KOSOVO: SECOND ROUND OF MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS COULD SET STAGE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRISTINA 000543 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, INL, DRL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM EAID SR KV SUBJECT: KOSOVO: SECOND ROUND OF MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS COULD SET STAGE FOR EARLY NATIONAL ELECTIONS REF: A. PRISTINA 477 ¶B. PRISTINA 492 ¶C. PRISTINA 518 PRISTINA 00000543 001.2 OF 004 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Central Election Commission (CEC) certified the November 15 first round mayoral election results on December 4, which sets the stage for runoff elections on December 13 in the 21 municipalities where no mayoral candidate won an outright majority. The election results, thus far, from the November 15 municipal elections illuminate stark shifts to the political field being contested between Kosovo's three major parties. Ramush Haradinaj's opposition Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) enjoyed a large leap in prominence and credibility in the first round, and is the elections' biggest victor. The Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) improved over its 2007 showing and could enjoy more municipal victories thanks to alliances for the second round with AAK. The ruling Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) again showed that it is the largest and most stable party in Kosovo, but it did not dominate in the face of larger-than-expected turnout. PDK will contest 16 runoff elections and faces stiff competition from both AAK and LDK. Both the New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) and the Democratic League of Dardania (LDD) fared poorly, with significant collapses in voter support. The outcome of the second round of voting December 13 may embolden AAK and LDK to force early elections, perhaps in the first six months of the new year, with each hoping that an AAK-LDK partnership can force PDK from power. A municipality-by-municipality tabulation of mayoral results follows in paragraph nine. END SUMMARY CEC CERTIFIES MAYORAL RESULTS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Kosovo's Central Elections Commission (CEC),on December 4, certified the first-round results for mayoral elections held on November 15. (Note: See final results table in paragraph nine. End Note) The final first round results set up runoff elections in 21 municipalities. Prime Minister Hashim Thaci's Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) will compete in 16 of the runoffs, President Sejdiu's Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) in 11, and Ramush Haradinaj's opposition Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) in seven. PDK will face its coalition partner LDK in nine races and the AAK in four. Those races where the PDK faces LDK or AAK will draw special attention, as LDK and AAK have entered into a controversial election alliance that prompted Thaci to threaten on November 19 that he was kicking LDK out of the ruling coalition (Ref C). Thaci ultimately changed his mind, but enmity between PDK and LDK remains, and many speculate that AAK, with the support of LDK voters, can pick up some extra mayor's offices in these runoffs. GJAKOVA/DJAKOVICA SETTLED (FOR NOW) -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The CEC's certification came amid a tense debate between its Chair, Nesrin Lushta, and New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) representative Fadil Malloku, who argued that the CEC should not certify results until the Supreme Court had reviewed legal challenges that AKR had filed regarding allegations of fraud in Gjakova/Djakovica municipality. AKR's Mimoza Kusari-Lila, in her first run for political office, fought a tough campaign in Gjakova/Djakovica, but lost to incumbent AAK mayor Pal Lekaj amid controversy over alleged vote fraud. Though the Election Complaints and Appeals Commission (ECAC) invalidated the results in several polling stations based on AKR complaints, it was not enough to change the result. Kosovo's election law, however, only mandates that the CEC confirm that there are no outstanding election cases at the ECAC and the Constitutional Court prior to certifying results. With the campaign period for December 13 mayoral runoff elections due to start, the CEC was compelled to certify results on December 4, with commission members voting to certify results over Malloku's objections. AAK: POISED TO BREAKOUT -------------- PRISTINA 00000543 002.2 OF 004 ¶4. (SBU) AAK won 95,122 votes nationwide, or 15.1 percent of the vote, an historic leap forward for a party that had never received more than 62,000 votes or 10 percent of the vote nationwide. In addition to Gjakova/Djakovica, AAK won outright the mayoralty in Decan/Decane. It should coast to an easy second-round victory in Peje/Pec, another AAK stronghold, and Junik, where it fell just short of an outright majority in the first round. AAK's primary focus on December 13 will be Suhareke/Suva Reka, where its mayoral candidate Blerim Kuci, a former LDK heavyweight, heads into the runoff with a narrow lead over his PDK opponent. This race will test both AAK's attempt to crystallize for the public that its appeal can extend beyond western Kosovo and its second round alliance with the LDK. As December 13 draws near, the alliance with AAK is proving difficult to stomach for some in LDK, and we have seen sporadic back-sliding in LDK support for certain AAK municipal candidates. This dynamic is visible in Suhareke/Suva Reka where LDK suffered its only incumbent loss of the election to LDK turncoat Kuci. AAK is also counting on its LDK alliance to turn its strong second place showing in Kline/Klina (where it trailed PDK by only five percent) into a runoff victory. LDK: CONFUSING SURVIVAL FOR VICTORY -------------- ¶5. (SBU) LDK party leaders were exultant over their performance in the first round of municipal elections, although LDK's jubilation is rooted more in the fact that the party stopped the electoral hemorrhaging of 2007 than in any clear electoral gains. LDK entered November's elections holding on to five mayoralties and can comfortably predict that it will hold on to the same number after December's run-off elections in Podujeve/Podujevo, Istog/Istok, Novoberde/Novo Brdo and Fushe Kosovo/Kosovo Polje in addition to its impressive first-round victory in Pristina. However, any further pick-ups will be hard-fought slugfests against PDK where LDK is battling from behind to overcome electoral deficits ranging from a couple points to more than ten points trailing PDK in nine municipal run-off elections. Strong second-place showings combined with its tactical alliance with AAK give LDK its best opportunities for run-off gains in Prizren, Lipjan/Lipljan, and Dragash/Dragas with tougher prospects in Obiliq/Obilic and Gjilan/Gnjilane. Public feuding before and after November 15 with its coalition partner PDK, arguably, is giving LDK a boost of confidence, as it has stood up to its larger, stronger partner and reenergized its party base with a newly self-assured LDK leadership that is, at least temporarily, in rare fighting form heading into runoff elections. PDK: WINNING AND STUMBLING AT THE SAME TIME -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In 2007, PDK won 18 of the 26 municipalities where election results were certified. The party's overwhelming municipal electoral victories in 2007 left PDK with a large realm to defend and little room for improvement this year. PDK's reliable voter base gave the party more votes than any other party in the first round, but it won few mayor's offices outright. It does, however, go into the second round with first place finishes in all of the mayor's offices it won in 2007 except for Viti/Vitina where it trailed LDD in a close race. The experience from prior municipal elections shows that the leading party going into run-off elections almost always wins in the second round, as supporters for non-contending parties typically do not show up at the polls. This year may be different, however. The LDK-AAK tactical alliance for the upcoming runoff elections are troubling developments for PM Thaci and his PDK. If LDK and AAK can convince their supporters to cross party lines, then PDK stands a plausible chance of seeing its incumbent mayors lose in Prizren, Obiliq/Obilic, Kline/Klina, Lipjan/Lipljan, Kamenice/Kamenica, Dragash/Dragas, Gjilan/Gnjilane and possibly Rahovec/Orahovac. AKR AND LDD: SINKING SHIPS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Behgjet Pacolli's AKR and Nexhat Daci's Democratic League of Dardania (LDD) both flopped in November's municipal elections. The parties suffered substantial drops in voter support despite joining forces in an election alliance. Neither party won any PRISTINA 00000543 003.2 OF 004 municipality outright, and each has only one meaningful municipal race to contest going into the run-off elections. AKR's only candidate left standing for the runoffs is a local activist in Mitrovica, Nexhmedin Spahiu, who has told us that AKR is withholding its support for his candidacy over political differences, and Spahiu has poor odds to unseat PDK from the mayor's office. LDD's performance was even more crushing, given that it inherited significant local party structures throughout Kosovo after it broke away from LDK. LDD will compete against PDK in a second round context in Viti/Vitina. Whatever the outcome there, LDD party leader Nexhat Daci could face a leadership challenge because of LDD's poor showing in the elections. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Both AAK and LDK are animated going into the second round of municipal elections, and their resurgence has thrown PDK an unexpected curve. AAK, long frustrated by its inability to challenge PDK from its narrow political base, now sees the opportunity to grow into a competitive, nationwide party. LDK is buoyed by its self-perceptions that it has returned from the dead, and it has found the confidence to stand up to PDK browbeating, a notable development for an LDK leadership not known for its political courage. The tactical alliance between AAK and LDK for these runoffs could prove to be all sound and fury, and it will signify nothing if it fails to produce municipal victories for both parties. PDK undoubtedly will come out with more mayors and more votes than either AAK or LDK, but if the smaller two parties can overcome old animosities they could see opportunities to work together that will almost certainly spur early elections, perhaps in the first six months of 2010. BY THE NUMERS -------------- ¶9. (U) The following is a tabulation of all 21 municipal run-off elections scheduled for Sunday, December 13. Municipality First Place Second Place Party (%) Party (%) -------------- --- Gjilan/Gnjilane PDK (38.7) LDK (27.6) Dragash/Dragas PDK (39.5) LDK (37.2) Istog/Istok LDK (47.5) AAK (21.5) Kacanik PDK (48.4) AAK (26.6) Kline/Klina PDK (36.8) AAK (31.9) Kamenice/Kamenica PDK (33.2) LDK (21.7) Mitrovice/Mitrovica PDK (39.2) AKR (22.6) Lipjan/Lipljan PDK (42.7) LDK (39.1) Novoberde/Novo Brdo LDK (43.7) SNSD (11.5) Obiliq/Obilic PDK (32.5) LDK (24.4) Rahovec/Orahovac PDK (36.0) LDK (22.8) Peje/Pec AAK (43.7) LDD (15.9) Podujeve/Podujevo LDK (49.9) PDK (30.6) Prizren PDK (32.3) LDK (29.7) Shterpce/Strpce SLS (40.4) PDK (24.3) Suhareke/Suva Reka AAK (34.0) PDK (32.6) Viti/Vitina LDD (33.3) PDK (30.0) Vushtrri/Vucitrn PDK (49.0) AAK (26.4) Malisheve/Malisevo PDK (47.0) LDK (32.2) Junik AAK (49.6) LDK (32.7) Hani i Elezit Suma (44.3) PDK (36.5) Candidates won an outright majority in 15 municipalities where there is no need for a runoff. Municipality First Place Second Place Party (%) Party (%) -------------- --- Decan/Decani AAK (67.8) LDK (18.7) Gjakove/Djakovica AAK (51.9) AKR (41.5) Gllogovc/Glogovac PDK (90.5) AAK (9.5) Fushe Kosove/ PRISTINA 00000543 004.2 OF 004 Kosovo Polje LDK (56.9) PDK (24.9) Leposavic/Leposaviq AAK (100) [34 votes] Pristina LDK (57.2) AKR (22.3) Skenderaj/Serbica PDK (85) LDD (10.8) Shtime/Stimlje PDK (50.6) LDK (25.9) Ferizaj/Urosevac PDK (50.5) AKR (16.3) Zubin Potok PDK (53.3) AAK (46.7) Zvecan AAK (100) [33 votes] Mamushe/Mamusha KDTP (80.1) AKR (12.1) Gracanica SLS (60.9) Vidovdan (12.1) Ranilug/Ranillug GIZOR (71.1) SKMS (28.9) Kllokot/Klokot SLS (100) DELL