KOSOVO: CAMPAIGN OPENS FOR NOVEMBER 15 MUNICIPAL

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SUBJECT: KOSOVO: CAMPAIGN OPENS FOR NOVEMBER 15 MUNICIPAL
ELECTIONS

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The official campaign period for Kosovo November
15 municipal elections kicked off on October 15. The elections, the
first since independence and the first managed by domestic
institutions, mark an important milestone in Kosovo's democratic
growth. Kosovo Albanian and Serb parties will contest 36
municipalities, including three new Ahtisaari-mandated Serb-majority
municipalities. (Note: We will report on Kosovo Serb and
decentralization developments septel. End Note) There is a general
consensus that Kosovo's Central Election Commission (CEC) has, thus
far, managed the technical aspects of the election well. We are
providing political and financial support to the CEC, and we have
stressed to political leaders that their conduct during the campaign
will play a critical role in shaping the international and domestic
assessment of the election. The Kosovo Albanian governing and
opposition parties all have high hopes for their electoral
prospects, but each will confront growing apathy among voters
increasingly frustrated with the political class's inability to
resolve issues, such as employment, that impact their day-to-day
lives. END SUMMARY.

MUNICIPAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN OPENS
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2. (SBU) The official campaign season for Kosovo's November 15
municipal elections kicked off on October 15. Seventy-four
political parties and entities are competing in the upcoming
elections -- more than 20 of them ethnic Serb -- for mayoralties and
municipal assembly seats in 36 municipalities. These include the
existing thirty-three municipalities, an expanded Novo Brdo, and
three additional Ahtisaari-mandated Serb-majority municipalities:
Gracanica, Klokot, Ranilug. The two additional Ahtisaari-mandated
Serb-majority municipalities -- Mitrovica North and Partesh -- will
hold elections in Spring 2010. Voters will elect mayors directly,
but municipal council seats will be assigned on a proportional
basis. Voters will have the option of casting their assembly ballot
for either a party list or a specific candidate.

TRAINING WHEELS OFF: KOSOVO RUNS ITS OWN ELECTIONS
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3. (SBU) The November 15 municipal elections will be the first in an
independent Kosovo and the first administered solely by Kosovo's
Central Elections Commission (CEC). CEC officials see the elections
as an opportunity to demonstrate their institution's capacity and
Kosovo's democratic maturity. Nonetheless, the CEC has recognized
its own limitations and reached out to the international community
for technical support. The U.S. is providing $3.3 million in
assistance to help the CEC administer its Results and Counting
Center, introduce an SMS system to more quickly relay election
results, finance the CEC's public information campaign, and help
train local journalists and NGOs on election observation. There is
general consensus that, thus far, the CEC has ably managed the
technical aspects of the election, an observation echoed by a
National Democratic Institute (NDI) pre-election assessment released
on October 15.

LET THE CAMPAIGN BEGIN - SOME EARLY CHALLENGES
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4. (SBU) Though positive overall, the NDI report highlighted some
important challenges for the CEC. Voter lists are derived from the
Central Civil Registry and names have not been removed from the
registry when people die or leave the country. This has raised some
concerns about the possibility for fraud, something the Russian
Ambassador (almost gleefully) stressed in an October 12 Contact
Group meeting. The CEC plans a vigorous program against possible
fraud on election day to address the issue. Many observers also
believe that voter turnout will be an important measure of Kosovo's
democratic progress, but if the number of registered voters is
inaccurately inflated the percentage of voter turnout will be lower
than was actually the case. As a consequence, our interlocutors

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have emphasized the importance of measuring voter turnout in
absolute rather than percentage terms.


5. (SBU) In a test of CEC's patience and Kosovo's elections laws,
some of Kosovo's most prominent parties, including the senior
governing coalition partner the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and
the opposition Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK),began their
campaigns several weeks prior to the official October 15 start date.
PDK and AAK plastered Pristina -- Kosovo's capital and most
populous city -- with campaign billboards and posters. PDK's junior
ruling coalition partner the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) and
ethnic Albanian businessman Behgjet Pacolli's Alliance for a New
Kosovo (AKR) cried foul and formally submitted complaints to the
CEC's Elections Complaints and Appeals Commission (ECAC). Whatever
the ECAC decides, the actions of PDK and AAK were, as NDI noted,
seen by many as "inconsistent with spirit of fair play."

PDK WORKS TO MAINTAIN HOLDINGS, LDK FIGHTS TO SURVIVE
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6. (SBU) Governing coalition partners PDK and LDK are not running in
pre-election coalition in the upcoming contest, and are in fact
dueling for mayoral seats and control of municipal assemblies
throughout Kosovo. PDK, which won pluralities in 27 municipal
assemblies and 16 mayoral slots in the 2007 elections -- almost
entirely at LDK's expense -- is seeking to hold, if not expand, its
municipal powerbase. The once formidable LDK suffered huge
municipal losses in 2007, winning only five assemblies and seven
mayoral positions. LDK leaders are continuing to try to
reinvigorate and reorganize the party, and hope that these municipal
elections will provide the party a much-needed electoral shot in the
arm. Nonetheless, internal fissures, including unhappiness among
some with President Sejdiu's leadership, continue to hobble the
party. LDK may have to console itself with holding its ground.


AAK: VORACIOUS FOR POWER
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7. (SBU) AAK, Kosovo's small but prominent opposition party led by
former Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, has been singularly focused
on returning to power. A good showing on November 15 is seen as a
potential launching pad by Haradinaj and the party for national
elections, currently expected in 2011. AAK currently has three
mayors and controls three municipal assemblies: Peja/Pec,
Decan/Decane, and Gjakove/Djakovica. All are in western Kosovo.
AAK hopes to solidify its western power base by picking up the
vulnerable LDK-held municipality of Istog/Istok. The party also
wants to demonstrate that it is more than a regional phenomenon by
picking up mayoralties and municipal assembly seats elsewhere in the
country. By all accounts, AAK is motivated and has organized local
party leaders and its constituency toward this goal.

AKR and LDD SEEK TO GAIN LOCAL PRESENCE
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8. (SBU) The Democratic League of Dardania (LDD) and the Alliance of
a New Kosovo (AKR) best known for their enigmatic leaders, Nexhat
Daci and Behgjet Pacolli, leveraged their political celebrity to
noteworthy success in Kosovo's Assembly elections in 2007, gaining
over 20 seats altogether, but failed to win any municipal assemblies
or mayoralties in that year's local elections. In the upcoming
contest, the parties are loosely coordinating local efforts to gain
seats in municipal assemblies. AKR continues to focus on
national-level issues like foreign investment and gaining
recognitions of Kosovo's independence, but the party is making
modest efforts throughout Kosovo, particularly in Gjakove/
Djakovica, where it is running a first-time candidate well-known in
Kosovo's business community. LDD's campaign is less organized --
riddled by recent party defections -- but in a surprise move, LDD is
the only ethnic Albanian political entity that registered for both
the assembly and mayoral races in the new ethnic-Serb majority
Gracanica municipality.

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BATTLING VOTER APATHY
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9. (SBU) Whatever their electoral aspirations, all Kosovo's
political parties confront the growing problem of voter apathy.
Turnout, measured in absolute terms, has been declining steadily
over the decade. The post-independence euphoria among Kosovo
Albanians is also waning, and the voters we talk to express
frustration with the political class's inability to make progress on
issues of day-to-day concern to them, such as employment and energy.
Political parties have been slow to develop issue-based campaigns
that address voter concerns. Instead, their day-to-day discourse
often centers on status issues, something we are encouraging them to
change. That said, thus far, the major Kosovo Albanian parties have
refrained from turning the municipal elections into a chest thumping
contest over which party is the most patriotic.

COMMENT
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10. (SBU) Kosovo's November 15 municipal elections are rightly seen
as an important test in the country's democratic development.
Whatever the outcome, we have stressed privately to the leaders of
the country's major political parties that their conduct during the
campaign will impact perceptions of Kosovo within the international
community. On October 14, the Ambassador participated in a signing
ceremony with party leaders of a campaign "code of conduct" to
underscore the point publicly. We have also offered steadfast
political and technical support to the CEC in order to help it
resist political pressure, such as the August row over its sound
decision against placing cameras in polling places. Finally, we are
funding an international election monitoring effort and plan to send
our own teams into the field in order to reinforce confidence in the
electoral process among voters.

DELL