KOSOVO: PDK'S CHALLENGE -- DEFENDING GAINS FROM '07

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000495 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/PGI, INL, DRL, PRM, USAID E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KV SUBJECT: KOSOVO: PDK'S CHALLENGE -- DEFENDING GAINS FROM '07 REF: A) PRISTINA 477 B) PRISTINA 492 PRISTINA 00000495 001.2 OF 003 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK),Kosovo's ruling party since 2007, is heading into the November 15 local elections facing tough competition in municipal races from both the opposition Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) and from its national coalition partner the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). PDK retains the impressive cohesion and organizational strength that propelled it to victory in 16 mayoral races in 2007 -- the PDK had previously controlled just six. However, Prime Minister Hashim Thaci's party is at risk of losing several municipalities in the face of surging competition from its opponents and popular disenchantment with its rule. The party's growing reputation for corruption and unease over its attempts to centralize political power in its hands may prompt voters to send a message to PDK this Sunday, their last chance to do so before national elections to be held no later than 2011. END SUMMARY BLAST FROM THE PAST: PDK's 2007 "LANDSLIDE" -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The 2007 general and municipal elections were a landslide for the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) that saw it return to power at the central level and take control of over half of Kosovo's then 30 existing municipalities. However, PDK's victory in 2007 was not the result of a popular movement of voters toward the party, but rather its ability to maintain its base of support in spite of historically low voter turnout that contributed to a collapse of support for the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). (Note: The LDK was suffering from a leadership struggle and a splintering of the party. End Note) This year both LDK and Ramush Haradinaj's opposition AAK are climbing in opinion polls as they run professional campaigns that are appealing to Kosovo's voters. PDK has a fight on its hands. ¶3. (SBU) In this fight, PDK has several clear strengths and weaknesses. Chief among its weaknesses is a reputation for corruption and crime. No fewer than three of PDK's mayoral candidates have prior criminal convictions and/or face felony charges (Sami Lushtaku, Skenderaj/Srbica: convicted for threatening a judge; Xhabir Zharku, Podujeve/Podujevo: two arrests for kidnapping, obstruction of justice; and, Shukri Buja, Lipjan/Lipljan: vehicular homicide). That said, PDK enjoys the natural advantages of incumbency -- patronage and power. Another PDK asset is Prime Minister Thaci, a tireless campaigner who has promised voters an impressive, if not always plausible, array of public sector projects and new investment as he barnstorms across Kosovo in support of PDK candidates. PRISTINA: THE UNATTAINABLE PRIZE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) PDK is waging a street fight to win the mayor's office in Pristina, Kosovo's largest municipality, with over 20 per cent of its population. PDK mayoral candidate Astrit Salihu, a philosophy professor, civil society activist, and former advisor to Thaci, trails incumbent LDK Mayor Isa Mustafa by twenty points or more in most surveys. Although the race is Mustafa's to lose, Salihu has attacked him at every opportunity with a series of negative campaign advertisements (a first for Kosovo politics) criticizing his administration for failing to rein in booming illegal construction, reduce growing traffic congestion or invest more in the city's dilapidated infrastructure. As a result, Salihu is likely to be able to force a runoff December 13. (Note: Mayoral candidates must win at least 50 percent plus 1 of the vote on November 15 in order to win outright. Otherwise, the two leading vote getters square off in a run-off election. End Note) Mustafa will almost certainly remain Pristina's mayor, but PDK would consider it a victory of sorts for the party if Salihu can keep the race close and force a run-off. PRISTINA 00000495 002.2 OF 003 MITROVICA: THE GOOD . . . -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Unlike Pristina, PDK's candidate for mayor of Mitrovica, Avni Kastrati, has a strong chance to win and to succeed the incumbent PDK Mayor Bahram Rexhepi. We recently met Kastrati, a local businessman with over twenty years experience as a distributor for foreign oil products companies. Kastrati's platform for Mitrovica, an ethnically divided city that straddles the divide between the Kosovo Serb-majority north and the rest of the country, emphasized the importance of resolving the volatile ethnic divide in the city and building the local economy. Security and freedom of movement are at the forefront of Kastrati's platform, which includes cooperation with the international community to resolve Mitrovica's ethnic troubles. Kastrati, an engaged politician who displays a competent command of local politics, also discussed in detail his proposals for economic development to create jobs and improve infrastructure. Mitrovica looks to be a two-man race between Kastrati and LDK candidate Mursel Ibrahimi, who enjoys some local strength from a well-developed local party structure. However, in 2007 PDK outpolled LDK by a margin of 36 per cent to 21 per cent, and PDK's generally able administration of the city gives Kastrati a commanding position. PRIZREN: THE BAD . . . -------------- ¶6. (SBU) PDK's chances to hold Prizren, the key to Kosovo's south, are much more tenuous. In October, Prime Minister Thaci made the extraordinary promise to invest 170 million Euros in Prizren and has made numerous campaign visits to the city. PDK wants to keep this important municipality -- with Kosovo's fourth-largest city and its main cultural attraction -- and it faces a major challenge from the LDK. In a recent meeting the incumbent PDK mayor, Ramadan Muja, was more impressive as a tour guide than a big city mayor; he spent most of his time regaling us with stories about Prizren's 2,500 year history and the travails of its Albanian population in the ethnically-mixed city. He offered only a spotty review of his campaign platform and evaded most questions about local politics or his accomplishments. According to his LDK challenger, Hanefi Mujarremi, this is because Muja's accomplishments are few. Mujarremi, a former director of municipal services and long-time LDK party leader in Prizren, told us that the city's investment from the central government -- approximately ten million Euros for new roads -- has all been approved in the last few weeks and comes with speculation that Thaci will cancel the projects if his party loses the election in Prizren. We expect this race to be one of the country's closest. In 2007, PDK edged LDK by a hair in the first round, 28 per cent to 25 per cent. GJILAN/GNJILANE: AND THE UGLY -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In the 2007 municipal elections in Gjilan/Gnjilane, PDK incumbent Mayor Qemajl Mustafa trounced his LDK opponent by 14 percentage points in first round voting before finishing her off by a two-to-one margin in the runoff. Mustafa may find it difficult to repeat this performance against a reenergized LDK (ref B). Mustafa, an outsider in Gjilan, has a politician's easy manner, but his electoral prospects took a hit on October 28 when members of the Prime Minister's security detail, in town for a PDK campaign rally Thaci was attending, beat two young LDK activists who were hanging posters for LDK municipal candidate Fatmir Rexhepi. The beating took place in full public view and resulted in the youths, not the detail, being detained by police. The incident has energized LDK supporters, damaged Mustafa and reinforced an image for thuggishness that bedevils PDK nationwide. Mustafa is also defending himself from accusations that he and local PDK officials have enriched themselves through corrupt infrastructure projects. The Gjilan/Gnjilane race is a wide open contest that could cost PDK control of one of the country's important municipalities. COMMENT -------------- PRISTINA 00000495 003.2 OF 003 ¶8. (SBU) Serious challenges in individual municipal races should not obscure the impressive assets that PDK enjoys as it enters Sunday's election. The party is united, disciplined, and energized. It possesses impressive organizational strength as demonstrated by enthusiastic, well-attended campaign rallies and a sophisticated media strategy evident in campaign ads that blanket the airwaves and city streets across Kosovo. As the incumbent party in both the central government and in sixteen municipalities, PDK has control over coveted government jobs and valuable government resources, campaign assets that it lacked in previous elections. Victory in 2007 gave PDK enhanced tools to cling to power, but this year's election now exposes it to voters who can pass judgment on the party for its failings as well as its accomplishments. Surveys and anecdotal evidence both betray widespread antipathy among Kosovo voters for growing corruption under PDK -- notably in much-touted infrastructure projects such as new roads -- as well as an unease among some who charge PDK with undermining Kosovo's fledgling democracy by stacking government institutions with party loyalists to the exclusion of other voices. Many Kosovo citizens also fault PDK for a reputation for coarse criminality and brutish behavior; the Gjilan/Gnjilane incident involving the Prime Minister's bodyguards is an untimely reminder for a PDK trying to overcome this loutish image. Tight, competitive races in Gjilan/Gnjilane, Prizren, and other PDK-controlled municipalities could see an erosion of support for the party even as it maintains a plurality of mayoralties. DELL