BURMA: KEY KACHIN GROUPS WORKING TO FORM A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000204 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR BM SUBJECT: BURMA: KEY KACHIN GROUPS WORKING TO FORM A POLITICAL PARTY REF: A. RANGOON 126 ¶B. 08 RANGOON 558 ¶C. 08 RANGOON 305 Classified By: Pol Officer Sean O'Neill for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. In an April 1 meeting with P/E Chief and Poloffs, Kachin peace negotiator Dr. Saboi Jum told us that a coalition of Kachin cease-fire groups is actively working to form a political party to participate in the 2010 elections. The new party, tentatively named the Kachin State Progressive Party, would be regional in focus and open to all ethnicities residing in Kachin State. A committee of Kachin political and community leaders is working to establish a draft political platform and is also reaching out at the grass roots level to gauge political attitudes and support. Saboi Jum speculated that Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) Vice Chair Tu Jar may eventually leave the KIO in order to participate in the elections. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On April 1, leading Kachin peace negotiator Saboi Jum told P/E Chief and Poloffs that a consortium of key Kachin cease-fire groups known as the Kachin Consultative Assembly has formed a committee to advise on the creation of a political party to participate in the 2010 elections. The committee, chaired by KIO Vice Chairman Tu Jar, has tentatively named the party the Kachin State Progressive Party and is working to establish a draft political platform. Members of the committee have also been reaching out to community leaders in Kachin State to gauge support for the party and solicit input on various political issues. ¶3. (C) Saboi Jum told us the intent is to create a regional party to address concerns of all ethnicities living in Kachin State, not just ethnic Kachin. Persons of many different ethnicities, including Kachin, Shan, Bamar and Chinese, reside in Kachin State and the party would seek to represent them all, according to Saboi Jum. Additionally, Saboi Jum told us that committee members have been reaching out to community leaders in neighboring northern Shan State to encourage them to form a similar political party open to all ethnicities residing in Shan State, but reported that there is little interest for such an approach in Shan State. ¶4. (C) Saboi Jum speculated that KIO Vice Chairman Tu Jar - who chairs the party formation committee - may eventually leave the KIO in order to play an active role in the new party. Previously, Saboi Jum has told us that the Kachin Consultative Assembly will require members of its constituent groups to resign before participating in the elections (reftels). Saboi Jum said he recently met with Tu Jar and reminded him of this requirement. According to Saboi Jum, Tu Jar said he is considering taking an active role in party politics and acknowledged he would have to resign in order to do so, but did not commit. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) The Kachin Consultative Assembly was formed by the KIO, Kachin Defense Army (KDA),and National Democratic Army Kachin (NDAK) in 2008 to explore the way forward following the May constitutional referendum (Ref B). It soon agreed to form a political party and participate in the elections. However, in the past, Saboi Jum has noted that many within the Kachin cease-fire groups remain concerned the regime will use the constitution and elections to force them to disarm without addressing their key demands regarding autonomy and federalism (Ref C). Some worry that, as long as the regime ignores key ethnic concerns, renewed fighting remains a possibility. The extent to which the new party consults with Kachin communities and gets their buy-in presumably would be a key factor in its electoral prospects, if there were to be a relatively free and fair process. The people's view of the election's credibility could determine the chances of RANGOON 00000204 002 OF 002 continued peace in Kachin State. DINGER