MAURITANIAN INDEPENDENT COMMENTS ON MAURITANIA

S E C R E T RABAT 000634 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W AND NEA/MAG E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2019 TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM MR MO SUBJECT: MAURITANIAN INDEPENDENT COMMENTS ON MAURITANIA ELECTION Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1 .4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Summary: Ahmed Said Ould Bah, a Mauritanian expert who serves as Chief of Staff of Islamic Organization for Education, Science, and Culture (ISESCO),told us on July 20 he believed the Mauritanian opposition was genuinely surprised by Mohammed Ould Abdel Aziz's victory in the recent presidential election in Mauritania, but that the election results were accurate. Ould Bah, a well connected Mauritanian national, suggested that fears for security and stability motivated France to play a significant role in Aziz's victory, just as Paris, like Rabat, had pre-cleared last year's Aziz-led coup. He applauded the United States' principled stand against the coup in Mauritania and its lack of interference in the recent elections. According to Ould Bah, Aziz is being viewed as transitional figure to steward Mauritania from military to civilian rule. End Summary. -------------- Election Results -------------- ¶2. (S) In side comments with PolCouns and D/PolCouns, during a meeting focused on launching USG cooperation with ISESCO on July 20, Islamic Organization for Education, Science and Culture (ISESCO) Chief of Staff Ahmed Said Ould Bah shared his views about the recent presidential election in Mauritania. Ould Bah, a well-connected Mauritanian national, said that despite protests by opposition parties, Mohammed Ould Abdel Aziz,s apparent victory in the election, in which he captured 52 percent of the vote, would likely be accepted by the population, despite protests from anti-Aziz factions. He said that approximately two thirds of registered voters turned out to vote. ¶3. (S) Ould Bah said that anti-Aziz elements were surprised by the election results. He said that anti-Aziz factions generally underestimated the degree of support Aziz was able to garner among the poor and the young: two crucial groups in the election. Aziz was also seen as a candidate of change, and opposition attempts to paint him as corrupt backfired. Ould Bah said that the lack of any polling in Mauritania made it difficult to gauge trends and manage expectations in campaigns. He considered the complete absence of professional, objective and scientific polling entities in the country to be a significant shortcoming of the democratic infrastructure in Mauritania. Ould Bah added that General Vall, a candidate considered to have a generally positive and counter-corruption image, was shocked to have received only three percent of the vote and likely regretted running in the first place. -------------- France Pulling Strings -------------- ¶4. (S) Ould Bah claimed that France played a significant role in influencing the election result from behind the scenes. He said that France, which had favored Aziz's candidacy, had opposed Ould Daddah and took active measures to enhance Aziz's electoral chances. The French were motivated by concerns about security and stability, particularly the al Qa'eda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) threat. Ould Bah mentioned that France and Morocco had known about the coup, which had brought Aziz to power in 2008, and they had both given Aziz a "green light" for him to execute it. In addition to assisting with the Dakar negotiations, which facilitated the elections, France was able to extract several concessions from Aziz at Dakar, which while ceding posts in the transition, ultimately helped facilitate his election, according to Ould Bah. These included Aziz,s resignation as interim head of state, Aziz's willingness to allow top slots in the Ministries of Interior, Defense, and Communications to be filled with opposition figures, and his willingness to accept a delay of the elections. All these concessions increased his reputation for flexibility and pragmatism, and won him votes. ¶5. (S) Behind the scenes, the French made significant promises of lucrative French commercial business contracts to Moussaid Behair, a Mauritanian businessman and key financial backer of Aziz's campaign. These assurances of huge business deals and promises to Behair that "he would get everything back," induced Behair to give more generously to Aziz's campaign than he otherwise would have. Because Aziz's campaign discourse included counter-corruption rhetoric, Aziz's connection to these machinations was naturally hidden from the public eye. Ould Bah added, "Aziz traveled to France prior to the elections and negotiated with all the right people." -------------- -------------- America's Principled Anti-Coup Stance Appreciated -------------- -------------- ¶6. (S) Ould Bah said that the United States' principled decision to stand against the coup in Mauritania was appreciated by parties opposed to Aziz. He added that U.S., unwillingness to grant concessions to Aziz, insistence on democracy, and non-interference with the election results was also appreciated. Ould Bah said that many Mauritanians see Aziz as a transitional leader, leading the country from military to civilian rule. ¶7. (S) Comment: Ould Bah, with a PhD from France and MPhil from London's School of Oriental and African Studies, is an articulate interlocutor who is very favorably disposed to the U.S.. However, we know nothing about his ties in Mauritania and potential prejudices therefrom. He had no expectation of the subject being raised, and his perspective appeared balanced. Nonetheless, we can only transmit his comments. Ould Bah's assessment reinforces our previous calculations that Morocco at least knew about the Aziz-led coup in advance. We believe that the Government of Morocco (GOM), like that of France, is pleased with the election results in Mauritania. The GOM will likely soon appeal to the U.S. to resume normal relations with Mauritania, citing the soundness of the elections and framing Aziz as a transition figure to a better democracy for Mauritania in the future. The Moroccans likely hope that such normalization would itself help promote a renewal of our engagement with the Arab Maghreb Union. End Comment. ***************************************** Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website; http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Moro cco ***************************************** Jackson