KOSOVO: AAK'S NEW BLOOD ELECTION STRATEGY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000477 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/PGI, INL, DRL, PRM, USAID E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KV SUBJECT: KOSOVO: AAK'S NEW BLOOD ELECTION STRATEGY PRISTINA 00000477 001.2 OF 003 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Kosovo's leading opposition party, the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK),is attempting to refashion itself from a regional party dogged by its own corruption-plagued past into a national party that can convince voters to give it a second chance at governing. As part of this strategy, AAK has recruited new leadership and a new type of candidate for the municipal election scheduled for November 15. While many of these new leaders carry the traditional KLA pedigree, they have often distinguished themselves since the conflicts of the 1990s in other leadership capacities as well. Some of the new blood that AAK has recruited will carry the party banner in critical races in municipalities like Suhareka/ Suva Reka and Vushtrri/Vucitrn, bellwether races for the success of AAK's strategy, which many deem risky, but necessary, in order to position the party for future success in general elections. END SUMMARY OVERCOMING THE PAST -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Although AAK led the GOK from 2004 to 2007, the party did not win control of its first municipalities until 2007 when it claimed the western municipalities of Decan, Peja and Gjakova, where party leader Ramush Haradinaj's strong clan ties make him a local power broker. These victories were the only bright spot for the party which otherwise took an electoral drubbing from voters who were turned off by AAK's corruption and lack of accomplishment during its tenure in government. In the five post-1999 elections in Kosovo, AAK has never garnered more than 62,000 votes, reaching this high point in the 2002 municipal elections when it received 8.7% of total votes cast. In the 2004 (general) and 2007 (municipal and general) elections, AAK's vote tally decreased to 58,000 and 54,000 total votes respectively. (Note: Though AAK's support has declined in absolute terms over the years, its share of the votes cast in 2007 was 9.6%, up from 2002, mainly because a large number of disillusioned LDK voters chose not to vote in 2007, thereby depressing turnout. End Note) In order to reverse its declining political fortunes, AAK has embarked over the past year on an ambitious campaign to remake itself and appeal to a larger swath of Kosovo's electorate. REMAKING THE LEADERSHIP -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Haradinaj -- who in 2004 left the government and AAK in the hands of lackluster and rapacious underlings while he was tried for war crimes in The Hague -- arguably had no choice but to dramatically change AAK from the top down to make it competitive. Naming Blerim Shala, one of Kosovo's leading public intellectuals and a former newspaper editor, as the party's First Vice President and de facto number two was part of the party's makeover. Shala has become the party's chief ideologue and emerged as its second face after Haradinaj. This is apparent from AAK's campaign posters, which feature Haradinaj and Shala standing side by side. The posters are not just a nod to Shala's high public standing, but a noticeable anomaly given that party leaders traditionally only share campaign posters with municipal candidates in individual races. The AAK's new General Secretary and election campaign manager, Burim Ramadani, a long-time associate of Shala's, joined the party less than a year ago. Of the 32 municipalities that AAK is contesting, 18 of its candidates are, like Shala and Ramadani, recent converts to the party. NEW FACES, LOCAL RACES -------------- ¶4. (SBU) As part of its strategy to "break out of the west," the AAK has targeted several municipalities, including Suhareka/Suva Reka, a Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) stronghold located in central Kosovo. The AAK's mayoral candidate, Blerim Kuci, is a former KLA commander in Suhareka/Suva Reka and previously served as Minister of Internal Affairs. He was also a senior Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) official until he resigned as party CEO last year in a PRISTINA 00000477 002.2 OF 003 leadership dispute. Kuci, a veteran political organizer with a seasoned politician's grasp of local issues, told us that his candidacy was a test of AAK's new electoral strategy. AAK claims that it has a large party structure in Suhareka/Suva Reka, and Kuci's campaign headquarters is staffed to capacity with young volunteers, not the more grizzled veterans who usually haunt party branch offices in Kosovo. ¶5. (SBU) Kuci's name recognition and dynamic election team pose a challenge for the LDK, and an LDK campaign official told us recently that his party expects Kuci to poll ahead of the LDK incumbent mayor on election day and force a two-man run-off in December in a contest that LDK expects to win in the end. Prime Minister Thaci's Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) is also pouring significant amounts of resources into the Suhareka/Suva Reka contest. Thaci has made a dozen campaign trips on behalf of his party's candidate, Rame Vata, and promised voters there a plethora of infrastructure projects if PDK wins in the municipality. Though PDK would like to win, it also wants keep AAK from spreading beyond its western Kosovo base and staking a claim as a national party. GUNS AND RESUMES -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The prerequisites for a career in Kosovo politics have been carrying a gun in the 1990's for the KLA or enduring significant prison time at the hands of Belgrade. AAK is trying a twist on this tactic. Though many of its new faces are war veterans, they have also distinguished themselves professionally over the last decade. Collectively they hope these new faces with longer resumes will help the party project a much-needed air of competence and dynamism. Enver Rrustemi and Tahir Caka, new arrivals to AAK and prominent KLA veterans, are running as AAK mayoral candidates in Viti/Vitina and Kacanik, respectively. Both can claim high-level administrative experience, Rrustemi as former chief of the Kosovo Police Inspectorate and Caka as the former PDK mayor of Kacanik. Another new face, Muharrem Shabani is a former Kosovo Assembly member under the Yugoslav regime who earned his nationalist credentials in 1990 when he voted in favor of the Kosovo Constitutional Declaration. He is also an LDK turncoat. Shabani is running for mayor of Vushtrri/Vucitrn, a position he once held, and he offers AAK a credible, if difficult, shot at wresting the mayor's chair there from PDK. ¶7. (SBU) Bislim Zyrapi, AAK's candidate in PDK-ruled Prizren, is a well-regarded KLA veteran and former head of the GOK's emergency services department. In a recent meeting Zyrapi told us that he only joined AAK five months ago. He said he was attracted to AAK by its "thorough changes," saying that the party had become more professional and intellectual and had opened itself up to new blood untouched by previous corruption. Zyrapi, who has never held elective office before, has a solid command of local issues and described to us a detailed campaign platform that addresses local challenges to attract foreign investment, create jobs and develop tourism while protecting Prizren's cultural patrimony. Zyrapi's candidacy is another conspicuous example of AAK's efforts to reach outside of its own poorly performing ranks and its western base to reinvigorate itself nationally with new and credible local leaders. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Haradinaj calculates that by giving prominent positions in AAK to new and experienced faces from outside the party, he can offer a compelling choice to Kosovo voters who have soured on the unattractive choice between the PDK, with its growing reputation for graft and centralization of power, or an LDK that is widely perceived as rudderless and moribund since the death of Ibrahim Rugova. Haradinaj is no poster boy for public integrity and AAK's electoral strategy is a gamble for both the party and Haradinaj personally. However, it reflects the personality of its two top officials: the intellectual firepower and astute analysis of Shala and the clever tactical instincts of Haradinaj. As such it is a PRISTINA 00000477 003.2 OF 003 bold attempt to break what many believe is the increasingly stale mold of post-1999 Kosovo politics. Whether the time is yet ripe for such a change is anyone's guess, but AAK most likely views this campaign as the test bid for its national strategy for the general elections in 2011. END COMMENT DELL