CORREA AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS: ATTACKS FROM THE LEFT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000951 E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/12 TAGS: PGOV ELAB EC SUBJECT: CORREA AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS: ATTACKS FROM THE LEFT? REF: QUITO 877 CLASSIFIED BY: Andrew Chritton, Charge d'Affaires; REASON: 1.4(D) ¶1. (... id: 234456 date: 11/13/2009 0:05 refid: 09QUITO951 origin: Embassy Quito classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: 09QUITO877 header: INFO LOG-00 AF-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 ANHR-00 DS-00 EAP-00 DHSE-00 OIGO-00 VCI-00 H-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 MOFM-00 MOF-00 VCIE-00 NSAE-00 ISN-00 NSCE-00 NIMA-00 MCC-00 ISNE-00 DOHS-00 FMPC-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 NCTC-00 CBP-00 R-00 SCRS-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 FA-00 SWCI-00 PESU-00 SANA-00 /001W O R 130005Z NOV 09 FM AMEMBASSY QUITO TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0324 INFO AMEMBASSY BOGOTA AMEMBASSY BRASILIA DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC AMEMBASSY CARACAS AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL AMEMBASSY LA PAZ AMEMBASSY LIMA AMEMBASSY QUITO -------------- header ends -------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000951 E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/12 TAGS: PGOV ELAB EC SUBJECT: CORREA AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS: ATTACKS FROM THE LEFT? REF: QUITO 877 CLASSIFIED BY: Andrew Chritton, Charge d'Affaires; REASON: 1.4(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. President Rafael Correa now faces strong but fragmented opposition from leftist groups that were part of his political base. In the last few months, the GOE has confronted striking teachers, students, and indigenous groups. In each case, Correa has come to the table for dialogue with these groups, but complicated those dialogues by continuing his verbal blasts accusing them of everything from ignorance and selfishness to "infantile" behavior and manipulation by his enemies on the right. In the end, Correa has probably chosen his battles wisely, since many of these organizations do not have much support from the general population. END SUMMARY. -------------- Advantage: Correa -------------- ¶2. (C) Embassy contacts are almost uniform in their analysis that, despite a growing dislike for some of his rude public commentary, Correa's resolve when faced with protests from his left wing is generally good for Correa and for Ecuador, with its history of instability and governments held hostage by these interest groups. He has managed to divide each of the protesting groups by opening dialogues with some of the organizers, leaving other factions unhappy but weakened. After the death of the indigenous protester in September, police are extremely cautious about reacting to protests with force, but are in the streets to maintain order. (Note: Preliminary reports indicate the protestor was likely killed by another protestor. End note) Government ministers have clearly warned against the interruption of public services. ¶3. (SBU) Correa is balancing his willingness to dialogue with repeated verbal sallies accusing all of the protesting groups of being on the "extreme left" and "doing the work of the rightists" and "imperialists." In Bolivia last month for an ALBA meeting, Correa said the unions and indigenous groups were "infantile", and that their protests could actually impede the governments' attempts to create real change. Each group of protesters has felt the verbal lash of the presidency, who often takes them to task during his weekly Saturday radio addresses. ¶4. (C) It is ironic that Correa, the self-proclaimed "21st century socialist," is facing his most active opposition from the left of the political spectrum, all the while accusing them of falling prey to manipulation from the "rightists." Rumors in the indigenous community suggest that corporate interests in Guayaquil, or the losers in the last presidential election, funded the most violent protests during the September indigenous strike. Although there is no known evidence to back up that claim, it conforms exactly to Correa's much-publicized fears that his citizens' revolution is under attack from both sides. -------------- Students and teachers march...again -------------- ¶5. (U) Both students and teachers have taken to the streets to protest proposed laws on primary and secondary education and on higher education. Students have been protesting on and off over proposals in the Law on Higher Education, occasionally with some violence. Organizers say 15,000 students took part in marches nationwide on October 21. Students protesting the proposed Higher Education Law did not like that universities will lose funds if the accreditation board determines that a program fails to meet academic standards, nor that rectors and "principal professors" must hold PhDs, or the equivalent, in their field. University rectors and a few student leaders had met with President Correa at the presidential palace two days before the student strike, leaving some university leaders satisfied enough to keep their institutions away from the October 21 marches and sowing divisions among the educational elite. Ongoing "tripartite" dialogue between university representatives, the National Assembly, and the national planning ministry (SENPLADES) kicked off on October 27. Already some student leaders are unhappy, mostly because the universities selected the leader of one student organization to attend the dialogue. The leader of another student group called for his organization to return to the streets, and protests continue the week of November 9. ¶6. (SBU) The teachers have called for various strikes since March, when the GOE moved forward on teacher testing, with students protesting in larger numbers once the school year started this fall. Again, Correa has managed the domestic disturbances with a firm hand. The largest teachers' union, UNE, called for the latest nationwide teachers' strike on September 15. Teachers did not like the articles in the proposed Education Law that would require changes to the career path and greater GOE control over the curriculum, as well as putting the Executive's teacher testing policy into law. Even during the biggest march in the capital, however, most teachers remained in the classroom, leaving core UNE members to hang banners outside the presidential palace. With President Correa out of the country, the teachers' union met for six hours of discussions on October 7 with Vice President Moreno, then called off the strike. Moreno's agreement with UNE does not substantially change the law, but among other minor revisions, will give teachers who refused to be tested another opportunity, and allows those who fail a chance to retire or to attend remedial training with the Ministry of Education before taking the test again. ¶7. (C) Many Ecuadorians seem to think that the teachers get too many benefits without being held to any real standards, believing that explains why education in Ecuador is so poor. Santiago Nieto of the polling firm Informe Confidencial told the DCM and Poloffs during a private briefing that over 60% of the population has a negative view of UNE. -------------- -------------- Correa circles the wagons, then makes peace with indigenous groups -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) The GOE dialogue with indigenous groups is the longest running of such talks. The GOE has reportedly reached agreement with the largest indigenous organization, the Confederation of Indigenous People of Ecuador (CONAIE),on a few points, including some wording changes to the most contentious matter and the causus belli of the initial strike, the proposed water law. At present, the agreements reached appear to be more form than substance. The indigenous demand for a halt to mining in two eastern provinces and the investigation of the death of an indigenous protester at the end of September will probably be the most contentious issues in the dialogue. It was this death that shocked both the Government and the protestors, and for the first time, brought Correa to the bargaining table with a group opposing him. Before that incident, Correa had insisted that CONAIE completely end the protests of all its affiliate organizations before any discussions could start. Within days of the death, CONAIE representatives and Correa held an initial heated dialogue. After an exchange of un-pleasantries on both sides, Correa handed the microphone to his more conciliatory Vice President, Lenin Moreno, who eventually closed the marathon session with the beginnings of a deal (Ref A and B). ¶9. (C) Sandra Guzman, a National Democratic Institute staffer, told Poloffs that Ecuadorians recognize that the indigenous groups have suffered from years of discrimination and have some sympathy for their ongoing political activism. However, the general public does not appreciate the civil disturbances and road closures, especially when the GOE stays on the message that the indigenous groups are misinformed, manipulated, and do not understand what is in the law. Guzman noted that Correa, who sees himself as acting in the best interests of the indigenous communities, will continue to manage with a "mano duro" (firm hand). In her view, that will be the only way to bring real change to Ecuador. ¶10. (U) The fissures between indigenous groups and among the leadership of the indigenous movements have also helped Correa. CONAIE could not keep its Amazonian affiliates, CONFENIAE, in line when discussions to end the strike first began, leading to a very public chastisement of CONAIE's leadership. Two of the other national organizations representing indigenous groups, the evangelical FEINE and labor-union base FENOCIN, publicly repudiated CONAIE's actions and their ongoing dialogue with the GOE. Some radicals, mostly within CONAIE, are apparently expecting the GOE to agree to what are essentially mini-states within Ecuador, according to Kleber Naula, an academic now working for Chimborazo province. That kind of ideology, he said, will not attract more moderate, non-indigenous support, and does not have the support of the two other large indigenous organizations. -------------- Labor unions disgruntled but disorganized -------------- ¶11. (C) Unionized workers currently only account for 2 percent or less of the workforce, and Correa's proposed Law on Public Enterprises would cut the number by roughly half. The draft legislation prohibits public "technical and administrative" workers and those in "strategic industries" from joining unions, which includes everything from oil transportation workers to nursing aides. Private sector workers are, for the moment, unaffected. Despite the looming threat, labor representatives are apparently unwilling or unable to organize into an effective opposition group, and so far have mounted only a few small protests. ¶12. (C) Patricio Contreras and Samantha Tate of Solidarity Center, an AFL-CIO-based group working across the labor spectrum, agree that unions generally have a bad reputation all around. Younger workers see them as either communist or irrelevant, and most Ecuadorians seen them as essentially selfish actors. Most workers in the country are in enterprises that are too small to unionize (the minimum to form a union is 30 workers). A group of "young turks" is seeking to energize the older and lethargic unions with the creation of a new Inter-Union Committee to Defend Labor Rights and are challenging the leadership of the largest union in court over irregularities in the union elections. Meanwhile, room for maneuver is rapidly shrinking for public sector workers as the National Assembly gets closer to passing the law. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) The leftist groups' success in forcing the GOE to the table for dialogue shows that President Correa considers disaffection on the left a real threat. However, their success may be ephemeral since the GOE apparently believes it can manage the dialogue without making major concessions. At the end of the day, Correa looks more moderate by agreeing to dialogue with the protesting organizations, even while he continues to publicly haul them over the coals. Recent editorials in the local press paint Correa as more of a statist than a socialist given his ongoing attempts to centralize government authority, an accusation that his erstwhile supporters in the unions and minority groups probably support. CHRITTON =======================CABLE ENDS============================