BURMA: MLS DIRECTOR MEETING WITH ETHNIC POLITICIANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000195

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: MLS DIRECTOR MEETING WITH ETHNIC POLITICIANS

Classified By: Pol Officer Sean O'Neill for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

Summary
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1. (C) In a March 25 meeting in Rangoon with EAP/MLS
Director Blake, three ethnic politicians said the Committee
Representing People's Parliament (CRPP),an organization of
MPs-elected in 1990, has enjoyed greater freedom to meet
since September 2008. They said CRPP members are not opposed
to participation in the 2010 elections, but would not take
part unless the regime first releases political prisoners and
amends the constitution to reduce the military's political
influence. The CRPP members believe any UNSYG Ban visit
should be conditional on genuine political progress. Arakan
League for Democracy Chairman Aye Thar Aung expressed support
for U.S. and EU economic sanctions, while also favoring
humanitarian programs, even if there is some leakage to the
regime. In response to questions about the USG policy
review, Mr. Blake stressed that the goal is to achieve
meaningful change. End Summary.

Greater Latitude to Work
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2. (C) In a March 25 meeting with visiting EAP/MLS Director
Stephen Blake and Charge, Chairman of the Arakan League for
Democracy (ALD) Aye Thar Aung, Mon Nationalities Democratic
Front (MNDF) Chairman Nai Tun Thein, and MNDF Vice Chairman
Nai Ngwe Thein explained that the CRPP is an organization of
1990 MPs-elect drawn primarily from ethnic political parties.
Regime scrutiny and persecution had long hindered their
ability to meet, but since September 2008, they have enjoyed
greater freedom to conduct business. They noted with
pleasure that the National League for Democracy (NLD, Aung
San Suu Kyi's party) has recently renewed its involvement in
the CRPP's activities, and former prisoners and NLD Central
Executive Committee members Win Tin and Khin Maung Shwe have
participated in recent CRPP meetings. (Note: previously the
NLD had publicly kept its distance from the CRPP, reportedly
due to security concerns). As a result, the three CRPP
members told us they now regularly discuss policy matters
with the NLD and have begun to talk about contingency plans
in case the NLD is banned in the run-up to the 2010
elections.

The Elections
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3. (C) Echoing the NLD's position, the CRPP officials
explained that the CRPP is not opposed to participating in
the 2010 elections, but would not take part unless the regime
first releases political prisoners and amends the new
constitution to reduce the military's political influence.
Aye Thar Aung described the new constitution and election
plans as merely "a scaffolding" for the military to retain
power and legitimize its rule. He predicted: change may come
slowly without the elections, but it will come even slower
with them. All three of the CRPP members expect the
elections will be rigged. They said it is critical that the
UN and international community not legitimize the results if
that is the case.

UNSYG Ban Visit
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4. (C) Nai Ngwe Thein told us the CRPP hopes UNSYG Ban makes
any Burma visit conditional on genuine progress, including
the release of prisoners and the start of genuine dialogue.
He said the CRPP is concerned that Ban be careful not to
diminish his stature by visiting Burma without obtaining
tangible results.

US Policy
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5. (C) In response to questions about the USG policy review,
Mr. Blake stressed that the goal of the ongoing review is to
achieve meaningful change in Burma. Mr. Blake noted the
Secretary's comments that neither sanctions nor engagement
has produced tangible results yet, and he informed the CRPP
members that all options are being considered.


6. (C) Arakan League for Democracy Chairman Aye Thar Aung
expressed support for U.S. and EU economic sanctions as a
positive way to foster change. When asked about the impact
of sanctions on ordinary Burmese citizens, he said he
believes most Burmese were desperately poor before the
sanctions due to regime abuses and mismanagement and
therefore have not been unduly impacted by economic
sanctions. He added however, that given significant needs
throughout the country, he supports humanitarian programs
like the Global Fund, even if some of the money might end up
being siphoned off by the regime.

Comment
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7. (C) Like the NLD, the CRPP remains focused on the
injustices of the 1990 elections. Still, the members we met
remain committed to democratic change and have been thinking
long and hard about what is best for Burma. Like many others
we have spoken with recently, they are clearly interested in
the USG policy review and will undoubtedly continue to offer
advice on how we should proceed. End Comment.
DINGER