ZUMA CONTINUES HARD PRESS FOR AFRIKANER SUPPORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000666

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL SF
SUBJECT: ZUMA CONTINUES HARD PRESS FOR AFRIKANER SUPPORT

PRETORIA 00000666 001.2 OF 002


--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) One of the more interesting trends to emerge during
this election season is the intense focus by JACOB ZUMA and
the African National Congress (ANC) in lobbying the Afrikaner
vote ahead of the election. Many pundits and political
analysts have speculated that the Afrikaner vote would go to
a mix of the Congress of the People (COPE),Democratic
Alliance (DA),or the Freedom Front Plus (FF ). These
prognostications, however, have not stopped the ANC from
trying to win Afrikaner support. ZUMA last week spoke to two
separate Afrikaner business forums, ANC Youth League
President Julius Malema visited the Afrikaner community of
Orania, and there is speculation that the ANC may be close to
forming a post-election alliance with the FF . End Summary.

--------------
Zuma Seeks Afrikaner Vote
--------------


2. (SBU) ZUMA during the week of March 23 spoke at two
gatherings in Pretoria: one with the Afrikaner trade union
organization, Solidarity, and another with the Afriforum.
During the meeting with Afriforum -- an organization
including the Afrikaans Language and Culture Movement, the
Afrikanerbond, AgriSA, the Dutch Reformed Church,
Rapportryers, and the Voortrekkers -- ZUMA spoke about ways
in which the ANC can do better in addressing crime, health,
and education. On April 1, ZUMA spoke to a second Afriforum
meeting in Johannesburg. ZUMA noted at the meeting that "of
all the white groups that are in South Africa, it is only the
Afrikaners that are truly South Africans in the true sense of
the word." (Note: The DA issued a statement noting how
offensive such a remark is to South Africans of British
heritage. Zuma,s statement also tempts the reaction to many
other European colonials, such as the Poles and other Eastern
Europeans and the Italians and other Southern Europeans who
have had a presence in South Africa since the nineteenth
century. End Note.) ANC Treasurer, and one of the most
prominent Afrikaans-speaking ANC leaders, Matthews Phosa
publicly implored Afrikaners not to leave the country. He
spoke to the gathering of the Afrikaner community at Zuma's
request and said, "South Africa needs you." Phosa also
called on Afrikaners present at the meeting "to give those
who left (the country) good reason to come back." The ANC
admitted making mistakes in governing, but pledged to do
better.


3. (SBU) Zuma's remarks to Afrikaner interest groups comes
at the same time that ANC Youth League President Julius
Malema made a visit to the Afrikaner enclave of Orania in
Northern Cape. Orania leaders invited Malema to visit the
enclave because they believe the ANC will be sympathetic to
their push for an independent homeland. Orania Beweging
Carel Boshoff told reporters this week that he visited ZUMA
at his Johannesburg home in January and had a "very
constructive meeting." ZUMA reportedly told the FF that he
wanted to visit Orania before the election. Malema described
the meeting as very helpful and urged Afrikaners to continue
playing a vital role in South Africa.


4. (SBU) University of South Africa professor Dirk Kotze on
March 27 told Poloff that the ANC is pushing for Afrikaner
votes because it wants to form an alliance with the FF after
the national election on April 22. Kotze, who is extremely
Qthe national election on April 22. Kotze, who is extremely
close to FF President Pieter Mulder, said the largely
Afrikaner party wants to form an alliance with the ANC. He
said that Mulder would join the ruling party in a coalition
"right now if he thought he could get away with it."
According to Kotze, Mulder is worried that if he forms a
partnership with the ANC now, FF will lose votes to the DA.
Kotze said, "Mulder is very aware of what could happen to his
party." Kotze also noted that the ANC has as much of a
chance of winning Afrikaner support as does COPE or the DA.

--------------
Comment
--------------


5. (SBU) The ANC's actions and Zuma's statements mark what
for the ruling party is a brilliant tactic ahead of the
election this month. If the ANC's two-thirds majority in

PRETORIA 00000666 002.2 OF 002


Parliament is in peril, forming a strategic alliance with the
FF would help push the ruling party higher in terms of
representation -- especially at the provincial level.
Critics of this potential alliance suggest that there may
something cynical and sinister to this strange marriage of
bedfellows, but others recall that not long ago the former
apartheid National Party (the NATs) joined the ANC, pushing
their majority to over 70 percent, and continue to the
present working with them in Parliament. The FF earned less
than .7 percent of the vote in 2004 (4 seats),but could help
the ANC if other parties form coalitions or take seats in the
legislature away from the ruling party. While there are few
signs of Afrikaners voting for the ANC or strongly supporting
the party, there also are few signs that this segment of the
South African population is prepared to vote for anyone other
than the FF .
LA LIME