PART 3 OF 3: SCENESETTER FOR SOUTH AFRICA'S APRIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000662

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL SF
SUBJECT: PART 3 OF 3: SCENESETTER FOR SOUTH AFRICA'S APRIL
22 NATIONAL ELECTION

REF: A. PRETORIA 000543

B. PRETORIA 000544

PRETORIA 00000662 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR RAYMOND L. BROWN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).

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Summary
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1. (C) This cable is part 3 of 3 on the South African
election. End Summary.

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Important Political Markers to Watch
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2. (C) There are at least five political markers for this
election:

-- The possibility of violence will be a marker. There
already have been incidents of violence between the ANC and
COPE and between the ANC and the IFP. Most political leaders
admit that there have been incidents of political
intimidation at rallies and speeches, but say that violence
will not be a major issue either before or after the poll
because of the strength and independence of the IEC. All
political parties have signed a code of conduct that they
must follow to participate in the election, and since
agreeing to the code there has been a noticeable decrease in
the amount of angry rhetoric from party leaders. Violence is
always a possibility in a country with as many competing
interests as there are in South Africa, but the SAG has
worked hard since 1994 to move the nation away from its
violent past. University of South Africa professor Dirk
Kotze noted that the IEC already is working with parties in
liaison relationships to settle election disputes before they
start. He said, "Parties have met with the IEC numerous
times in recent months to lodge complaints and to work for
solutions so there will be no surprises on April 22 or
thereafter."

-- Voter turnout will be a marker. The ANC has increased its
electoral dominance in every election since 1994. However, a
closer study of turnout among eligible voters over time shows
a different story. While the number of eligible voters
increased by around 5 million between 1994 to 2004 due to
population growth, the number of IEC registered voters did
not grow. Millions of potential voters did not register.
Moreover, the number of ballots cast actually decreased.
Thus, in spite of the ANC's increasing electoral margins from
63 to 69 percent, the size of the eligible voting population
actually voting for the ruling party has not increased or
even remained static in proportion to population growth. The
ANC's core support actually decreased from 53 to 39 percent
of South Africa's eligible voting population. Political
commentators say that turnout among certain social groups,
such as young voters, could fundamentally shift voting
patterns. The 2008 Labor Force Survey estimates that 18 to
29 year olds constitute a massive 23 percent of the
population. The IEC acknowledged recently that registration
levels among this segment of the population have risen
dramatically.

-- Provincial results will provide a marker for the 2011
local election. The poll two years from now will in many
ways be just as important in determining the future landscape
of South African politics as this ballot. Results in Western
Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu Natal, Limpopo, and Northern Cape will
be important indicators for how the 2011 election will shape
up. Results in Western Cape and Limpopo especially will
prove critical to projecting the electoral future.

-- Whether the ANC achieves a two-thirds majority in
Q-- Whether the ANC achieves a two-thirds majority in
Parliament also will be a marker. The ANC remains the
dominant player in South African politics until proven
otherwise and, in many ways, this marker is what the 2009
election is about. If the ANC fails to win a two-thirds
majority, it would be a severe psychological blow to the
ruling party and to Zuma himself. Moreover, without a
two-thirds majority, the ANC would have to compromise on
legislation in Parliament to gain approval (to implement
changes such as constitutional amendments). Beyond being a
psychological blow and potential hindrance to passing some

PRETORIA 00000662 002.2 OF 002


legislation, there are few immediate implications for the ANC
not winning a two-thirds majority.

-- Patronage and the power of incumbency will be a marker.
Patronage is a marker because there are credible reports that
the ANC, on the local level, has used party resources to
provide grants and food for hard-pressed voters. Yet, Post
has seen no indication of the ANC leadership using public
funds to direct election-related benefits such as
food-for-votes schemes. There are anecdotal reports that the
ANC is focusing on areas it has ignored during the past five
years to boost its votes in certain areas, but there is no
evidence that the party is using state resources for
election-related corruption. Power of incumbency is key
because the ANC is using state resources for its campaign.
The party used a national helicopter to carry Motlanthe into
East London for the ANC's party manifesto launch. The party
also encouraged Mandela to attend a campaign rally in Eastern
Cape along with Zuma to show voters that the legendary ANC
leader still supports his ideological home. Mandela's
appearance was controversial, but demonstrates how the ANC
uses its historical place as a liberation movement to attract
voters. Moreover, the ANC is using its power to lure COPE
members back to the party with offers of jobs and positions
in government, according to local press reports.

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Election Observing
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3. (C) The U.S. Mission is South Africa will have the
largest, and one of the only, electoral observing missions
for this election. U.S. officers and South African nationals
working for the Mission will visit every province, every
provincial capital, and roughly 200 polling stations in the
country beginning April 21 and ending on April 23. There
will be more than 135 officers participating in the observing
effort.

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Comment
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4. (C) This election, one of the most important since 1994,
will begin to answer whether COPE is a viable opposition,
whether the ANC will hold onto governing the Western Cape,
whether the IFP will remain relevant in KwaZulu Natal, and
whether the tripartite alliance's staunch support of Jacob
Zuma will be vindicated with a resounding victory -- and a
two-thirds majority in Parliament. This election will
demonstrate where this country is after 15 years of
democracy. What this election will not do is help definitely
answer questions about where this country is headed in the
future. If the ANC President can govern successfully for a
full presidential term in the face of wide-ranging corruption
charges, if the ANC will drastically overhaul Mbeki's
policies, and if Zuma and his ANC will soften the party's
stance in support of fellow liberation movements will be
answered over time, but not right away.
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