MAINTAINING KOSOVO'S POST-ELECTION MOMENTUM: CREATING AN

UNCLAS PRISTINA 000527

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, INL, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM EAID SR KV
SUBJECT: MAINTAINING KOSOVO'S POST-ELECTION MOMENTUM: CREATING AN
ANCHOR FOR SERBS IN KOSOVO

REF: A) PRISTINA 510 AND PREVIOUS B) PRISTINA 357

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED Q PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: November 15 municipal elections in Kosovo saw
levels of Serb turnout not seen in years, with Serbs winning the
mayor's offices of three new Serb-majority municipalities outright
and gaining an opportunity to contest "new" Novo Brdo and Strpce in
December runoffs. This turnout presents a rare opportunity to make
decentralization -- the key to Serb participation in Kosovo
structures -- work. We need to take advantage of it. With this in
mind, our short-term strategy will focus on maintaining the momentum
as we move towards the December 13 runoffs where successes in new
Novo Brdo and/or Strpce would help cement our gains on November 15.
Over the longer-term, we must pursue a strategy that: 1) engages
with the new municipalities and ensures their success (this may
require additional assistance resources); 2) focuses on the two
Ahtisaari-mandated Serb-majority municipalities that have yet to
hold an election, including North Mitrovica; and, 3) ensures the
Kosovo Government makes the policy and financial decisions required
to support decentralization. These steps are important, but they
are not sufficient. We must do more to counter Belgrade's pressure
on the Kosovo Serb community. Finally, we also believe that it is
now time to begin challenging the legitimacy of the illegal Serb
parallel structures in Kosovo. END SUMMARY

BIG SERB WINS IN MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS
--------------


2. (SBU) As results are finalized, we are beginning to get a clearer
picture of the small revolution that occurred among ethnic Serb
voters south of the Ibar River during Kosovo's November 15 municipal
elections. Serb mayors were elected outright in the
newly-decentralized Serb-majority municipalities of
Gracanica/Gracanice, Klokot/Kllokot, and Ranilug/Ranillug, and Serb
candidates will take part in December 13 runoff elections for mayor
in the newly expanded municipality of Novo Brdo/Noveberde and in
majority Kosovo Serb Strpce/Shterpce. Serbs in Strpce have a
legitimate chance to elect Bratislav Nikolic of SLS, who won 36.9
percent of the vote in round one, if they turn out in sufficient
numbers. Prime Minister Thaci told us on November 18 that his PDK
will not run hard in Strpce, but we expect Strpce's Albanian
community to stand behind the PDK's candidate.


3. (SBU) Significant Serb turnout should also translate into
participation in Kosovo's municipal assemblies. Municipal assembly
seats are awarded according to a proportional representation system.
Apportionment will not be finalized until official results are
certified, which should occur sometime in the next few days.
Nonetheless, preliminary, uncertified results are positive. Kosovo
Serbs should dominate the assemblies in Gracanica and Ranilug. They
should also form the single largest blocs in Klokot and Strpce,
while the 28 percent of votes cast for Kosovo Serb candidates in
Novo Brdo, a municipality thought to be fairly evenly balanced
between Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs, should ensure a
multi-ethnic municipal assembly coalition.

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM FOR ROUND TWO
--------------


4. (SBU) The municipal election results provide us with an historic,
but limited, opportunity to help Kosovo Serbs, at least those south
of the Ibar, to integrate into Kosovo structures. We need to seize
it. The first challenge is maintaining the momentum as we head into
the December 13 runoffs. The historic Serb turnout on November 15
was, in part, a function of a weeks-long effort by the international
community to encourage Serb participation. Serb turnout is even
more critical for the second round of balloting in Strpce and Novo
Brdo. With this in mind, we will continue to pursue our political,
public diplomacy, and assistance strategies aimed at emphasizing the
benefits of and the need for local citizens to run their own
governments. We will communicate this message through visible
project support for majority-Serb municipalities, appearances by the
Ambassador at media roundtables with candidates, and interviews with
the Ambassador for local media that receive Serb attention.

MAKING THE NEW MUNICIPALITIES GO
--------------


5. (SBU) Second, we are also starting to look ahead to see how we
can ensure that the new ethnic Serb-majority municipalities succeed.
We must avoid Serb leaders inheriting empty shells as municipal
structures that do not afford them the tools they need to develop
thriving, self-governing communities for Kosovo's Serbs. The
municipal preparation teams (MPTs) that have been laying the
foundation for Gracanica, Klokot, Ranilug, and the expanded Novo
Brdo to operate as functioning municipalities will disband at the
end of the year. With U.S. assistance, these MPTs have created the
organograms for the new municipalities; have ensured that the new
municipalities can respond with provisional measures to fulfill
devolved responsibilities such as social welfare, health care, and
education; and have established mechanisms for basic services such
as trash collection and fire protection.


6. (SBU) These initial steps have developed a skeletal frame for the
new municipalities, but it does not mean that they are ready to
stand on their own. While we sense that some of our European
partners are ready to declare decentralization a completed success
now that elections have taken place, this transition point only
marks the start of the hard work to follow. In fact, our engagement
with the new municipalities needs to intensify, and as we have
suggested previously, our work must focus on four key areas: 1)
governance structure; 2) organizational structure; 3)
competencies/services; and, 4) facilities and equipment (Ref. B).
This may require greater assistance resources from Washington and
will necessitate a close examination of our plan for working in the
new municipalities. We have one chance to get decentralization
right, and we cannot afford to let these new municipalities limp
with crippled resources and uncertain direction. They must thrive
from day one.

FOCUSING ON PARTESH AND NORTH MITROVICA
--------------


7. (SBU) Two remaining Ahtisaari-mandated, Serb-majority
municipalities have not yet held elections: Partesh and North
Mitrovica. Elections are planned to take place in both
municipalities in May 2010. There are reasonable prospects for
success in Partesh, which is almost 100 percent Serb and located
south of the Ibar. Success in North Mitrovica will be much more
difficult to achieve. The MPT process alone will not be a
sufficiently robust vehicle to promote political participation in
North Mitrovica, and our avenues for constructively engaging Serbs
north of the Ibar are limited. However, the success of
decentralization in Gracanica, Klokot, Ranilug, and "new" Novo Brdo,
and progress in Strpce would demonstrate that decentralization's
benefits are real and tangible. Though this does not guarantee
success in the north, without it there is little prospect of
countering claims from parallel structures and elsewhere that
decentralization is a mirage.

GETTING THE KOSOVO GOVERNMENT TO DO ITS PART
--------------


7. (SBU) The GOK has primary responsibility for ensuring
decentralization's success, and its record has been spotty so far.
We have had to push and prod the Ministry for Local Government
Administration (MLGA) to appoint MPTs, and the minister, Sadri
Ferati, has often been hesitant to proceed without an explicit green
light from Prime Minister Thaci. Too often we have seen the GOK try
to put decentralization on the back burner. The reasons are many:
it is a concept imposed by the international community; Albanians
generally oppose carving out land that will reify separate Serb
political structures; the PDK is uncomfortable with a process that
runs against its preference for centralizing power in its own hands;
the mother municipalities often oppose losing territory; and,
nationalist organizations like Vetevendosje have caricatured
decentralization as an assault on the Albanian nation and Kosovo
statehood. GOK inaction, however, is unacceptable, and we will
continue to work to ensure that the central government recognizes
its responsibility to make decentralization work, both in the new
municipalities and through the extension of additional competencies

to all municipalities that is mandated by law.


8. (SBU) We have spoken to Thaci about making some significant
gestures and investments in the new municipalities -- for example, a
new hospital in Gracanica that will fill a long-standing need and
that will fall outside the control of parallel structures -- and we
are pushing both the Prime Minister and the President to initiate a
public outreach campaign that addresses Serbs as Kosovo citizens and
welcomes and respects them as national resources, voters, and
neighbors. We must also work with the MLGA and the Ministry of
Finance and Economy to guarantee that the new municipalities receive
the resources they need to operate. This includes funding that was
awarded to the mother municipalities for standing up new
municipalities and now risks being returned to the central
government without being used. We are telling the GOK that
decentralization is an international mandate, but it is Kosovo's
responsibility, and we will be watching and judging the GOK's
actions.

COUNTERING BELGRADE'S INTERFERENCE
--------------


9. (SBU) Pushing the GOK to do the right thing, however, will not
yield results unless we can also get Belgrade to ease its pressure
on Serbs living in Kosovo. Following the November 15 elections,
Serbian Ministry for Kosovo State Secretary Oliver Ivanovic told the
media that the Serb turnout in Kosovo's elections had shaken
official Belgrade, and he suggested that Belgrade needs to change
its engagement with Kosovo Serbs. Serbian Minister for Kosovo Goran
Bogdanovic alleged the polls had been manipulated and questioned the
likelihood that Kosovo Serbs will ever receive institutional support
from Albanians in the GOK. We take these statements to mean that
the Government of Serbia (GOS),or recalcitrant elements within it,
may renew efforts to promote parallel structures by threatening to
cut financial ties and other benefits to Serbs who engage with
Kosovo institutions. We will likely need to regularly remind the
GOS of Kosovo Serbs' right to engage with Kosovo institutions,
without fear of retribution, in order to survive as a community.

RETHINKING TOLERANCE OF PARALLEL STRUCTURES
--------------


10. (SBU) As we work on Belgrade, we also need to take advantage of
increasing Serb voter participation to take on Serbian parallel
government structures in Kosovo. The parallel structures are
illegal institutions that perpetuate the myth that Serbia still
controls Kosovo and only Serbia can serve Kosovo Serbs' needs. This
is dangerous and keeps Kosovo Serbs in a state of limbo and
insecurity. Annex Two of United Nations Security Council Resolution
(UNSCR) 1244 -- a document that Belgrade uses as a tool to prevent
Serb integration in Kosovo -- specifies how Serbian personnel may
operate in Kosovo, and there is no role for any kind of Serbian
civilian administration. We believe it is time to underscore that
the parallel institutions are illegal, and Serbia's continued
support for them violates UNSCR 1244. It is the international
community's responsibility to lead this charge. We do not want the
GOK taking on Serbian parallel personnel and structures -- a certain
recipe for major unrest among Kosovo Serbs that would reverse our
recent gains -- but we need to start delegitimizing Serbia's claims
in Kosovo. It is time to confront Belgrade with its own hypocrisy.

USING SERBIAN MEDIA FOR KOSOVO'S BENEFIT
--------------


11. (SBU) One tool for confronting Belgrade and for reaching
Kosovo's Serbs is the Serbian media, an underutilized resource for
local outreach. Serbian media remain the fundamental source of news
for Kosovo Serbs, who pay scant attention to Kosovo Albanian and
locally produced Serb-language media sources. Responsible coverage
in Serbia could help convince Serbs in Kosovo and in Serbia, itself,
of the benefits of decentralization and electoral participation. It
is critical to get responsible, thoughtful Kosovo Serb leaders and
politicians on select Belgrade media. We want to see trusted Kosovo
Serb voices arguing for a large audience the case for
decentralization and for Serb engagement with Kosovo institutions.
Let Kosovo Serbs counter the Serbian government's rhetoric on its

own territory, on its own airwaves. Talented orators, such as
newly-elected mayor of Gracanica Bojan Stojanovic (SLS),do not have
the resources or contacts to garner national coverage from Serbian
media outlets. With Embassy Belgrade's assistance, it may be
possible to get a media platform for certain Kosovo Serb
politicians, especially with a view to runoff elections in Novo Brdo
and Strpce, races that pit Serbs against Albanians.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (SBU) Initial success in municipal elections has given Kosovo
Serb parties a chance to prove themselves. We now need to make sure
that these nascent Kosovo Serb leaders and municipal structures
succeed. Decentralization's success -- our best hope for
significant Serb participation in Kosovo -- hinges on developing
these municipalities into thriving, economically viable communities.
Each bit of progress will make it easier to convince more Serbs
that there are rewards for operating within Kosovo institutions and
cooperating with Albanians. Achieving this progress will require
comprehensive cooperation among the international community, the
GOK, and the Serb community. It will require resources, assistance,
and expertise. Success now means real implementation of the
Ahtisaari Plan and anchoring in place the multi-ethnic Kosovo which
is the crux of USG policy here. While the specifics of how to deal
with northern Kosovo remain cloudy, successful new municipalities
south of the Ibar will be an important agent of change there as
well. We cannot lose this opportunity, and we need to be able to
step up with the investments and the resources required to
capitalize on the opportunities that these extremely successful
municipal elections afford us.

DELL