LOCAL PERSPECTIVES ON POLITICAL PARTY LISTS AHEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 PRETORIA 000665

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL SF
SUBJECT: LOCAL PERSPECTIVES ON POLITICAL PARTY LISTS AHEAD
OF THE APRIL 22 ELECTION

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR RAYMOND L. BROWN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).

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Summary
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1. (C) Poloff worked with Political Section officers to gain
their perspectives and insights into South Africa's main
political parties ahead of the April 22 national election.
Officers provided thoughts about the parties' candidate lists
and how they may help or hinder their electoral chances. The
structure of the responses varies by party because multiple
authors completed the analysis. End Summary.

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Perspective from Durban: The Inkatha Freedom Party
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2. (C) Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi tops the Inkatha Freedom
Party's (IFP) list, followed by almost all of his trusted
confidantes. The IFP list is made up mostly of party
stalwarts and people who have served in Parliament since

1994. There is a strong Zulu dominance in the list, and most
of the people on the list hail from KwaZulu Natal. Secretary
General Musa Zondi is high on the list; he and Buthelezi have
led the party in Parliament since 1994. It is no surprise
that the IFP list does not seek to groom the next generation
of leaders and candidates for Parliament, but recycles old
hands into new positions. The surprise name is that of
Buthelezi,s long-time Italian adviser Mario Ambrosini.
Ambrosini has never participated in any formal IFP
structures, and this is seen as a reward for his loyalty and
advice to Buthelezi. Another interesting addition to the IFP
national list is that of Professor Themba Msimang, the IFP
Deputy Secretary-General. He is seen as the enforcer of
discipline in the party as he chairs the powerful political
oversight committee responsible for deploying party members
to structures of government. Msimang has never been a member
of Parliament despite being one of the senior leaders of the
IFP. Surprisingly, compared to the current members of
Parliament, the 2009 list has a limited number of Indians and
whites. The list also features some other elements:

-- There is a balance between old and new members. The list
is made up mostly of old parliamentarians, but there are a
few new members including Msimang, Irvin Barnes, and Stanley
Dladla. Most interesting about this composition is that
Buthelezi complained bitterly about deadwood in the IFP at
their last national conference. He vowed that some older
members would not be returned to Parliament. Members who
feature in the list but were identified by the IFP Youth
Brigade as the deadwood include Koos van der Merve, Velaphi
Ndlovu, Ben Skosana, Inka Mars, and Lionel Mtshali. More
than half of the list is made up of current members of
national and provincial parliaments.

-- The IFP's racial mix on the list is illuminating about the
party's future. There is a substantial number of whites,
Indians, and coloureds. However, most of these people are
long serving members of the IFP and are not new. Koos van
der Merve, Inka Mars, Susan Vos, and Peter Smith are some of
the whites who top the IFP list. Narend Singh is the only
senior IFP leader of Indian origin who is placed high on the
list. The list also features prominent coloureds like Eric
Qlist. The list also features prominent coloureds like Eric
Lucas, even if they do not return to Parliament.

-- There is poor representation of young people in the IFP
list, which could be interpreted as an IFP failure to
modernize. Only three leaders of the IFP Youth Brigade are
on the national and provincial list -- Pat Ntanzi, Irvine
Barnes, and Thulasizwe Buthelezi.

-- Meanwhile, the provincial list is topped by the IFP
National Chairperson Zane Magwaza Msibi who is also the
party,s premier candidate. It is the first time the IFP has
nominated a woman candidate for premiership. Msibi,s
nomination supports the view that she is tipped to take over
from Buthelezi and lead the party. Former Premier Lionel
Msthali is, surprisingly, number two on the list despite his
unpopularity in the party. Many IFP leaders and supporters
blame him for losing the province to the ANC in 2004.
However, he is a close confidante of Buthelezi and this is

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believed to have helped him secure a top position on the
list. More than half of the list is made up of current
members of the provincial legislature for the IFP.

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Perspective from Cape Town: The Democratic Alliance
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3. (C) The Democratic Alliance (DA) party list is slightly
different compared to other parties in that they do not
publish a national list, but rather regional and provincial
lists. The DA then selects MPs based on its provincial lists
of parliamentary candidates. The number of constituencies
the DA wins in each province will determine how many members
of its provincial and regional lists become members of
parliament. The reasoning behind this is to avoid persons
who do not live in a region being granted seats in that
region. The DA maintains that their system encourages
elected officials to work harder for their region as they
will be held accountable by their neighbors, friends, and
community at large; they are not in a position to "go home"
to another province but are forced to stay in their area and
deal with the problems there.


4. (C) There are approximately 25 DA MPs and officials who
will not be returning after the election. Some, such as Joe
Seremane, have reached retirement age. Others are leaving
politics, as is the case with Sandra Botha, Sheila Camerer,
Tony Leon, and Douglas Gibson. Two more left to join
Congress of the People (COPE). Heading the provincial list
for the Western Cape is party leader Helen Zille (on the list
she uses her maiden name of Maree). With the departure of
the "old guard," it is expected that the DA will see many new
members in both the provincial and national government, but
due to the way their lists are structured, it is impossible
to determine who will go to Parliament at this stage.


5. (C) Although the DA does not automatically include
members of its youth league on its lists, it does run a Young
Leaders Program and a number of the program participants are
included on the lists (Lindiwe Mazibuko is one such
participant and is number three on the Kwa-Zulu Natal
Regional list; it is expected that she will be one of the new
MPs in Parliament). The DA does not track statistics
relating to the racial grouping of its candidates, although
there is a general consensus that there has been in increase
in black candidates since the 2004 national election; there
is also agreement that there are more women candidates than
in 2004.

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Perspective from Cape Town: The Independent Democrats
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6. (C) The top ten candidates on the national list for the
Independent Democrats (ID) includes Patricia De Lille, Haniff
Hoosen, Ari Seirlis, Joe McGluwa, Khosi Mncedane, Agnes
Tsamai, Steven Otter, Brett Herron, Aubrey Tshalata, and
Xanthea Limberg. Most notably absent from the Independent
Democrats list are Avril Harding and Simon Grindrod, both of
whom left the ID to join COPE. Meanwhile, Cecil Burges
crossed to the African National Congress (ANC). Harding was
the former Secretary-General and Chief Whip of the party
while Grindrod is the former National Deputy Leader of the
Qwhile Grindrod is the former National Deputy Leader of the
ID, former leader of its City of Cape Town caucus, and PR
member of the Cape Town City Council. It is not likely that
the defection of Grinrod, Harding, and Burges will affect the
ID any more negatively than if they had stayed with the
party. The party itself is still relatively new and, as
such, neither Grinrod, Harding, nor Burges have built up a
personal following which would leave the party if they left.
The top three candidates each have intriguing backgrounds:

-- Patricia de Lille, the president of the ID, has been
active in politics for a quarter of a century. She is known
for her role as a trade unionist in the struggle and as the
initial whistle-blower on the infamous arms-deal scandal that
still plagues the South African Government. She became an MP
in 1994 and went on to chair the parliamentary committee on
transport until 1999. In March 2003, she formed the
Independent Democrats, which won national and provincial
seats in the 2004 elections.


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-- Haniff Hoosen, the ID's Secretary-General and an MP, hails
from Durban. He joined the ID in September 2005 and was soon
after appointed as the ID's Election Campaign Manager in
March 2006. He also served as an ID Councilor on the Durban
Metro Council in 2006. After becoming a member of the ID's
National Executive Committee, Hoosen was elected as the ID's
Secretary General in 2007 and to Parliament in 2008.

-- Ari Seirlis is the National Director of the QuadPara
Association of South Africa and has held the position since

2001. The Association strives to prevent spinal cord injury,
as well as protect and promote the interests of people with
mobility impairments. Seirlis broke his neck in a car
accident in 1985 which rendered him a quadriplegic.


7. (C) The 2009 elections will be the second time that the
ID is participating in a national election. Although the
party will vehemently deny it, they are in a fight for their
survival. The emergence of COPE has presented many of their
supporters with new choices, and the DA has grown in strength
amongst both coloured and black people in the Western Cape.
The inclusion of Aristides Seirlis is an attempt by the party
to gain votes amongst a previously untapped voters pool,
although it is perhaps a case of too little too late.
Notably, the ID has increased their number of female
candidates from 44 percent to 56 percent. Black candidates
increased from 35 percent to 47 percent, while there was only
a marginal increase in white and Indian candidates, with
coloured candidates remaining at 40 percent.

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Perspective from Pretoria: The Congress of the People
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8. (C) As expected, Mvumelwano "Mvume" Dandala, COPE,s
presidential candidate, appeared first on the national list.
Party president Mosiuoa Lekota followed him on the roll.
Amid controversial statements about COPE,s leadership
problems, the party's first Deputy President Mbhazima Shilowa
appears at number five following the party's second Deputy
President Lynda Odendaal and Treasurer General Hilda Ndude.
Deputy Secretary-General Deidre Carter is listed at number
six, and old ANC hand Smuts Ngonyama appears at number nine.
Anele Mda, who was originally tipped to lead the COPE Youth
League but ultimately lost out, appears at number ten.
Former Eastern Cape Premier Zisiwe Balindlela is at number
11, and Dennis Bloem, who recently defected from the ANC,
makes his appearance at number 30.


9. (C) The top order of the COPE national list comprises a
number of old school politicians such as Shilowa, Lekota, and
Ngonyama -- recently lifetime members of the ANC. However,
the list also brings in a new element of business-oriented
professionals, such as Odendaal and Carter, both of whom
offer a new management style to politics. As both the
selection of Odendaal and Carter shows, gender equality is
important to the party. COPE has adopted a fifty-fifty
gender policy with its national list. Young people also are
well-represented as demonstrated with the selection of Mda.
At 30 years old, she currently is the youngest member on the
list. Labor is represented in COPE, as former Congress of
Qlist. Labor is represented in COPE, as former Congress of
South African Trade Unions (COSATU) President Willie Madisha
makes an appearance on the Limpopo provincial to national
list as the top candidate. Although he was ousted from
COSATU for his support of Mbeki, Madisha has been
instrumental in forming another trade union as an alternative
to COSATU, which he claims will have no affiliation to COPE.


10. (C) Beyond Madisha, most of the provincial lists are
filled with unknowns and controversial populists. The
majority of COPE's premier candidates in Limpopo, Mpumalanga,
Northern Cape, Free State, Kwa-Zulu Natal, and the North West
are not very well known to the population. For example,
COPE,s premier candidate in the Free State will be up
against the populist Ace Magashule. In the Eastern Cape,
which COPE maintains as its provincial support base, former
presidential advisor Wiseman Nkhuhlu will be running for
office. Allan Boesak is COPE,s Western Cape premier
candidate, and although popular amongst the coloured
community, his criminal past may come back to haunt him.
COPE,s candidate for the premiership of Gauteng, Lyndall
Shope-Mafole, had good standing in the ANC and managed to get
elected onto the ANC's National Executive Committee before

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defecting to COPE. Her main challenge will be campaigning in
a province that does not know her.

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Perspective from Johannesburg: The African National Congress
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11. (C) As expected, ANC President Jacob Zuma is at the top
of the list followed by ANC Deputy President Kgalema
Motlanthe, ANC National Chairperson Baleka Mbete, and Finance
Minister Trevor Manuel in rank order. Despite recent
controversy and criticism surrounding the current Minister of
Education, Naledi Pandor is still at number 10. (Note:
Pandor has been heavily criticized by the ANC's Youth League
for the department's failure to lift flagging test scores.
End Note.) The newly appointed Minister of Health has made
an impression in the ANC with the way she has quickly made
progress with the challenges facing the Department of Health
and is in position number 20. However, she had a recent
public spat with the ANC when she opposed a government
decision to deny the Dalai Lama entry to South Africa, which
may yet come back to haunt her. Other ministers also feature
on the list. For instance, the current Minister of Labor,
Membathisi Mdladlana, was previously a supporter of former
President Thabo Mbeki but has since become a staunch
supporter of Zuma in the former Deputy President's quest to
save his political career. The current Minister of Trade and
Industry Mandisi Mpahlwa is fairly low on the list in 49th
place, but is still a player on the roll. Mpahlwa was
criticized by the ANC for his lack of consultation with the
party and its alliance members. The current Minister of
Environmental Affairs, Marthinus Van Schalkwyk, is number 63.
Tito Mboweni is starkly absent on the ANC National list and
his re-instatement as the Governor of the Reserve Bank may be
unlikely as he is not popular with many alliance members.


12. (C) The ANC's list features a balance between new
candidates and continuity, yet there are some salient
changes. The mix of new candidates such as Bathabile Dlamini
at number 16 and long-time leaders such as Winnie
Madikizela-Mandela at number five and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma
at number six illustrates that while the ANC sees the need to
harvest new talent there is also a greater need for
continuity and known players. Even though the list contains
a greater number of candidates who are presently serving in
Parliament, there are new faces on the top 20 like Emmanuel
Nzimande, Emmanuel Mthethwa , Angelina Motshekga, and Fikile
Mbalula. (Note: On March 31 the Electoral Court of South
Africa ruled in favor of Madikizela-Mandela, allowing her to
remain as a candidate for the ANC despite a felony conviction
because she later received a suspended sentence and was not
incarcerated. The Freedom Front Plus had lodged a court
complaint with the Independent Electoral Commission, stating
that Madikizela-Mandela did not qualify as a candidate due to
her criminal record. Madikizela-Mandela was found guilty on
43 counts of fraud and 25 of theft, but in 2004 a judge in
the Pretoria High Court overturned the conviction for theft
while upholding the one for fraud. She was handed a
suspended sentence of three years and six months. End Note.)
Qsuspended sentence of three years and six months. End Note.)


13. (C) Gender balance remains important to the ANC, as its
list indicates. The ANC has maintained equal gender
representations; fifty percent of the top twenty alone are
women. Madikizela-Mandela is a controversial candidate but
enjoys great support from many African women as a former
Women,s League President. Mbete at number three is a former
ANC Women,s League Secretary General, and Dlamini is
supported mainly by young women as she is the former ANC
Women's League National Secretary. Motshekga at number 18 is
the ANC Women's League President and a staunch Zuma
supporter. Mbeki was committed to gender representation, and
it is clear that the ANC under Zuma,s rule will continue
with this policy to keep the support of the women,s vote and
the loyalty of the ANC Women's League.


14. (C) Youth also remains important as the ANC Youth League
helped to propel Zuma into power. Mbeki,s regime did not
incorporate Youth League representation on the ANC list, but
this has changed with Zuma. The top twenty includes two
former presidents of the ANC Youth League: Fikile Mbalula at
number 11 and Malusi Gigaba at number 19. At the ANC's
national congress in 2007 at Polokwane, the ANC committed
itself in ensuring youth leadership development. Thus, even

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though youth numbers are low they are better placed than in
comparison to the Mbeki government. Interestingly, despite
the ANC's commitment to include traditional leaders and
chiefs on the list, only Patekile Holomisa at number 41 is on
the roll. Zuma has criticized the previous ANC regime for
not working closely with traditional leaders.

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Comment
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15. (C) Analysis of the parties' list by Political Section
officers is helpful to gain a better understanding of the
state of play ahead of the national election. Ongoing
contact with academics, political commentators, party
members, and party leaders is useful in attaining context and
impressions for analysis into South African politics.
However, a thorough examination of party lists as conducted
by officers across the mission helps to bolster the context
with research and interpretation.
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