COMMUNIST PARTY LOOKS FOR GAINS FOLLOWING ZUMA WIN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000930

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL SF
SUBJECT: COMMUNIST PARTY LOOKS FOR GAINS FOLLOWING ZUMA WIN

PRETORIA 00000930 001.2 OF 002


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Summary
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1. (SBU) The South African Communist Party (SACP),whose
membership totals have slowly eroded in recent years, is
looking to rebound following African National Congress (ANC)
President JACOB Zuma's selection as the country's next ruler.
SACP members can belong both to the ANC and to the Congress
of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) so it is difficult to
identify SACP loyalties. Eighty SACP members served in the
National Assembly following the 2004 election and former
President Thabo Mbeki had SACP members within his Cabinet.
SACP expects its influence and access to grow under the ZUMA
administration, and some signs suggest that this will happen.
The question will be whether they will use that access and
influence successfully to pursue SACP policy goals. End
Summary.

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The South African Communist Party Today
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2. (SBU) The SACP has been a close ally of the ANC since the
mid-20th century and provides its ideological framework --
and some of its personnel -- to the ruling party. The SACP,
like the ANC, regards itself as the vanguard of the working
class and still espouses Marxist and Leninist theories to
underpin its vision of governance for South Africa. Even
though the party claims to have roughly 40,000 members, it is
more likely that the number stands closer to 12,000-15,000.
The party historically has been the intellectual home of
communist leaders such as Joe Slovo and Chris Hani. The
party claims its medium term vision is to secure "working
class hegemony" in the state and in all other centers of
power. The party over the longer term seeks to pave the way
for the establishment of a socialist state for "the permanent
socialist revolution." The SACP has not made any secret of
the fact that it wants to secure its visions by gaining
increased influence over the Zuma-led ANC.


3. (SBU) The desire for greater influence over ANC policies
emerges partly because of the marginalization the SACP faced
under Mbeki. Although a former SACP member himself, Mbeki
fell out with the SACP leadership during the late 1980s. He
left the organization (along with Zuma) during the fallout
and devoted his energy to negotiation with the apartheid
government and to building ANC structures in the country.
During his years as Deputy President and then President,
Mbeki and the SACP grew further apart and tension mounted as
Mbeki increasingly espoused a market-oriented economic
structure. Despite harsh public criticism from both SACP and
COSATU, Mbeki maintained his economic approach throughout his
presidency and his recall in September 2008. Whenever SACP
criticized Mbeki directly, accusing his policies of creating
a widening gulf between the rich and the poor, Mbeki made it
clear that the alliance "was led by the ANC and by ANC
policies." In 2005, when SACP threatened to break away from
the alliance and contest the 2009 election on its own -- no
longer as a partner with the ANC -- Mbeki lashed back and
warned that the SACP "does not tell the ANC how to run the
country." SACP does not have either the funding nor the
organization to break away from the alliance in the near
future. Some pundits say if SACP was to break from the
Qfuture. Some pundits say if SACP was to break from the
alliance, it would become as irrelevant as the Pan-African
Congress or the Azanian People's Organization.


4. (SBU) Following the 2004 national election, the SACP
seated about 80 members in the National Assembly under the
ANC's banner. The mere fact that 80 of the ANC's
parliamentary seats between 2004 and 2009 belonged to SACP
members demonstrated the degree to which the SACP is deeply
embedded within the ruling party and has the opportunity to
impact both executive and legislative decisions. Even with
the tension between Mbeki and SACP, the communist party had
several leaders in the former President's Cabinet. Cabinet
members from the SACP included Sydney Mufamadi, Charles
Nqakula, and Rob Davies. Despite this inclusion, SACP had no
members in the top six of the ANC's National Executive
Committee (NEC). This changed in 2007 when SACP member Gwede
Mantashe became the party's Secretary General. Mantashe and
other SACP leaders played key roles in ensuring that ZUMA
would be elected as ANC leader at the party's congress in

PRETORIA 00000930 002.2 OF 002


December 2007.

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SACP's Impact Under ZUMA ... So Far
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5. (SBU) Under the incoming ZUMA administration, key SACP
members are expected to be given Cabinet positions. SACP
Secretary General Blade Nzimande, who rose through the
communist party's ranks quickly even though he only joined in
the late 1980s, is one of the most prominent members expected
to receive an appointment. Such a job in Zuma's Cabinet
would make him accountable, as a "deployed cadre," to the
ANC. (Note: There are rumors that Nzimande may become the
Minister of Education or the Deputy Minister of Education.
End Note.) In recent months both SACP and COSATU already
have exerted their influences over the South African
Government. One example was the appointment of the Deputy
Finance Minister. Originally, President Kgalema Motlanthe
wanted to appoint NEC member Enoch Gongwana to the post, but
Nzimande blocked this move within the NEC and offered Finance
Portfolio Committee chair George Nene as the preferred
candidate. Nene ultimately won the position. Another
example is the recent appointment of the new Gauteng premier.
ANC provincial leader -- who had been Gauteng premier --
Paul Mashatile was expected to be retained as the premier.
However, the ANC replaced him with NEC member Nomvula
Mokonyane. Mokonyane sits on the SACP's Central Committee.
(Note: Mokoyane also was educated briefly at both the
Harvard University Business School and the University of
Pennsylvania's Business School, and has made some pro-West
statements in recent months. End Note.) SACP is hoping that
its influence grows, but it is still too soon to say how much
Zuma will rely on the party as opposed to his allies in
COSATU or the ANC's Youth League.

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Comment
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6. (SBU) The SACP under a ZUMA presidency now judges that it
is positioned to increase its influence and power within the
ANC. At the same time, members in the ANC, COSATU, and the
ANC Youth League feel ZUMA "owes" them as they view their
support as pivotal for Zuma's elevation to the ANC
presidency. ANC Youth League President Julius Malema stated
publicly that the alliance partners "put ZUMA into power" and
if he does not do what they want they can "remove" him like
they did to Mbeki in September 2008. It is likely that an
increased number of SACP members will hold more senior
positions in the ZUMA administration. The question will be
whether they will use that access and influence successfully
to pursue SACP policy goals.

LA LIME