C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000300

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV KPLS OAS EC
SUBJECT: CORREA VICTORY GIVES HIM BLANK CHECK

REF: QUITO 283

Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Correa received the Ecuadorian people's
vote of confidence on April 26 in a generally problem-free
election, winning the presidency in the first round with 52%
of the valid votes. This election, only 27 months into
Correa's term, was required under Ecuador's new constitution.
Results were not as strong for Correa's PAIS movement in
other races, however. Preliminary reports are that PAIS fell
short of a majority in the National Assembly and won only
nine of 23 prefects (who govern provinces). Correa likely
will now have an even freer hand at the central government
level to implement his Citizen Revolution. End Summary.

ANOTHER FOUR YEARS, NO SURPRISE HERE


2. (SBU) In a field of eight candidates, Rafael Correa of the
Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement dominated the
presidential race, winning in the first round, as expected.
He was re-elected with 52% of the votes, according to the
National Electoral Council, with 70% of the votes counted (as
of noon on April 27). Voters dissatisfied with Correa were
unimpressed with the uninspiring line-up of candidates,
several of whom had run before. His closest rival, former
president Lucio Gutierrez, did better than expected with 28%,
apparently winning the protest vote as well as his usual
supporters. (The above percentages exclude blank and invalid
ballots.) With two exit polls and a quick count, the results
were known early in the evening. Correa's margin of victory
this time was much narrower than his win in the September
2008 constitutional referendum, where the constitution so
closely associated with him gained the support of nearly 64%
of the voters.


3. (SBU) Correa proclaimed victory based on exit polls in
remarks made in Guayaquil only 15 minutes after polls closed.
In a later statement made in Quito, he thanked the
"millions" who worked for the citizens' revolution and
rebuked the press once again. He said he was open to
dialogue with Guayaquil mayor Nebot as long as Nebot
understood his role was only as mayor, but ruled out any

dialogue with Gutierrez and third place presidential
candidate Alvaro Noboa. Correa promised to continue his
campaign, saying, "I ratify my commitment not to take a step
back...Today more radical than ever, clearer than ever, we
are always on the side of the poor, we fight for social
justice."


4. (SBU) Correa is the antithesis to the weak political
leaders of Ecuador's past decade. His re-election contrasts
starkly with Ecuador's previous three elected presidents, who
were removed from office by popular protests before they
concluded their terms. In fact, Correa is the first
president to win re-election (subsequent or not) since 1968.

MIXED RESULTS FOR PAIS IN OTHER RACES


5. (SBU) For the National Assembly, preliminary results from
Citizen Participation's quick count showed PAIS with 44% of
the 118 seats decided so far. (The Assembly will have 124
total seats.) The two exit polls predicted PAIS would have
42% and 50%. Even with slightly less than a majority, PAIS
would likely still get its way in the Assembly with the
support of the radical Popular Democratic Movement (MPD), but
such a situation would obviously give MPD greater influence.


6. (SBU) Many analysts saw the local and provincial races as
really the ones to watch during this uninspiring election
run. In the three largest cities, PAIS candidate Augusto
Barrera won Quito with 51% (a much larger margin than
expected over a youthful rival), Guayaquil incumbent mayor
Nebot unsurprisingly retained his office with 69%, and the
Cuenca mayor's office remains too close to call. PAIS
candidates lost to incumbent mayors in the major coastal
cities of Manta, Babahoyo and Machala.


7. (SBU) Exit polls show that PAIS won only nine of the 23
prefect positions. (Prefects are the elected leaders of
provinces, while governors are appointed by the president.)
Pierina Correa was unable to cash in on her brother's
popularity and lost the Guayas prefect to Nebot-supported
candidate Jairala. PAIS handily won Pichincha, the province
where Quito is located.

A CHALLENGE MET, WITH MINOR IRREGULARITIES


7. (SBU) The newly established National Electoral Council
carried out with overall success Ecuador's largest and most
complex election in recent history, with six different
ballots for each voter, 1,974 offices at stake, three
different regulatory texts for electoral guidance, and new
intermediate counting centers. There were no cases of
violence. Although no major fraud was reported by the
international and domestic observation teams, reports from
U.S. Embassy and Consulate General volunteer observers, as
well as other sources, indicate some minor problems. These
include isolated reports of missing or marked ballots,
failure of polling workers to follow proper counting
procedures, and improper registration of military personnel,
who were often not permitted to vote. Losing presidential
candidate Gutierrez criticized even the exit polls as
fraudulent, but other observers largely dismiss his
criticism. The reports of the OAS and EU observer missions
are not yet available.


8. (SBU) The National Electoral Council's regulation of
campaign spending was somewhat more problematic (reftels).
It had imposed two fines on the Correa campaign, but the
Electoral Disputes Tribunal has now claimed the right to
decide whether any fines or other penalties will be imposed,
and dismissed one of the fines the National Electoral Council
had announced.

COMMENT


9. (C) Two years after taking office, Rafael Correa has
managed to introduce a new political paradigm of a strong
central government carrying out a "Citizens' Revolution," and
now has a mandate to continue for four more years. Neither
the National Assembly nor any other branch of government is
likely to get in the way. This gives Correa the opportunity
to implement policy as he sees fit, but also makes him
responsible for the results. Speculation abounds that
Correa's "true colors" will be evident now that this fourth
election since his inauguration is over. Some commentators
expect a move to the right (possibly including a national
accord), and others predict he will move further to the left.
While neither of those possibilities can be ruled out, it is
quite probable that Correa will remain unpredictable,
pragmatic on some points and radical on others, in part to
keep together his broad coalition of supporters. The split
results, with Correa winning in the first round while some
other PAIS candidates not faring as well, may be an
indicatation that Ecuadorian voters remain pragmatic, voting
for candidates who deliver results, or somehow capture their
aspirations.
HODGES