AFRICAN MINING INDABA WATCHING GLOBAL MARKETS WITH GROWING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 000393

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

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DEPT FOR AF/S, ISN, EEB/ESC AND CBA
DOE FOR T.SPERL, G.PERSON, A.BIENAWSKI, M.SCOTT, L.PARKER
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ENRG EMIN EPET SENV BEXP EINV SF
SUBJECT: AFRICAN MINING INDABA WATCHING GLOBAL MARKETS WITH GROWING
CONCERN

REF: A) DURBAN 19
B) PRETORIA 228
C) 08 PRETORIA 2733
D) 08 PRETORIA 2732
E) 08 PRETORIA 315

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The 14th African Mining Indaba took place in Cape
Town February 9-12 under the cloud of an unprecedented global
commodity downturn and economic malaise, in great contrast to last
year's celebration of the commodity boom (Ref E). Last year's worry
of regional power shortages has greatly diminished, but regulatory
uncertainty remains a significant issue in South Africa and the
region. Investment and credit in mining are scarce on the
continent. Observers see signs of some recovery in China, whose
demand has been the key driver for mining investment. End Summary.


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Mining Industry Hits Rock Bottom - Indaba Views
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2. (SBU) Minerals/Energy Officer and Specialist attended the
African Mining Indaba February 9-12 in Cape Town. The Indaba is one
of the world's largest mining investment conventions, attended by
ambassadors, ministers, and company CEOs from all parts of the
world. This year's Indaba's consensus view was that Chinese
interest in resource deals in Africa is sustained, despite its
downturn in demand (septel). Refs A-D provide recent reporting on
how the downturn has adversely affected mining and mineral
processing in South Africa. Ref E analyzed last year's Indaba back
in the commodity boom and frenzy, when scarce power supply was the
issue of the moment.


3. (SBU) Attendance at this year's African Mining Indaba was down
one fifth from the record boom-time attendance last year (from 5000
to 4000). Conference Director Tim Wood told delegates that
companies with market values totaling $1.3 trillion last year were
represented at the Indaba this year and that this year their value
had plummeted to $560 billion. Keynote speakers detailed the extent
of weak global growth, particularly in the U.S. and China. The
global slowdown has in turn shriveled demand for basic commodities,
with the exception of gold, which still draws investors seeking safe
havens in turbulent times. Some speakers pointed out signs of a
hoped-for turn-around, particularly in China, and the observation
that the mining industry had seen and overcome cyclical downturns
many times before. A cash-rich uranium prospecting company told
Minerals Officer it was now easy to get appointments with bankers
and he had to fend off desperate project promoters. One delegate
was quoted: "There are some hopeful people here with mines that
never can be profitable, looking for financing that isn't there."


4. (SBU) Mining Minister Buyelwa Sonjica called on mining companies
to hold off on retrenchments and warned that there would be no
extensions for the end-April due-date for applications for new-order
prospecting rights. A recent ranking by mining consultancy Behre &
Dolbean of the investment climate of 20 mining countries placed
QDolbean of the investment climate of 20 mining countries placed
South Africa nineteenth, largely because of uncertainties over
security of mining rights. An investment banker warned that
sensitive black empowerment deals required under the mining charter
and the accompanying Minerals and Petroleum Resource Development Act
were in breach of debt covenants after a deterioration in company
earnings and share prices. (Note: Most BEE deals rely on dividend
streams to pay interest on loans used to buy shares in companies.
End Note.) Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel provided a life-line
of sorts with his Budget decision to delay by a year the
implementation of mining royalties, based to a greater extent on
turnover rather than income, which would lessen financial burdens on
struggling mining companies.

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Every Cloud has a Silver Lining

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5. (SBU) Energy Minister Buyelwa Sonjica offered help to the
stricken South African mining industry in her opening address to the
Mining Indaba. She stressed that her Department aimed to provide an
enabling environment for industry to overcome the global economic
slowdown, which she characterized as a "still unfolding process".
Sonjica said South Africa must manage the current slowdown and then
be prepared for the next commodity boom. The Minister cited
government infrastructure spending and the Department of Minerals
and Energy task force that has been considering measures to reduce
job losses. Sonjica called on industry to use all means possible to
avoid retrenchments. She said she was committed to reviewing the
Mining Charter to assure that efforts to transform the industry were
making progress. She admitted that Broad-Based Black Economic
Empowerment provisions were not always yielding real broad-based
transformation (that is, reaching beyond the usual BEE players.)
Sonjica warned mining companies that they must submit applications
for conversions of mining licenses under the Minerals and Petroleum
Resource Development Act by April 30. She emphasized the
government's commitment to improving mine safety and securing
greater downstream minerals beneficiation in South Africa. Finally,
Sonjica said South Africa had postponed - but not abandoned - its
plans to build new nuclear power plants.


6. (SBU) Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel announced a 12-month
delay in imposing new tax royalties under the Minerals and Petroleum
Resource Development Act, in a key contemporaneous budget
announcement in Parliament. This announcement recognized the
difficult situation facing the mining sector and offered a temporary
respite. At the same time, Manuel announced increased
infrastructure spending and support to Eskom. On the Indaba
margins, a rumor circulated that the Department of Minerals and
Energy would be split into two to allow better planning in the two
key sectors. The Minister did not mention this in her speech to the
Indaba.


7. (SBU) Much of the discussion revolved around when the downturn
would turn around. Many speakers saw hopeful signs in China, but
were pessimistic about the American market. Anglo American South
African Head Kuseni Dlamini subscribed to the rosy view that Africa
could jump start the downturned global economy. Rio Tinto Vice
President Jean Chawapiwa-Puma said her company was focused on
managing unprecedented difficulties, while preparing for the
eventual upturn.

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How Bad is it? Pretty Bad
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8. (SBU) The Indaba maintained the tradition of an early session on
specific commodities. Most commodity prices have fallen 50-70
percent from 2008 highs, with the single exception of gold, which
has maintained its value as a financial safe haven. Base metals
such as copper, zinc, and nickel have plummeted, such that many
Qsuch as copper, zinc, and nickel have plummeted, such that many
projects are now under water. Platinum Group Metals' situation is
tied to the lackluster American car market. Platinum is far off its
March 2008 peak of $2,276 per ounce, now floundering just over $900.
Many analysts saw tentative signs of improvement in markets,
pointing out long-term resource challenges and destocking by
consumers that will ultimately turn prices back. Uranium suffers
some volatility and weakness in its price, but some analysts were
optimistic given limited supply and long-term demand for a growing
number of nuclear power plants.

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Diamonds Challenge - Power of Love
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9. (SBU) Diamond guru Chaim Even-Zaher said the diamond market's
health was tied to the strength of the U.S. market. He foresaw a
dramatic drop of about 60 percent in rough diamonds in 2009.
DeBeers Executive Director Stephen Cussier said there were too many

PRETORIA 00000393 003 OF 004


rough diamond stocks and debt in companies. Nevertheless, he said
DeBeers was positioned to weather the storm. After the Indaba,
Botswana-based Debswana announced that a number of significant mines
were on "care and maintenance". Both Even-Zaher and Cussier had a
long-term positive take on diamond demand. Even-Zaher said there
would still be sex, love, marriage, divorce, and remarriage, all
driving diamond demand. The DeBeers officer said even in tough
times, there was still love.

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Gold Decoupled from other Commodities
--------------


10. (SBU) Gold stood out as an exceptional good news story at the
Indaba, as its price -- alone among commodities -- has held its
strength, as a safe haven. One analyst said, "gold is as gold
does," pointing out its special quality as a hybrid investment for
storing value, apart from its pure commodity utility. AngloGold
Ashanti, Newmont, RandGold, Gold Fields, and Harmony all had bullish
stories to tell about commitment to safety and their project
pipelines. AngloGold Ashanti proudly pointed out that their Mponeng
mine had breached the previous deepest depth for mining of 3,777
meters (visited by Energy Officer last year).

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Retreat of Resource Nationalism
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11. (SBU) International Finance Corporation Mining Division Head
William Bulmer said, "The boom in the commodity prices led to a real
resurgence in resource nationalism and participation in mining
companies by governments across the world, including Africa." He
cited examples in the DRC, Zambia, and South Africa. Bulmer said,
"In this current market, resource nationalism will recede." He said
Africa should move away from nationalism and excessive intervention
to attract investors at a time when metal prices are collapsing.

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Rome was not Burned in a Day
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12. (SBU) U.S. Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Dr
Russell Walter Meade emphasized that the world has seen and overcome
economic crises before and this one would be no different. He noted
that "Rome was not burned in a day," as remarked by one Visigoth to
another. Meade characterized the current crisis as stemming from a
"stupid banker crisis" (a frenzy of ill-advised lending and a
profusion of financial instruments that out-stripped the ability to
price underlying risk) and unprecedented imbalances between current
account and trade surplus and deficit countries. He said China in
particular suffered from a bubble of excess manufacturing capacity.
The result of the crisis that arose from these imbalances will be a
substantial period of weak demand in commodities tied to
manufacturing. Meade saw the way out of the crisis as targeting
infrastructure spending, promoting growth of the middle class, and
maintaining faith in liberal capitalism and globalization.

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Q --------------
Comment - China to the Rescue?
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13. (SBU) South Africa to some extent missed out on the commodity
boom -- because of challenges related to regulatory uncertainty,
transformation requirements, safety problems, power shortages, bulk
transport bottlenecks, and mature geology -- but it and the rest of
Africa will not miss out on the commodity bust. Mining companies
have reacted quickly to purge the excess of projects and to limit
mineral supply. At the same time, they are trying to remain
flexible to take advantage of the inevitable upturn. Companies that
held off on retrenchments - hoping for a short downturn - have now
concluded otherwise and are now scaling back operations and
employment. Chinese demand is seen as the last great glimmer of
hope for a turnaround given the expanding recession in many parts of

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the world. It remains to be seen if that is the case.
lA LIME