COUNTDOWN TO ELECTIONS; PRESIDENT'S RACE FOREGONE

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000283

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV KPLS OAS EC
SUBJECT: COUNTDOWN TO ELECTIONS; PRESIDENT'S RACE FOREGONE
CONCLUSION

Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)


1. (SB...




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date: 4/23/2009 13:38
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C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000283

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV KPLS OAS EC
SUBJECT: COUNTDOWN TO ELECTIONS; PRESIDENT'S RACE FOREGONE
CONCLUSION

Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)


1. (SBU) Summary: With three days remaining before the
April 26 elections, President Correa sits comfortably ahead
of all other candidates, with polls showing him with enough
votes for a first-round win. Recently arrived
international election observation teams have reported
concern with how the lack of regulation of government
propaganda has played to the favor of the incumbent
government; however, fraud on election day is unlikely.
Overall, the presidential campaign has been lackluster,
with little real debate (face to face or otherwise) on
policy issues. Key outcomes to watch are the size of
Correa's margin, and the National Assembly and Quito
mayoral race results. End Summary.

LAST-MINUTE BLUNDER AND CAMPAIGN ADJUSTMENTS


2. (SBU) Three opposition political parties were omitted in
sample city council ballots for Ecuador's largest city of
Guayaquil on the Sunday preceding the elections. The party
lists missing were the New Option movement, the Patriotic
Society Party, and most notably, Guayaquil mayor and
leading candidate Jaime Nebot's Social Christian Party and
Warrior Material Movement alliance. The National Electoral
Council took responsibility for the error and the ballot
was reprinted in El Universo, the newspaper in which the
faulty ballot was originally published. However, the
reprinted sample ballot appeared in a small space on an
inside page of the newspaper, while a GOE advertisement
praising the government's stewardship of the economy took
up the prominent back page of the paper.


3. (SBU) On April 16, the National Electoral Council
announced that Correa would be prohibited from transmitting
his weekly radio and TV address the Saturday before
elections, in accordance with electoral rule that no
candidate may make public appearances, or activities with
"proselytizing" characteristics between April 23 and 27.
This is on the heels of a National Electoral Council
decision in late March to fine Correa $650 for criticizing
his presidential opponents during his weekly public address
and its threat to suspend the programs completely if he
made any more references to other candidates. After a
public exchange of critical words with the Council, Correa
and his Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement
submitted an official appeal to the Electoral Disputes
Tribunal on April 6, and Correa at least avoided referring
to his opponents by name during his April 11 address. The
appeal, along with the March 12 appeal of the "Hey Jude"
fine, is still awaiting a ruling from the Tribunal.

NEW VOTERS EFFECT


4. (SBU) New segments of the population, totaling almost
one million of 10.5 million voters expected overall, will
be given the opportunity to vote in the elections as
mandated by the new constitution. Youth between the ages
of 16 and 18, Ecuadorians residing outside of Ecuador,
foreigners residing legally within Ecuador, military and
police, and inmates still awaiting sentences are entitled
to go to the polling booths for the first time on April

26. Although not obligatory, over half a million youths
were registered, followed by 185,000 external Ecuadorians,
nearly 100,000 military and police officers, over 80,000
non-Ecuadorians with at least five years of legal residence
in the country, and 2,700 inmates. The local NGO, Citizen
Participation has expressed concern with potential voting
bias among youths, whose voter education was suspected to
be influenced by the leftist teachers' union, and the
military and police, whose independence from the government
has been questioned in light of recent increases in their
government benefits.

POLLS IN CORREA'S FAVOR


5. (SBU) According to all three major polls, Correa has the
necessary 40% of the total votes, plus 10% more than the
runner-up, to win the presidency in the first round. Since
release of polling data was forbidden starting 20 days
before the election, the latest published data is from late
March and early April. At that time, Correa continued to
lead the next closest presidential candidate by 32, 39 and
41 points, according to polling firms Market, CEDATOS and
Santiago Perez, respectively, and hovered around the 50%
total vote mark by all three. It is likely that Correa

will cinch the Presidency in the first round, with former
president Lucio Gutierrez and banana tycoon Alvaro Noboa
trailing far behind.

PRESIDENTIAL WIN, BUT NOT A CLEAN SWEEP


6. (SBU) Unlike the expected PAIS presidential victory,
National Assembly seats and local offices continue to be
hotly contested. According to pollster Santiago Perez's
data from April 5, PAIS is slated to win a slight majority
within the legislature (53%),but not enough to block the
opposition from taking initial actions to remove cabinet
members. This outcome would mark a significant decrease
from the 61% of assembly seats they currently hold in the
temporary legislature. PAIS's showing in the CEDATOS poll
from March 22 is much lower, with only 30%, but 46%
undecided.


7. (SBU) At the municipal level, running as part of
Correa's PAIS movement has not necessarily proven to be the
golden ticket for local PAIS candidates. The race for the
mayor of Quito continues to be one of the closest, with the
PAIS candidate Augusto Barrera edging out Antonio Ricaurte
38% to 29% and 31% to 27%, according to Market and CEDATOS
respectively. Current mayor of Guayaquil Jaime Nebot
continues to enjoy a comfortable lead, with nearly 70% of
the vote. In the province of El Oro where Correa has a 63%
approval rating, the PAIS mayoral candidate for the
provincial capital only has 20% support, compared to the
opposition candidate's 70%.

CONCERNS SURFACE FROM PRE-ELECTION OBSERVATION


8. (SBU) The two principal international observation
missions by the European Union and the Organization of
American States have both expressed concerns during the
pre-election week with the limited training and resources
for the new and controversial intermediate counting centers
(juntas intermedias). Another major issue raised has been
the lack of clarity in the electoral public finance
legislation that has allowed excessive usage of official
government publicity. One example occurred on the April 21
weekly public service announcement by the GOE which was
essentially a 10-minute defense of the new criminal code
that has been openly critized by the opposition in the
latter half of the campaign. According to Citizen
Participation, Correa's official campaign has only spent
$300,235 of publically financed election money as of April
17; however, the total amount of government publicity
financed during the same period reached over $2 million
dollars. This corresponds to almost 2300 minutes of extra
air time, or over four times the amount of the next highest
air time of any presidential candidate.


9. (SBU) USG support for this year's election totals over
half a million dollars. The OAS mission received $225,000
from the USOAS, and there will be nine U.S. Embassy and
Consulate volunteer observers. USAID is providing a total
of $269,000 of technical assistance to the GOE National
Electoral Council to implement a country-wide
voters-with-disabilities campaign and to the Electoral
Disputes Tribunal to increase their institutional capacity
through trainings and operational support. The major
domestic observation effort by USAID-supported NGO Citizen
Participation, will have 8,000 observers in all 24
provinces to monitor election-day proceedings. Citizen
Participation will also conduct a quick count of the
presidential and assembly races that will be produced
parallel to the official GOE count.

COMMENT


10. (C) A combination of election fatigue and universal
acceptance of another four years of a Correa presidency has
made for an uninteresting election at the national level.
The lack of new ideas amongst the other presidential
hopefuls, or any sincere attempt to address issues of
concern, has left the Ecuadorian electorate with no
alternative to the status quo. The local campaign races
have proven to be more dynamic, and it is likely that any
substantial opposition to a future Correa administration
will come from local government leaders.
HODGES

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