KOSOVO: ASSESSING LIKELY ELECTION PARTICIPATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRISTINA 000379

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SUBJECT: KOSOVO: ASSESSING LIKELY ELECTION PARTICIPATION

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Debate among stakeholders continues on
modalities for and risks associated with holding elections on
November 15 in the new Serb-majority municipalities formed through
Ahtisaari-mandated decentralization, but we are edging towards a
solution along U.S.-shaped lines: elections in at least one or two
new, Serb-majority municipalities (possibly more),but not putting
decentralization at risk by staging failed elections where the
outcome is predictable and negative. After reviewing new, more
reliable polling data now available to us and considering other
factors, our assessment is that Kllokot and Ranilug offer the
greatest likelihood for successful elections, where Serb voters will
both participate in and win local office. Slightly more risky, but
worth looking at further, are Partesh and "New" Novo Brdo.
Gracanica and North Mitrovica, the most significant Serb settlements
poised to become new municipalities, are not yet ready to hold
elections. Our Quint partners and the ICO are pressing us on both
Gracanica, and to a lesser extent, North Mitrovica, but we believe
that the goal is a successful outcome to the elections rather than
the process for its own sake. Therefore, we have counseled against
moving forward with municipalities where the risk of failure is
unacceptably high, especially with regard to Gracanica. We can ill
afford outcomes that will discredit decentralization, the Ahtisaari
Plan's central tenet for Serb integration in a stable and democratic
Kosovo.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY CONT: With the above in mind, the Ambassador has
suggested to our Quint partners and proposed to PM Thaci and
President Sejdiu that November elections in Kllokot and Ranilug,
coupled with a plan to create conditions for elections in the others
by next spring, offers the best way forward. The UK Ambassador here
has told us privately that this approach could satisfy his
government's wish that decentralization be demonstrably moving
forward, but he continues to argue for 38 during Quint exchanges.
France is clearly okay with 38-minus; Germany and Italy appear to
follow this line but still want to see Gracanica included. Events
of the last week have probably stifled enthusiasm for trying to
include North Mitrovica at this time. Both Thaci and Sejdiu have
signaled that they could support elections in some new
municipalities provided there is confidence the Serbs will win, and
we avoid a situation that would annul an outcome which elects a
minority Albanian. Our recommendation is to position ourselves in
favor of 33-plus, the current municipalities along with Kllokot and
Ranilug, and if we can get greater clarity on several issues,
perhaps "New" Novo Brdo and Partesh. END SUMMARY

Ethnic Breakdown of Serb-Majority Municipalities
-------------- ---


3. (SBU) As debate continues locally on how many municipalities
should participate in the November 15 municipal elections -- the 33
existing municipalities or these municipalities plus some, or all
six, of the proposed new Serb-majority municipalities -- we are
assessing what may occur if the new municipalities were to
participate in the elections. The new Serb-majority municipalities
are Novo Brdo, North Mitrovica, Gracanica, Ranilug, Partesh, and
Kllokot. Demographic data in Kosovo are unreliable and coarse, but
using information gleaned from the International Civilian Office
(ICO) and OSCE, we can approximate the ethnic breakdowns in each of
the new municipalities (see Table 1) that should provide a starting
point for estimates of voting outcomes in the November municipal
elections.

Table 1: New Serb-Majority Municipalities
--------------

Municipality % Alb % Serb Pop.
-------------- -------------- -------------- --------------
Gracanica 11 89 18,600
Kllokot 26 74 4,500
North Mitro 10 90 20,000
New Novo Brdo 26 74 9,000
Partesh 0 100 5,200

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Ranilug 0 100 5,000


Kosovo Serb Opinions on Elections, Decentralization
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4. (SBU) Successful decentralization hinges both on building
functioning municipalities and Serbs winning elections in those new
municipalities. The presence of a Serb majority is no guarantee of
a Serb victory. Serb turnout is the key. Our greatest concern
remains that a small number of Albanian residents in each of the new
municipalities might be sufficient to elect Albanian candidates.
This is no theoretical threat. In the 2007 municipal elections,
Strpce municipality, which is roughly 66 per cent Serb, saw Albanian
parties capture over 99 per cent of all votes cast. The UN Special
Representative (SRSG) intervened and installed a Serb mayor and
ethnic Serb municipal assembly members. For reasons we have already
reported, we are skeptical of claims that some within the
international community are making about the prospects for
meaningful Serb turnout. We now have available to us more focused
polling for Kllokot and Grancanica that we believe provides a more
reliable basis for making turnout assessments. The results are
summarized below. (Note: The poll was conducted by USAID-implementer
the National Democratic Institute (NDI) in August. We have asked
NDI to expand the poll to include all the new Serb-majority
municipalities. End Note)

Kllokot: Some Good News
--------------


5. (SBU) The NDI poll shows that 25 percent of Serbs in Kllokot plan
on participating in the November municipal elections. When
respondents were asked if they would vote in the elections if
Kllokot became a new municipality, the likelihood of participation
jumped from 25 percent to 38 percent. While a quarter of Kllokot's
new municipal population will be Albanian, the poll suggests that
its Serb residents have embraced decentralization. Certainly,
elections in Kllokut will probably be a close race. Using our
polling numbers and population estimates from ICO, we can make a
rough approximation that 1265 Serbs will go to the polls in Kllokot
alongside 1125 Albanians. These numbers underscore that even with
relatively positive numbers on possible Serb turnout holding an
election is a risk, particularly if the Serb vote splits, but this
may be a risk worth taking. An additional reason for optimism is
that tangible, meaningful decentralization beyond merely
establishing a Municipal Preparation Team (MPT) is beginning to take
place in Kllokot. These two factors -- positive indicators on
turnout and progress on the ground -- are reasons for including
Kllokot in the pool of municipalities going to the polls.

Gracanica: Too Ambivalent and Too Important to Rush
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) Grancanica is one of the two most politically significant
of the new Serb-majority municipalities. [Note: The other is North
Mitrovica, and events over the last several days -- i.e., ongoing
tensions between Albanians and Serbs with occasional outbreaks of
violence -- make clear that it is nowhere near ready for elections.
End Note] Our NDI poll shows that only 14 percent of Serbs in
Gracanica intend to vote in November. Unlike Kllokot, this number
is constant; it does not improve if Gracanica became a new
municipality before election day. In addition, though an MPT has
been established in Gracanica, unlike in Kllokot, there has been
little municipal development program. No Serb party has a dominant
position in Gracanica; there are at least five Serb parties who
could participate in elections. They would likely split the Serb
vote. We expect Albanians, by comparison, to rally around the Prime
Minister's PDK party. This dynamic -- a small, divided Serb turnout
and a united Albanian populous -- creates the very real possibility
that Albanians could win power in most significant Serb enclave
south of the Ibar River.

Ranilug and Partesh: It's About More than Numbers
-------------- --------------

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7. (SBU) When Ranilug becomes a new municipality, virtually 100
percent of its residents will be Serbs. While we have no polling
data, the Deputy Mayor of Kamenica -- the mother municipality ceding
territory to Ranilug -- is a Serb from Ranilug who has long lobbied
us to kick start decentralization there and describes a community
that is ready to stand on its own and wants to participate in Kosovo
institutions. (NOTE: The ICO and Ministry for Local Government
Administration appointed Ranilug's Municipal Preparation Team on
August 28. END NOTE) With apparent buy-in from local Serb
leadership, enough Serbs may come to the polls to elect both a Serb
mayor and a Serb municipal assembly that takes office with a
reasonable decree of legitimacy. With no Albanians to swamp even
low Serb voter participation, there is an acceptable risk of
failure.


8. (SBU) Partesh has similar demographics to Ranilug, but it also
faces more significant challenges. As an undeveloped community
without any meaningful infrastructure, its MPT, once it starts
working, will confront more work than in other places in
establishing the basic structures necessary for creating a
functioning municipality. In the absence of any local Serb
leadership committed to advancing Partesh's development, the
settlement might benefit by waiting for extraordinary elections in
the spring, but we recommend keeping this option in play over the
next couple weeks as it may help us build agreement within the
Quint.

"New" Novo Brdo
--------------


9. (SBU) "New" Novo Brdo, builds on the existing Novo Brdo's
municipal structures and redraws its municipal borders to make an
Albanian municipality into a Serb municipality. The problem is that
no one is quite sure what "New" Novo Brdo's demography will be.
While ICO speculates that that "New" Novo Brdo will be 76-24,
Serb-Albanian, estimates about Serbs in the region have varied
significantly over the past several years. No one is sure.
Elections in "New" Novo Brdo may be a real possibility, but we need
to see reliable polling numbers prior to committing our support.
Given that Albanians in Novo Brdo will be moving from a majority to
a minority, we expect that "New" Novo Brdo will engender Albanian
resentment and motivate large turnout. This creates the possibility
for this new Serb-majority municipality to fall under Albanian rule.
However, ICO tells us that Serbs in Novo Brdo, who currently
coexist happily with an Albanian mayor, are unlikely to react
angrily should Albanians win significant control in the November
elections. We believe more facts are required to confirm this
hypothesis, but if ICO is right, holding elections in "New" Novo
Brdo may be possible, and once again, we should keep it in play for
now.

Belgrade: Another College Try
--------------


10. (SBU) Though some within the international community dismiss the
importance of signals coming from Belgrade, we continue to believe
that the surest way to motivate Serb turnout is a clear signal from
Belgrade that it supports decentralization and wants Kosovo Serbs to
vote on November 15. We are skeptical that Belgrade will provide
the clear signal we are looking for, but Quint partners,
particularly the UK, want to make another run at it. We support
making the effort, but in the wake of the GOK-EULEX flare up over
the police protocol, we advise against approaching another status
neutral organization (i.e., Council of Europe) about a statement
Belgrade would sign up to "outside the context of Ahtisaari"
supporting decentralization. The reaction from the GOK would likely
be neuralgic.

Recommendation
--------------


11. (SBU) Ambassador made clear during the August 28 Quint meeting
that we cannot support elections in 38 municipalities. North

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Mitrovica is off the table. If Belgrade were to give an unambiguous
signal that it is encouraging Serbs to participate in Kosovo's
municipal elections, then we could reexamine the possibility of
including Gracanica. We are, however, running out of time and need
to come to a consensus within the next two weeks. The Quint will
meet again on September 11 to review information and, we hope, agree
on a final position based on instructions from capitals.
(Regardless of the decision, Kosovo's Central Elections Commission
faces a critical benchmark on September 15 when it must certify
parties and candidates in each of the municipalities, something that
it cannot do until there is agreement on where elections will take
place.)


12. (SBU) At this stage, Kllokot and Ranilug appear to offer the
best opportunities for moving forward, and we believe that the
Kosovars will support this suggestion. Thaci told Ambassador on
August 26 that he was open to including one or perhaps two new
municipalities in the November elections, provided that we have
strong confidence that Serbs will run, vote and win. This openness,
however, also comes with a warning. Both Thaci and Local Government
Administration Minister Sadri Ferati have told us consistently for
weeks that this year Albanians will not step aside if they win in
Serb-majority municipalities. The Quint appears prepared to accept
this risk. The UK ambassador continues to advocate for elections in
all 38 municipalities within the Quint, but has suggested privately
that they might settle for less.


13. (SBU) Introducing elections in Kllokot and Ranilug should
address concerns among the Quint and the ICO that Serbs will lose
faith in decentralization without them and demonstrate that the GOK
and the international community are serious about the process. We
will continue to explore the viability of elections in "New" Novo
Brdo, Partesh, and to a lesser extent Gracanica. Our sina qua non
for Gracanica ought to be a direct and clear message of support from
Belgrade. Without that, an election in Gracanica will lead to a
train wreck, which could well derail the decentralization process
altogether. We should resist any temptation to include North
Mitrovica. It is not ready. Politically, this will also
necessitate balancing it with one or two new municipalities that
will also not participate in the elections so that it does not stand
out as an exception further underscoring the north-south divide.
Regardless of the final list, risks will remain, and we need to go
into this with our eyes wide open. Our goal should be to limit
these risks by a) holding elections only where the calculated risk
makes sense, and b) developing a plan for building the new
municipalities over the next 6 to 8 months in order to lay the
groundwork to elections next spring.

DELL