ZUMA SEEKS UNITY AS HIS COALITION COMES UNDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 002594

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: ZUMA SEEKS UNITY AS HIS COALITION COMES UNDER
THREAT

REF: PRETORIA 2543

PRETORIA 00002594 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) African National Congress Youth League (ANCYL)
President Julius Malema, the National Union of Metalworkers
of South Africa (NUMSA),and the South African Communist
Party (SACP) have been trading public barbs during the past
week, a clear sign that the loose coalition of forces which
brought President Jacob Zuma to power is tottering. In an
attempt to tamp down these growing tensions, Zuma addressed
the SACP congress December 12, and called public disputes
alien to the culture of South African politics; he also
reportedly addressed the infighting at a special session of
the ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC) on December 14.
Zuma was propelled to power at the 2007 ANC party congress by
support from the SACP, unions, and ANC members from the Youth
League and Women's League, all of whom were disgruntled with
the autocratic rule of then-President Thabo Mbeki. Backing
from these elements sustained Zuma as he ran for President of
South Africa earlier this year and helped him win the public
relations battle he faced over the state's corruption case
against him, which was ultimately dropped. However, it seems
that individual agendas among some of the leaders of its
constituent parts are beginning to undermine the strength of
this alliance, forcing Zuma to intervene and try to find ways
of maintaining unity while also asserting ANC leadership.
(Note: Although Zuma's loose coalition of forces is under
threat, we do not see the ruling tripartite alliance as being
under threat of falling apart. End Note.) Whether or not he
succeeds in this balancing act may determine the success or
failure of his Presidency. End Summary.

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Political Infighting on the Rise . . .
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2. (C) SACP delegates booed ANCYL President Julius Malema on
December 10 when he was introduced by SACP National
Chairperson Gwede Mantashe. The negative reaction most
likely stems from the public argument between Malema and SACP
Deputy Secretary General Jeremy Cronin. Cronin wrote an
article disagreeing with Malema's call for the
nationalization of South Africa's mines. In response, Malema
called Cronin a "white messiah." Following the booing by
SACP delegates, Malema reportedly asked Mantashe if he could
address the crowd and the SACP chair refused the request.
The ANCYL President then walked out of the SACP's congress
and denounced the delegates' treatment of him in an interview
with e-TV. The SACP responded by calling Malema a "drama
queen" and Malema is reported to have sent Cronin an angry
text message warning "wait until you see what is coming in
your direction." Zuma addressed the SACP in a closed session
on December 12 and told delegates that infighting and
name-calling would not be tolerated by the party's
leadership. He also called a special meeting of the ANC's
NEC for December 14 where the infighting would be discussed.
(Note: As of December 15, there was no information publicly
on what was discussed at the NEC meeting. End Note.)


3. (C) The dispute does not appear to be quieting down. In
the days following Zuma's address, the battle lines have been
drawn between the trade unionists and communists on one side
Qdrawn between the trade unionists and communists on one side
and the ANCYL leader on the other. Young Communist League
(YCL) President Buti Manamela said publicly, "Those who
continue to call our leaders racist should never have
illusions of receiving red-carpet treatment in this
congress." He added that "those who make the threats (of
using the youth to mobilize against organizations such as the
SACP) should know that the YCL is also there in every campus.
We are prepared to meet fire with fire." Manamela also told
reporters that Malema's exit from the congress was driven by
the fact that he was "running away from engaging in a
constructive debate with communists. Any attempt to play
drama queen and disrupt this congress will not be
appreciated." NUMSA, one of the biggest affiliates of the
Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU),released a
statement saying that the structures of the ANCYL have been
"unleashing missives to the SACP as part of reinforcing the

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resurgence of anti-SACP posturing within our revolutionary
alliance as led by the ANC." NUMSA, which is largely less
pragmatic than COSATU senior leadership, fully supported the
SACP's stance on nationalization and place within the
alliance. NUMSA spokesperson Castro Ngobese, who attended
the SACP congress, said attacks between the SACP and ANCYL
should be "located and understood within the context of the
realignment of different class forces and fractions (sic)
within the ANC who see the SACP as a threat to their narrow
and self-centered accumulation interests."


4. (C) The ANCYL blamed the SACP's desire for greater power
in the ANC for the latest public dispute. The league accused
SACP Secretary General Blade Nzimande of wanting to oust ANC
Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe. Malema said that the
league would oppose an attempt by the communists to take over
senior positions in the ANC. ANCYL spokesperson Floyd
Shivambu, who attended the SACP congress as a member of the
YCL, said, "We will not agree to the dumping of undemocratic
leaders into the ANC, and we will decide on the leadership of
the ANC when the time is right." The league's national
working committee resolved on December 14 to oppose the
election of communists to top positions in the ANC. The
ANCYL also wants to oust Mantashe at the ruling party's
congress in 2012 because he serves as a senior leader of the
SACP. Malema on December 15 told reporters at the National
Press Club that the treatment he received at the SACP's
conference was a planned tactic to throw down the "gauntlet
to the youth league." He said, "It (the treatment he
received) was an invitation to war and I knew this. We have
to leave it to the youth league to decide whether they are
accepting this invite to war. The youth league accepted the
invite and we are not going to retreat." The ANCYL also said
that Mantashe's silence on the booing incident is because the
ANC Secretary General has a position in the SACP and does not
want to speak out on the issue.

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. . . Putting Zuma in a Tough Spot
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5. (C) Zuma, a known consensus builder, has sought the
middle ground in the dispute. Zuma told the SACP on December
12 that the alliance is home to different people, with
different characters, who raise issues differently. He said,
"At times (people) irritate in meetings. They just have a
culture of irritating. The critical thing is how do we
handle such comrades? Do you also become an irritant? You
can't." Zuma added, "The public outbursts and acrimonious
exchanges are not in the tradition of the alliance,
irrespective of where they come from ... If we believe that
somebody among ourselves is ill-disciplined, let us deal with
the matter. If we don't deal with it, we allow this sickness
to eat the alliance up like a cancer."


6. (C) In a press interview on December 14, Zuma told
reporters that the objective of the alliance was to stir
debate and that he was unfazed by the infighting. He noted,
"We've got a country that must accommodate everybody ... what
has been critical in the alliance is that those debates help
us to move forward." The ANC leader also put the public
infighting in perspective, saying that "this is not a new
issue. During the days of Peter Mokaba, we had a lot of
Qissue. During the days of Peter Mokaba, we had a lot of
this, so there is nothing new with Malema." Zuma admitted
that the SACP was out of line in its treatment of Malema. He
stated, "We must say things that provoke people. You can't
also say we should be booing one another. Everybody did not
behave well." In general, Zuma said he welcomed the debate.

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Zuma's Base Cracking, But Not Because of Him
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7. (C) Fractures in Zuma's support base have grown in recent
months, with the outburst between Malema and the SACP and
COSATU only the most recent display of infighting. The
cracks are largely because of problems in the base itself,
not because of Zuma's leadership. The ANC's decision on
November 8 to reaffirm the party's support for Minister in
the Presidency for National Planning Trevor Manuel's
controversial plan for a National Planning Commission, made
it clear to the ANC's allies in the tripartite alliance, the
trade unions and communist party, that Zuma has final say on
policy decisions, and was not about to embark on the total

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rethink of economic policy some of them wanted. SACP and
COSATU were said to be severely disappointed about the
adoption of the commission. Journalist Mandy Rossouw told
Poloff last month that the traditional paradigm of "left" and
"right" is shifting in the ruling alliance as senior
communists and leaders with a trade union background move
towards an increasingly pragmatic stance. She contends that
an alignment between pragmatic "leftists" and ministers who
served in the last Cabinet has taken place, crowding out many
of the more radical elements.


8. (C) She also noted, "Those supporting Zuma (at the ANC's
2007 congress in Polokwane) are divided into the principled
left, those who were in trouble with the Scorpions (FYI: the
now-abolished anti-corruption police unit),and those who
didn't get tenders. And the cracks are starting to show."
She added that the emerging tensions in the alliance are
making it increasingly clear that these factions have
different agendas. In an article in the "Mail and Guardian"
published on November 27, Rossouw wrote that an ANC NEC
member told her that "there is a populist, right-wing element
in the ANC that includes people such as Tony Yengeni and
Malema. This grouping is Africanist in nature and believes
in militant populism -- and they are loud and crude."


9. (C) Anthony Butler on December 14 argued in a column for
"Business Day" that the recent SACP congress was a "watershed
moment" for the disparate coalition of forces that propelled
Zuma into the ANC's top position. In his view, the coalition
of forces is no more. Butler stated that Zuma has ignored
policy proposals from the communists and the trade unionists
and is sanctioning the anti-communist crusade that Malema
seems to be instigating. Butler also wrote that Zuma's
speech to the SACP delegates strongly resembled remarks that
Mbeki would have made to the communists. Butler said, "Zuma
reduced the function of the SACP to that of a talking shop."
Words such as, "The SACP should play its historical role and
provide robust and profound intellectual an ideological
debate to the alliance" or "The party ought to play a role in
making suggestions in what we can do better" in Butler's view
show that Zuma is secure enough to ignore those elements that
brought him into power.

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Comment
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10. (C) The break-up of the coalition of forces that brought
Zuma to power probably will hurt the forces themselves more
than the South African President. The SACP, COSATU, and
ANCYL currently have greater access to the machinery of state
power than ever before, but so far have been unable to steer
Zuma or the party away from many of the same policies on the
economic front Mbeki had been following. Their access to
state power means that the tripartite alliance will remain
intact for the foreseeable future, but we think their rivalry
will, if anything, reduce their collective influence on Zuma
and his government. While Zuma's call for unity may be
ineffective in bridging the gap between the ANC, unions, and
communists, it does demonstrate that those groups got exactly
the kind of consensus-building leader everyone understood
Zuma to be. Over the longer term, Mantashe and others with
positions both in the ANC and in the alliance may be the real
losers of all this acrimony as they could be voted from posts
Qlosers of all this acrimony as they could be voted from posts
in the ruling party at the congress in 2012. The groups that
brought Zuma into power were always strange strategic
partners. Now the partnership appears to be coming apart.
End comment.
GIPS