Kachin Independence Organization then bowed
off, offering instead to get together sometime later in
Rangoon. Only the NLD dared to meet. One of its leaders,
Daw Ngwe Kyaing, said simply: "What more can they do to us?"
She invited us to her home where two other NLD members and
her husband were also present. All four have been detained
in the past for periods of several months. When an SB
officer sauntered in to listen to the conversation, we asked
him to wait outside and he complied.

The Kachin NLD
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4. (C) Daw Ngwe Kyaing said the Kachin NLD consists of 76
members. Most are male and two are "youths". (Note: The NLD
defines youth as anyone under the age of 55. End Note.) Top
members of the Kachin NLD, all of whom have been political
detainees at some point, currently are able to travel to
Rangoon occasionally to observe major political anniversaries
and to coordinate policy with headquarters. At times in the
past, the regime has denied travel permission. Still, Daw
Ngwe Kyaing indicated that SB harassment at present "is the
worst it has ever been." Every time she leaves the house she
is photographed and followed.

U.S. Engagement an "Excellent Idea"
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5. (C) The group was aware of the ongoing Burma-policy
review in Washington. Asked about the possibility of the USG
increasing engagement with the regime, the NLD members said
"that is an excellent idea." Asked what the main goals
should be, from their perspective, they listed two: the
release of Aung San Suu Kyi and all political prisoners, and
the start of a tripartite dialogue among the NLD, all ethnic
groups, and the GOB.

RANGOON 00000222 002 OF 002



2010 Elections
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6. (C) Daw Ngwe Kyaing said the Kachin NLD is doing very
little to prepare for the 2010 elections. Since the GOB has
yet to release the election law, it is impossible to prepare.
The Kachin NLD expects, though, that the regime will not
allow the NLD to participate. Daw Ngwe Kyaing said that is
exactly what happened during the May 2008 referendum for a
new constitution. Kachin NLD members were not allowed to
cast ballots. U Kyin Thein, another member of the group,
claimed with confidence that, despite the NLD's challenges,
Aung San Suu Kyi still enjoys broad support in Kachin State.
When she visited there in 2003 prior to her latest house
arrest, the streets were filled with joyful supporters.

Comment
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7. (C) The visit to Kachin State accented how difficult it
is for "dissident" elements to organize and operate in
today's Burma. The SB is watching. Even around remote
Indawgyi Lake, SB personnel entered each village ahead of the
Charge and party to put a damper on any possible discussion
opportunity. Still, brave activists persevere, often at
their, and their families', peril. We made sure each
potential interlocutor was aware the SB was observing. While
Daw Ngwe Khaing and her colleagues accepted the risk, even
with twinkles in their eyes, it was obvious Daw Ngwe Khaing's
middle-aged daughter was distraught. It is an ongoing
challenge to expand the embassy's regional contact base. In
recent months, the GOB has been relatively generous in
granting Mission personnel permission to travel outside
designated tourist areas, but the constant SB presence is the
downside.


8. (C) Still, when a meeting does occur it can be valuable,
as was the case with the Kachin NLD reps. They had
previously heard of Secretary Clinton's announcement of the
Burma review in Jakarta, and they are hoping that somehow the
USG can help move Burma politics forward. Clearly, though,
the Kachin NLD view is that the goals of releasing political
prisoners and encouraging dialogue between the regime and its
opponents are essential steps in any engagement.
DINGER