CORRECTED COPY: XXXXXXXXXXXX LINKS MOROCCAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RABAT 000289 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/MAG E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2029 TAGS: PREL PINR SCUL KISL IR SA EG MO SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY: XXXXXXXXXXXX LINKS MOROCCAN BREAK WITH IRAN TO SAUDI ARABIA REF: A. RABAT 0196 ¶B. RABAT 0205 ¶C. RABAT 0230 ¶D. CASABLANCA 47 ¶E. RABAT 0247 ¶F. KARP/DESK EMAIL 30 MAR 2009 Classified By: PolCouns Craig Karp for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: Morocco broke diplomatic relations with Iran and began a campaign against its domestic Shi'a minority at Saudi Arabian instigation, according to XXXXXXXXXXXX. According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, Tehran had been using Morocco and its Embassy in Rabat for activities in Mali and Senegal. Domestically, XXXXXXXXXXXX emphasized that the anti-Shi'a campaign was aimed at neutralizing possible challenges to monarchist parties by Islamic groups in upcoming municipal elections. In addition, King Mohammed VI was seeking to reassert his position as a religious leader. End Summary. ¶2. (S/NF) Morocco broke relations with Iran and began a campaign against its domestic Shi'a minority at Saudi Arabian instigation, XXXXXXXXXXXX told PolOff on March 30. XXXXXXXXXXXX was aware his comments would be reported. XXXXXXXXXXXX said there was almost daily contact between Mohammed VI's palace and Riyadh in the run up to the surprise March 6 severing of Moroccan relations with Iran (Ref A-D); and the intense consultations have continued (Note: He did not provide a source or basis for this comment other than to say "our information shows." End Note.). XXXXXXXXXXXX believes that Saudi Arabia has enlisted King Mohammed VI personally (and not the Government of Morocco, which was as surprised as the rest of the world at the rupture, XXXXXXXXXXXX noted) in its geopolitical strategy to counter Iranian influence. In return for active Moroccan support, Saudi Arabia will ensure a continued flow of subsidized oil to Morocco, and may plug holes in Morocco's foreign direct investment balance sheet resulting from recent Gulf withdrawals from major projects as a result of the global financial crisis. ¶3. (S/NF) XXXXXXXXXXXX said goading Iran, a country with which it had limited economic interests, and demonizing the Shi'a, a powerless minority group, was a small price for Morocco to pay for a strategy that could have major payoffs. He added that the King was "killing several birds with one stone" with his actions, and was also seeking to reassert his position as Commander of the Faithful (Note: Supreme religious leader for the Moroccan Malachite branch of Sunni Islam. End Note.). 
 ¶4. (S/NF) According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, Iran has sought to increase the influence of Shi'ism in West Africa, where Tehran had been using Morocco (which is a regional air hub) and its Embassy in Rabat as a jumping off point for activities in Mali and Senegal. A former Iranian ambassador was also apparently travelling to Tangier, Tetouan and other cities in Morocco to lecture and identify promising young religious students from the Shi'a community for familiarization visits to, and further training in, Iran. ¶5. (S/NF) Mohammed VI apparently saw this as a personal affront to him and a direct challenge to his religious and economic authority. (Note: Contributions from the wealthy Tijani sect in Senegal and Mali augment Palace coffers. Many Muslims in West Africa look to the Moroccan Monarch as their religious leader. End Note). Although XXXXXXXXXXXX did not provide any basis for the supposition, XXXXXXXXXXXX said XXXXXXXXXXXX believed that Mohammed VI had probably been planning his move for at least a year. XXXXXXXXXXXX also speculated that the Palace was also worried about the prospect of Moroccan foreign fighters returning from Iraq, possibly having been recruited and trained by Iran, and slipping into Iranian networks in Morocco. ¶6. (S/NF) Domestically, XXXXXXXXXXXX emphasized that the anti-Shi'a campaign was also directed at dissident Islamic group Adl Wa Ihsane (The Justice and Good Works Organization) which has recently signaled its desire to become a legitimate political party. The group, which has at times called for the abolishment of the monarchy and the establishment of an Islamic republic, is believed to have wide popularity among poor and middle class populations unhappy with the political system, which they view as corrupt. XXXXXXXXXXXX said that the Palace is trying to be "more conservative than the fundamentalists" in a bid to neutralize their drawing power. ¶7. (S/NF) On the Doha conference (Ref E and F),XXXXXXXXXXXX said RABAT 00000289 002 OF 002 the King's dithering about whether he would or would not attend was a sign of the difficult balancing act he was attempting to carry off by keeping Saudi Arabia happy, while not alienating Qatar. XXXXXXXXXXXX said that by sending his brother Moulay Rachid to the summit, despite his own last minute withdrawal, Mohammed VI showed respect to the Qataris while not enthusiastically endorsing their leadership bid. Had he sent someone of lower stature, such as the Prime Minister, it might have been read as a snub, XXXXXXXXXXXX explained. (Comment: We agree.) ¶8. (S/NF) XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX ***************************************** Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website; http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Moro cco ***************************************** Jackson