BURMA: KEY KACHIN GROUPS WORKING TO FORM A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000204

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: KEY KACHIN GROUPS WORKING TO FORM A
POLITICAL PARTY

REF: A. RANGOON 126

B. 08 RANGOON 558

C. 08 RANGOON 305

Classified By: Pol Officer Sean O'Neill for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary. In an April 1 meeting with P/E Chief and
Poloffs, Kachin peace negotiator Dr. Saboi Jum told us that a
coalition of Kachin cease-fire groups is actively working to
form a political party to participate in the 2010 elections.
The new party, tentatively named the Kachin State Progressive
Party, would be regional in focus and open to all ethnicities
residing in Kachin State. A committee of Kachin political
and community leaders is working to establish a draft
political platform and is also reaching out at the grass
roots level to gauge political attitudes and support. Saboi
Jum speculated that Kachin Independence Organization (KIO)
Vice Chair Tu Jar may eventually leave the KIO in order to
participate in the elections. End Summary.


2. (C) On April 1, leading Kachin peace negotiator Saboi Jum
told P/E Chief and Poloffs that a consortium of key Kachin
cease-fire groups known as the Kachin Consultative Assembly
has formed a committee to advise on the creation of a
political party to participate in the 2010 elections. The
committee, chaired by KIO Vice Chairman Tu Jar, has
tentatively named the party the Kachin State Progressive
Party and is working to establish a draft political platform.
Members of the committee have also been reaching out to
community leaders in Kachin State to gauge support for the
party and solicit input on various political issues.


3. (C) Saboi Jum told us the intent is to create a regional
party to address concerns of all ethnicities living in Kachin
State, not just ethnic Kachin. Persons of many different
ethnicities, including Kachin, Shan, Bamar and Chinese,
reside in Kachin State and the party would seek to represent
them all, according to Saboi Jum. Additionally, Saboi Jum
told us that committee members have been reaching out to
community leaders in neighboring northern Shan State to
encourage them to form a similar political party open to all
ethnicities residing in Shan State, but reported that there
is little interest for such an approach in Shan State.


4. (C) Saboi Jum speculated that KIO Vice Chairman Tu Jar -
who chairs the party formation committee - may eventually
leave the KIO in order to play an active role in the new
party. Previously, Saboi Jum has told us that the Kachin
Consultative Assembly will require members of its constituent
groups to resign before participating in the elections
(reftels). Saboi Jum said he recently met with Tu Jar and
reminded him of this requirement. According to Saboi Jum, Tu
Jar said he is considering taking an active role in party
politics and acknowledged he would have to resign in order to
do so, but did not commit.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) The Kachin Consultative Assembly was formed by the
KIO, Kachin Defense Army (KDA),and National Democratic Army
Kachin (NDAK) in 2008 to explore the way forward following
the May constitutional referendum (Ref B). It soon agreed to
form a political party and participate in the elections.
However, in the past, Saboi Jum has noted that many within
the Kachin cease-fire groups remain concerned the regime will
use the constitution and elections to force them to disarm
without addressing their key demands regarding autonomy and
federalism (Ref C). Some worry that, as long as the regime
ignores key ethnic concerns, renewed fighting remains a
possibility. The extent to which the new party consults with
Kachin communities and gets their buy-in presumably would be
a key factor in its electoral prospects, if there were to be
a relatively free and fair process. The people's view of the
election's credibility could determine the chances of

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continued peace in Kachin State.
DINGER