CORREA VICTORY GIVES HIM BLANK CHECK

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000300 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS TAGS: PGOV KPLS OAS EC SUBJECT: CORREA VICTORY GIVES HIM BLANK CHECK REF: QUITO 283 Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Correa received the Ecuadorian people's vote of confidence on April 26 in a generally problem-free election, winning the presidency in the first round with 52% of the valid votes. This election, only 27 months into Correa's term, was required under Ecuador's new constitution. Results were not as strong for Correa's PAIS movement in other races, however. Preliminary reports are that PAIS fell short of a majority in the National Assembly and won only nine of 23 prefects (who govern provinces). Correa likely will now have an even freer hand at the central government level to implement his Citizen Revolution. End Summary. ANOTHER FOUR YEARS, NO SURPRISE HERE ¶2. (SBU) In a field of eight candidates, Rafael Correa of the Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement dominated the presidential race, winning in the first round, as expected. He was re-elected with 52% of the votes, according to the National Electoral Council, with 70% of the votes counted (as of noon on April 27). Voters dissatisfied with Correa were unimpressed with the uninspiring line-up of candidates, several of whom had run before. His closest rival, former president Lucio Gutierrez, did better than expected with 28%, apparently winning the protest vote as well as his usual supporters. (The above percentages exclude blank and invalid ballots.) With two exit polls and a quick count, the results were known early in the evening. Correa's margin of victory this time was much narrower than his win in the September 2008 constitutional referendum, where the constitution so closely associated with him gained the support of nearly 64% of the voters. ¶3. (SBU) Correa proclaimed victory based on exit polls in remarks made in Guayaquil only 15 minutes after polls closed. In a later statement made in Quito, he thanked the "millions" who worked for the citizens' revolution and rebuked the press once again. He said he was open to dialogue with Guayaquil mayor Nebot as long as Nebot understood his role was only as mayor, but ruled out any dialogue with Gutierrez and third place presidential candidate Alvaro Noboa. Correa promised to continue his campaign, saying, "I ratify my commitment not to take a step back...Today more radical than ever, clearer than ever, we are always on the side of the poor, we fight for social justice." ¶4. (SBU) Correa is the antithesis to the weak political leaders of Ecuador's past decade. His re-election contrasts starkly with Ecuador's previous three elected presidents, who were removed from office by popular protests before they concluded their terms. In fact, Correa is the first president to win re-election (subsequent or not) since 1968. MIXED RESULTS FOR PAIS IN OTHER RACES ¶5. (SBU) For the National Assembly, preliminary results from Citizen Participation's quick count showed PAIS with 44% of the 118 seats decided so far. (The Assembly will have 124 total seats.) The two exit polls predicted PAIS would have 42% and 50%. Even with slightly less than a majority, PAIS would likely still get its way in the Assembly with the support of the radical Popular Democratic Movement (MPD),but such a situation would obviously give MPD greater influence. ¶6. (SBU) Many analysts saw the local and provincial races as really the ones to watch during this uninspiring election run. In the three largest cities, PAIS candidate Augusto Barrera won Quito with 51% (a much larger margin than expected over a youthful rival),Guayaquil incumbent mayor Nebot unsurprisingly retained his office with 69%, and the Cuenca mayor's office remains too close to call. PAIS candidates lost to incumbent mayors in the major coastal cities of Manta, Babahoyo and Machala. ¶7. (SBU) Exit polls show that PAIS won only nine of the 23 prefect positions. (Prefects are the elected leaders of provinces, while governors are appointed by the president.) Pierina Correa was unable to cash in on her brother's popularity and lost the Guayas prefect to Nebot-supported candidate Jairala. PAIS handily won Pichincha, the province where Quito is located. A CHALLENGE MET, WITH MINOR IRREGULARITIES ¶7. (SBU) The newly established National Electoral Council carried out with overall success Ecuador's largest and most complex election in recent history, with six different ballots for each voter, 1,974 offices at stake, three different regulatory texts for electoral guidance, and new intermediate counting centers. There were no cases of violence. Although no major fraud was reported by the international and domestic observation teams, reports from U.S. Embassy and Consulate General volunteer observers, as well as other sources, indicate some minor problems. These include isolated reports of missing or marked ballots, failure of polling workers to follow proper counting procedures, and improper registration of military personnel, who were often not permitted to vote. Losing presidential candidate Gutierrez criticized even the exit polls as fraudulent, but other observers largely dismiss his criticism. The reports of the OAS and EU observer missions are not yet available. ¶8. (SBU) The National Electoral Council's regulation of campaign spending was somewhat more problematic (reftels). It had imposed two fines on the Correa campaign, but the Electoral Disputes Tribunal has now claimed the right to decide whether any fines or other penalties will be imposed, and dismissed one of the fines the National Electoral Council had announced. COMMENT ¶9. (C) Two years after taking office, Rafael Correa has managed to introduce a new political paradigm of a strong central government carrying out a "Citizens' Revolution," and now has a mandate to continue for four more years. Neither the National Assembly nor any other branch of government is likely to get in the way. This gives Correa the opportunity to implement policy as he sees fit, but also makes him responsible for the results. Speculation abounds that Correa's "true colors" will be evident now that this fourth election since his inauguration is over. Some commentators expect a move to the right (possibly including a national accord),and others predict he will move further to the left. While neither of those possibilities can be ruled out, it is quite probable that Correa will remain unpredictable, pragmatic on some points and radical on others, in part to keep together his broad coalition of supporters. The split results, with Correa winning in the first round while some other PAIS candidates not faring as well, may be an indicatation that Ecuadorian voters remain pragmatic, voting for candidates who deliver results, or somehow capture their aspirations. HODGES