IEC ANNOUNCES ELECTION RESULTS ON APRIL 25

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 000843

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL SF
SUBJECT: IEC ANNOUNCES ELECTION RESULTS ON APRIL 25

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR RAYMOND L. BROWN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).

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Summary
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1. (C) The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) was proud
of the efficiency of polling day activities, saying this was
"a long way from 1994." The IEC said campaigns were
conducted peacefully and there were no incidents of political
violence or intimidation on election day. The ruling African
National Congress (ANC) achieved its fourth consecutive
majority with 65.9 percent of the vote. The Democratic
Alliance (DA) remains the official opposition, winning 16.66
percent of the vote and 67 seats in parliament; while also
displacing the ANC in the Western Cape with 51.46 percent,
allowing them to rule with a majority. With 1,311,027 votes,
the Congress of the People (COPE) emerged as the third most
popular party, winning 7.42 percent of the vote, giving them
30 seats in Parliament (7.5%). COPE also became the official
opposition in three provinces. With the ANC garnering 264
parliamentary seats, the DA with 67, COPE with 30 and the
Inkatha Freedom Party (FP) with 18, the large number of
remaining small parties together only gained a total 21 seats
in Parliament. This gives a potentially unified opposition
136 votes compared to the 264 of the ANC. The poor showing
by small opposition parties may presage an era in which three
to four parties dominate South Africa's political landscape
in the future. End Summary.

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A Free and Fair Election
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2. (C) On Saturday April 25, Charge' d'affaires and PolCouns
attended the gala event hosted by South Africa's Independent
Electoral Commission at the Elections Results Operations
Center in Pretoria to announce the final tally of the April
22 National and Provincial Elections. Dr. Brigalia Bam and
her senior team of IEC Commissioners were joined on the dais
by outgoing President Kgalema Motlanthe, who is the ANC
Deputy President. (Note: Motlanthe was sworn in as South
Africa's third post-apartheid President after the forced
resignation of former President Thabo Mbeki in late September

2008. Motlanthe's unambitious and unremarkable seven month
tenure aimed primarily to act as a caretaker administration
whose job was to set the stage for a smooth transition to the
state presidency for ANC President JACOB Zuma. End Note.)
Thousands of interested people associated with the various
competing parties and a great many of the domestic and
international press were present to hear the formal
announcement of the election outcomes. JACOB Zuma, ANC
General Secretary Gwede Mantashe, ANC Youth League President
Julius Malema, ANC leader Winnie Mandela represented the
ruling party while Mosiuoa Lekota and Mvumelwano Dandala
represented the four month old ANC-breakaway opposition party
COPE. Senior representatives of the DA, the Independent
Democrats (ID),the United Democratic Movement (UDM) and the
IFP were not present.


3. (C) The IEC was very proud of the efficient manner in
which the fourth democratic polling day activities were
carried out by its 205,000 staff -- saying this event was a
long way from 1994. Reporting on the final election results
revealed a 77.3 percent turnout of registered voters -- one
of the highest participation rates of any democracy in the
Qof the highest participation rates of any democracy in the
world -- which was evidence of a commitment by South Africans
to build a democratic society. The IEC acknowledged the
peaceful conduct of the campaign and said there were no
incidents of political violence or intimidation. They
applauded the support of the security services and civil
society in this result. There were a few reports of
administrative problems marring the exercise (i.e., long
lines for voters in some locations as new rules allowing
registered voters to cast their ballots at any polling
station in the country resulted in some polling stations
having insufficient ballot papers, etc.). There was also one
case of alleged election fraud where a Presiding Officer at a
polling station in Kwa-Zulu Natal was arrested in possession
of a bogus ballot box with over sixty pre-marked ballots in
favor of the IFP. Dr. Bam noted that only 1.3 percent of the
ballots were spoiled and not counted among the total. No
other obstacles or impediments denied the IEC the pride of

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declaring this election "free and fair," classed the process
among "the best in the world," and called it a genuine
reflection of "the will of the voters." The IEC, looking
forward, is now preparing to implement the upcoming May 11
by-elections, the 2011 municipal elections and the 2014
national and provincial election.

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ANC to Lead Government, Again
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4. (C) The ruling ANC, based on its overwhelming support
among the majority of black voters achieved its fourth
consecutive commanding victory, allowing it to continue its
uninterrupted control of government. Receiving 11,650,748
votes, the ANC received a majority of 65.9 percent of the
vote -- a hair short of a two-thirds majority.
Comparatively, the ANC lost a significant margin of its
support in 2009 compared with 2004 (69%) and 1999 (68%).
This result, however, grants the ANC 264 seats in the next
parliament (66%). With this majority, the ANC will determine
the parliament's decision on the new president -- the
controversial ZUMA -- on May 6. With an inauguration
scheduled for May 9, it is a foregone conclusion that the
Zuma administration will rule South Africa for the next five
years. (Note: ZUMA has said that he intends to serve only
one term as president, though the constitution allows him two
five-year terms as president. End Note.)

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Democratic Alliance Takes Western Cape
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5. (C) Helen Zille's Democratic Alliance, with its "Stop
Zuma" campaign, maintained its status as the official
opposition at the national level, and gained greater voter
support than in any previous election since 1994. With a
total of 2,945,829 votes, the DA won 16.66 percent of the
national vote and 67 seats in parliament (16.75%). More
importantly, the DA has displaced the ANC in the Western
Cape, building on its 2004-2009 leadership of the ruling
coalition in Cape Town. In the Western Cape, the DA
attracted 1,012,568 votes, or 51.46 percent of the total,
allowing it to rule by majority without the challenges of
leading a coalition of opposition parties. The 2004 vote saw
the first time the ANC lost control of a major municipality
(Cape Town) and in 2009, the ANC lost control of a province
for the first time. However, in three provinces, DA lost is
status as the official opposition to the new COPE party.

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COPE Surprises, Yet Disappoints
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6. (C) The forced removal of Thabo Mbeki as President in
September 2008 resulted in the resignation from the ANC of
some of his supporters who formed a new party in December
2008 - COPE. Early in its existence, local pundits were
intrigued by the emergence of an opposition party that had
the potential to draw support from the rank and file of the
ANC. In the context on ongoing corruption charges against
Zuma and allegations of widespread corruption within the ANC,
COPE was seen by some as a party that might displace the ANC.
These high hopes were dashed as the campaign proceeded and
COPE was revealed as an under-resourced party with its own
internal leadership squabbles. Nevertheless, COPE emerged as
the third most popular party on the national level, and the
Qthe third most popular party on the national level, and the
official opposition in three provinces -- the Eastern Cape
(13.67 %),Limpopo (7.53%),and the Northern Cape (16.67%).
With 1,311,027 votes, COPE won 7.42 percent of the national
vote, affording them 30 seats in Parliament (7.5%).

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Small Parties Fail to Show
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7. (C) A large number of smaller parties, some of whom
existed only as a result of the ANC creation of a "floor
crossing" policy, failed to attract enough voter support to
earn seats in the national parliament. Some of these parties
have a laudable history and represent slivers of
constituencies across class, ethnic and racial lines. Only
the ANC, DA, COPE and IFP gained more than one percent of the
total national vote. Among those who received enough votes

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to earn seats in parliament include: the African Christian
Democratic Party with 0.81 % of the vote and 3 seats, the
African People's Convention with 0.20 % and 1 seat, Azanian
People's Organization with 0.22% and 1 seat, ID with 0.92 %
and 4 seats, Minority Front with 0.25% and 1 seat,
Pan-African Congress with 0.27% and 1 seat, United Christian
Democratic Party with 0.37% and 2 seats, UDM with 0.85% and 4
seats, the FF with 0.83% and 4 seats. With the ANC
garnering 264 seats, the DA with 67, COPE with 30 and the IFP
with 18, the remaining small party representation in
Parliament totals 21 seats. This gives a unified opposition
the potential of 136 notes compared to the 264 of the ANC.
There is debate underway regarding how the smaller marginal
parties should proceed. The range of debate provides
suggestions from them joining other opposition parties as a
parliamentary check on the power of the ANC, to voting
themselves out of existence and letting more substantial
opposition parties absorb their constituencies.

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Comment: No Good Deed Goes Unpunished
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8. (C) South Africans are justifiably proud of the
administration of the 2009 election process. The IEC
deserves kudos for its professional and unafraid management
and commitment to doing a good job for all South Africans.
The poor showing by small opposition parties may presage an
era in which three to four parties dominate South Africa's
political landscape in the future. But the nature of
politics is such that the IEC, even flush with victory,
continued to be the target for political paranoia and party
self-interest. For example, the ANC has criticized Dr. Bam
publicly for being present at the polling station in which
Thabo Mbeki cast his ballot. (Note: Many ZUMA supporters
believe that Mbeki is the grey eminence behind the emergence
of COPE - a suspicion that was only reinforced by COPE
members waving a flag with Mbeki's image on it at their
victory celebration at party headquarters. End Note.) ANC
critics suggested that Dr. Bam should not have been present
when Mbeki voted, and she definitely should not have shaken
and held his hand. Dr. Bam's phrasing in announcing the
results of the election also brought criticism from Zuma's
supporters in the ANC. In announcing the winner, Dr. Bam
congratulated the leader of the winning party -- without
saying "Zuma" and the "ANC." This terse formulation led some
Zuma supporters to suspect that Dr. Bam is in their minds the
worst kind of political creature in South Africa -- a secret
supporter of Mbeki and COPE. End Comment.
LA LIME