KOSOVO: RETURNS DOWN SHARPLY IN 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRISTINA 000018

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DRL, INL, PRM, EUR/ACE, EUR/SCE
NSC FOR HELGERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KV UNMIK PREF
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: RETURNS DOWN SHARPLY IN 2008

REF: 08 PRISTINA 530

Classified By: Ambassador Tina S. Kaidanow for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. According to UN High Commission for
Refugees (UNHCR) numbers, only 569 persons returned to Kosovo
in 2008, compared to 1815 returnees in 2007. This decline
can be attributed to many factors, chief among them Kosovo's
declaration of independence on February 17, 2008, which
appears to have discouraged displaced Kosovo Serbs in
particular and possibly other ethnicities from returning to
their former homes. Underperformance at the Kosovo Ministry
for Returns was another factor, along with the high-profile
arrest of a Kosovo Serb who was on a "go and see visit" with
other potential returnees. Relevant agencies, including
UNHCR, the UN Development Program (UNDP),and the Danish
Refugee Council (DRC),all report that despite the
challenges, many displaced Kosovo residents living in
neighboring countries remain interested in returning. UNHCR
also reports an increased interest in returns from the
Serbian government. Our opinion on the most effective way to
promote sustainable returns to Kosovo remains the same:
avoid high-priced projects (which have a poor track record)
and improve conditions on the ground for communities already
here, making them more attractive to potential returnees.
END SUMMARY.

Numbers Drop


2. (C) According to UNHCR statistics, 569 persons displaced
from Kosovo since the 1999 conflict returned in 2008,
compared with 1815 returnees in 2007. Of these, 155 were
Kosovo Serbs, 264 Roma, Ashkali, and Egyptians (RAE),33
Bosniaks, 85 Gorani, and 32 Albanians. The drop in Kosovo
Serb returns (151 in 2008 vs. 585 in 2007) was as sharp as
the drop in overall returnees. For political reasons, most
if not all public attention paid to returns in Kosovo is
directed at the issue of Kosovo Serbs. Although establishing
an accurate count of displaced Kosovo Serbs has been a
controversial and politically-charged issue since 1999, UNHCR
and UNDP among others estimate that between 70,000-80,000
Kosovo Serbs have departed since 1999, most of them
immediately after the 1999 conflict. (Note: Kosovo has not
conducted a census since 1991, and estimates of displaced
persons are rough at best. End Note.) A UNHCR report from
December 29, 2008, estimates that 18,527 displaced people
have returned to Kosovo since the 1999 conflict.

Contributing Factors: Independence


3. (C) Among our chief contacts in the area of returns and
among most Kosovo Serbs, there is a consensus that Kosovo's
declaration of independence in February 2008 and the
resulting political fallout discouraged this community and
reduced the number of returns. At meetings on December 15
and 18, UNHCR, UNDP, and DRC representatives all agreed that
independence was the chief factor reducing the number of
returns in 2008. Michael Possmayer, outgoing mission head at
DRC, told us on December 16 that Kosovo Serbs were now making
decisions on whether to return by factoring in Kosovo's new
status. Notwithstanding the Serbian government's continuing
efforts to deny the legality and effect of Kosovo's
independence, many Serb returnees, especially those going to
rural areas or Albanian-majority towns, know that they are
returning to an independent state and decide accordingly.

Jovanovic Case


4. (C) Another event affecting returns in 2008 was the March
12 arrest of Momcilo Jovanovic, a Kosovo Serb from Peja/Pec
municipality, who was apprehended during a "go and see visit"
to his home. Jovanovic was placed under home detention in
the Serb-majority village of Brestovik (Klina municipality)
for several months and is now believed to be back in Serbia.
The arrest came as a surprise and led DRC and UNHCR to
suspend "go and see" visits for several months afterwards.
Possmayer considers the case another key factor in driving
down the number of returns in 2008. (Note: Jovanovic was

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detained by UNMIK DOJ on the basis of war crimes indictment
that is apparently still being investigated; UNMIK DOJ head
Bob Dean, who will move over in February to be EULEX War
Crimes Prosecutor, informed us recently that EULEX will
eventually take up the case. End Note.)

MCR Woes


5. (C) Further complicating matters has been the
underperformance in 2008 of the Kosovo Ministry for
Communities and Returns (MCR). The replacement of Minister
of Returns Boban Stankovic by Alexander Rasic in October 2008
(see reftel) may help improve the MCR's performance in 2009,
but the ministry has little to show for its efforts over the
past year. Since Rasic took office, we and other
international partners, including UNDP, have helped advise
him to deal more effectively with MCR issues. Rasic has
concentrated on spending unspent funds from FY 2008 and
planning his FY 2009 budget, as well as correcting serious
problems with MCR returns projects begun in 2008. Former
Minister Stankovic's poor relationship with key donors
resulted in lengthy delays in starting construction of
returnee housing in the village of Laplje Selo (Pristina
municipality) and other locations. Rasic and his colleagues
in the Independent Liberal Party (SLS),which participates in
the Kosovo institutions and has two ministers in the current
government, have told us that improving conditions for Serb
communities already here may be a better way of promoting
returns in the long run than returning as many people as
possible in the short run.

Strong Will Remains


6. (C) While there is a consensus that independence has
decreased returns, there exists an equally strong belief
among our contacts that displaced Kosovo Serbs continue to
possess a strong will to return. UNHCR Kosovo mission head
Herrmann Sturwald told us on December 15 that UNHCR's contact
with displaced persons' associations in Serbia and elsewhere
revealed continuing significant interest in returns. On
December 18, UNDP official Kim Vetting agreed with UNHCR's
assessment and added that interest in RAE (Roma, Ashkali and
Egyptian) returns was also strong, and could become more of a
focus in the future. We discussed an upcoming RAE returns
project in Istog/Istok municipality, in which RAE from
refugee camps in Montenegro would be returned to a rebuilt
settlement in the spring of 2009.

Comment: Sustainability Key


7. (C) The list of factors working against returns to
Kosovo, particularly by Serbs, is both long and well-known.
Security worries, unemployment, property-related issues, and
other factors have been a problem since 1999. On top of
these, certain factors in 2008, ranging from independence to
problems at the MCR and the increased politicization of the
Kosovo Serbs' status by the Serbian government, have helped
contribute to the meager number of returnees in the past
year. It is too early to tell whether 2009 will be more
"normal" when it comes to returns. The longer-term impact of
Kosovo's independence on returns is not yet known. It has
been almost a decade since the summer of 1999, when the vast
majority of those still displaced departed Kosovo. While we
agree that there is still a strong desire to return among
many of the displaced, we should also note that this has been
the case almost as long as those displaced have been gone.
The overall number of returnees has been low, averaging
around 2,000 per year since 1999. We still believe that
individual returns, as opposed to larger organized projects,
have proven more sustainable and successful. We also agree
with Minister Rasic that improving conditions for existing
communities is becoming more critical in maintaining the
Kosovo Serb population, particularly south of the Ibar river.
We will continue to assist him, in coordination with our
international partners, in an effort to make 2009 a more
successful year in returns than the one which has just ended.
KAIDANOW