KING ANNOUNCES BIG CHANGES IN MOROCCAN WESTERN

C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 000908 SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA, IO/UNP, AND NEA/MAG E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2019 TAGS: PGOV PBTS PINS PHUM PREL MO WI SUBJECT: KING ANNOUNCES BIG CHANGES IN MOROCCAN WESTERN SAHARA POLICY REF: A. RABAT 0776 ¶B. RABAT 0849 Classified By: PolCouns Gregory Thome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: King Mohammed VI has announced several significant changes to Morocco's "domestic" policies for the Western Sahara. These include a concerted effort to entice refugees from the Tindouf camps "to repent and return" to Moroccan-controlled Sahara and a five point plan that aims to accelerate democratic decentralization and devolve more self-governing authority to the region. At the same time, the King underscored what appears to be a policy of decreasing tolerance toward Moroccan separatists and those who sympathize with them. There is much good in the king's calls to reinvigorate decentralization and explore refugee return. His more worrisome rhetoric regarding "treason" represents, in large part, a populist effort to stoke national support for Saharan integration, and may result in a major crackdown on Saharan activists. The Secretary's recent public reaffirmation of support for Morocco's autonomy plan for the Sahara may help the GOM regain its international equilibrium and reduce the chances for overreactions. END SUMMARY. -------------- King Proposes New Policies for Western Sahara -------------- ¶2. (U) The GOM commemorated the 34th anniversary of the Green March with much more pomp, circumstance and patriotic fervor than usual. November 6 is normally a less boisterous holiday that commemorates the day when former King Hassan II led hundreds of thousands of peaceful, "spontaneous" Moroccans on a march into Western Sahara to force Spain to relinquish the territory to Moroccan control. This year, however, the GOM marked the anniversary of the 1975 event with a series of parades, rallies and a major policy speech from King Mohammed VI, in which he outlined a series of new domestic and international policy initiatives for the region. ¶3. (SBU) Most noteworthy among the King's proposals was a five point plan aimed at accelerating democratic decentralization in the "Southern Provinces." The Palace has long expressed its desire to expand self-governance in all regions of Morocco, but it is no secret that a large part of the motivation for this slow-moving initiative is aimed at the Western Sahara. GOM leaders are well aware that the credibility and feasibility of Morocco's proposed solution to the Sahara impasse -- its autonomy plan -- are dependent on the real devolution of significant authority, currently tightly controlled by the Palace, to the Western Sahara. With this in mind, the King announced that "the spirit of the Green March should be rekindled" via a plan that aims to: -- accelerate decentralization of governing authority nationwide, and to the Southern Provinces in particular; -- enhance good governance by sending to the region a cadre of more effective administrators and expanding their authority; -- launch a major restructuring of the Royal Advisory Council for Saharan Affairs, a body of hand-picked Sahrawis who are supposed to work hand in hand with the Palace to promote the political, economic and cultural integration of the region into Moroccan society; and -- enlist greater civil society participation in all these efforts. ¶4. (SBU) Notably, and perhaps somewhat more problematically, the King also announced a series of human development and job creation projects specifically designed to entice refugees from the Tindouf camps in Algeria "to repent and return to their motherland." Morocco already favors increasing family visitation between the camps and the GOM-controlled regions, and even expressed its strong support for building a direct road link as part of an effort to enhance the confidence building measures (CBMs) currently being implemented by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (Ref A). Now, the King specifically reiterated a call on UNHCR (and Algeria) to "fulfill their international commitments" and begin accelerating repatriation. -------------- Carrots and Sticks -------------- ¶5. (U) While the King's speech focused heavily on carrots like decentralization, good governance and job creation, it also included unvarnished sticks and clear warnings. Mohammed VI said that the GOM would no longer tolerate the activities of separatists and other "enemies of Morocco who cloak themselves" under the guise of human rights organizations but are in truth collaborating with "foreign agents" to undermine Moroccan territorial integrity. Making a clear reference to the seven Sahrawi activists who were arrested in Casablanca in October after they participated in a Polisario military parade (Ref B),the King condemned such activists as "traitors" and informed the nation in strident terms that, on the question of the Sahara, there was "no middle ground between patriotism and treason." ¶6. (SBU) In response to the king's Green March speech, the Party of Authenticity and Modernity (PAM),which is closely linked to the Palace, quickly announced that it would introduce legislation to further criminalize treason and to better define the crime of -- and the potential punishments for -- collaboration with foreign intelligence agents. Several PAM MPs sought publicly to pre-empt criticism from human rights activists by clarifying that their draft legislation would seek to protect both the rights of the accused and the society at large by requiring that such crimes be tried in a civilian court. (NOTE: Currently, the case of the seven Sahrawi activists is being prepared for trial before military tribunals. END NOTE. -------------- Swedish Diplomat PNG'ed -------------- ¶7. (C) The same week as the king's Green March speech, the GOM decided abruptly to declare a Swedish diplomat "persona non grata" over her allegedly inappropriate contacts with Saharan independence activists. The diplomat, a close Embassy contact, was pro-active on Saharan issues and maintained extensive contacts with Sahrawi separatists and human rights NGOs. GOM officials told us that the timing of the PNG decision and the King's speech was purely coincidental. However, they had also complained bitterly to us in the past about the Swede's vocal criticisms of alleged human rights abuses in the Sahara and their perception that she tended to take any allegation of abuse at face value without considering the possible ulterior motives of those making them. She did admit privately that she has shared with an activist a packet she had received from the MFA that contained open-source materials and Ministry of the Interior comments regarding the allegedly treasonous activities of the seven currently facing the military tribunal. However, she also opined that the GOM expelled her less because of her activities in Morocco and more because of two other factors: (1) the Swedish government,s awarding of a major human rights prize to a prominent separatist last month and (2) the Swedish Social Democratic Party,s public promise last week to, if returned to government, recognize a Polisario government. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Moroccan reaction to the Secretary,s public and private affirmations of USG support for Morocco,s autonomy plan has been universally positive. GOM officials are both relieved and certain that this will reinforce the excellent bilateral relationship. ¶9. (C) Despite the harsh rhetoric toward alleged Saharan separatists, there is much good in King Mohammed VI's Green March speech. We find the detailed calls for more democratic decentralization and good governance to be encouraging. These long-standing initiatives are not proceeding quickly, but as with all policy in Morocco the king's speech will serve as a royal instruction to step up the process. His focus on refugee repatriation is also very positive. UNHCR still faces a tough task in getting Morocco and Algeria to agree but, again, the King's focus is always a first step -- at least on the Moroccan side -- toward enhancing this and other CBMs. As for the tough warnings regarding "treason" and decreased tolerance of separatist opinion, they largely represent a populist effort to stoke national opinion in favor of the GOM's Sahara policies. We do not believe they will translate into a massive crackdown, although activists who make a practice of overtly antagonizing the authorities (like the seven currently being held) are likely to think twice until this storm blows over. As for the expulsion of the Swede, we are hopeful that the Secretary's renewal of public support for Morocco's autonomy plan during her November 1-3 visit to Marrakesh will help the GOM regain its equilibrium in the international arena, thereby reducing the chances for similar over-reactions. END COMMENT. ***************************************** Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website; http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Moro cco ***************************************** Kaplan