ZUMA'S POPULARITY AT ALL-TIME HIGH

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 002543

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: ZUMA'S POPULARITY AT ALL-TIME HIGH

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (SBU) President JACOB ZUMA is more popular than ever,
according to a research survey conducted by TNS Research
Surveys. (Note: TNS Surveys provides market research,
global market research, and business analysis in hundreds of
countries and claims to be the largest provider of customized
research in South Africa. End Note.) Company spokesperson
Neil Higgs noted, "Zuma's 100-day approval rating was 57
percent, dropping to 53 percent in September, but increasing
to an all-time high of 58 in November." Higgs attributed the
rise to Zuma's visit to Zimbabwe in August and the
establishment of a task team to deal with issues in the
neighboring country. Higgs also speculated that Zuma's
increased popularity could be related to the nomination of a
new chief justice and the launch of a presidential hotline.


2. (SBU) The survey was drawn from three studies conducted
among a sample of 2,000 South African adults from seven of
the major metropolitan areas of the country. The results
showed that black South Africans were more approving of Zuma,
with 75 percent agreeing with his leadership. Whites were
described as "remarkably" positive about Zuma, but 32 percent
were still unsure of his leadership. Higgs added, "The
majority of Coloreds and Indians were described as
'fence-sitters,' also unsure of Zuma." Notably, ZUMA at this
point is more popular than former President Thabo Mbeki was
when he was recalled in September 2008. Mbeki left with a
rating of 34 percent.


3. (SBU) The African National Congress (ANC) on December 8
welcomed the survey's findings. The party released a
statement that said, "Not only has President ZUMA
distinguished himself as a leader with the ANC's structures,
he has been recognized as a peacemaker in Africa."


4. (C) COMMENT: Zuma's increased popularity rating comes a
week after he was featured in a largely positive "Time"
magazine article about his leadership. Many observers
attribute his approval rating to his visit to Zimbabwe in
August or to the launch of a presidential hotline to receive
complaints about service delivery. So far, however, these
actions are more style than substance since the SAG so far
has only hinted at a different approach in its dealings with
Zimbabwe's political leaders, and ZUMA himself on December 2
described the hotline as "unable to handle the call load."
However, at least for now, the popularity mark may put the
ANC's alliance partners in a difficult position. High
approval marks probably will make it more difficult for
public criticism by the South African Communist Party or the
Congress of South African Trade Unions to gain steam the way
it did under Mbeki. END COMMENT.
GIPS