SOUTH AFRICA FEARS ZIMBABWE MAY BE SLIDING BACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 002312 DEPT FOR AF/S - DIOPM, WALKES, WALCHB E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL ZANU SF ZI SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA FEARS ZIMBABWE MAY BE SLIDING BACK Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) Summary: During a press conference on November 10, Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) Director General Dr. Ayanda Ntsaluba said regional leaders feared Zimbabwe could be sliding back from progress on the political and humanitarian fronts since the inception of the inclusive government, which coincides with President Jacob Zuma's emergence as facilitator for the next round of negotiations. Ntsaluba said the "tight" timeframes for resolution of outstanding issues amongst Zimbabwe's governing political parties signaled impatience of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) leaders with the slow pace of progress in implementing the Global Political Agreement (GPA). SADC expects the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to join the call for lifting of sanctions, according to Ntsaluba. He congratulated the European Union (EU) for re-engaging with the Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ). He also said the SAG agreed with the Kimberley Process decision not to suspend Zimbabwe. End summary. -------------- SADC IMPATIENT WITH ZIMBABWE'S LEADERS -------------- ¶2. (U) Ntsaluba remarked on what he said was the general sense that the political and humanitarian situation in Zimbabwe was beginning to improve under the inclusive government, but said regional leaders feared that the "petty squabbling and politicking amongst the leadership of Zimbabwe" would cause the country to slide back. When asked about meeting the 30-day deadline for resolving outstanding issues, he said they could not guarantee the deadline would be met. He went on to say, "The fact that there were clear timeframes that were put, and the fact that those timeframes are as tight as they are, is just really a signal of some degree of impatience of the regional leadership around the fact that the political leadership of Zimbabwe must not squander what appears to be the opportunity, perhaps their only opportunity, to pull the country out of the abyss..." ¶3. (C) Freedom House Regional Director Karl Beck shared with Poloff a readout of the SADC Troika meeting in Maputo from Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Legal Advisor Jacob Mafume. Zuma's participation in the Troika meeting was sudden and unexpected, according to Mafume's understanding. He said Zuma assumed responsibility for personally facilitating further implementation of the GPA. He clarified that former President Thabo Mbeki and his aides Frank Chikane and Mojanku Gumbi would no longer be involved. (Note: An aide to South African Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane confirmed to Ambassador Gips that Zuma is the new SADC facilitator. End note.) According to what Mafume told Beck, Zuma told Tsvangirai privately that he was concerned about Zanu-PF's capacity to perpetrate violence. Mafume said the MDC is under the impression that Zuma favors Zanu-PF, but has lost patience with Mugabe. He said to Beck that the MDC believes Zuma is frightened about the potential negative effects on South Africa's World Cup if Zimbabwe "blows up." -------------- SAG SATISFIED WITH MDC'S RE-ENGAGEMENT -------------- ¶4. (U) Ntsaluba remarked, "We are indeed very happy that the MDC has gone back to the inclusive government. We are encouraged by the fact that all the parties in Zimbabwe, regardless of the differences, communicated very clearly to the heads of the region that the inclusive government essentially is the only game in town, and that everything should be done to make sure that the inclusive government becomes successful." -------------- CONTENTIOUS ISSUES -------------- ¶5. (U) Ntsaluba noted that the delegation to Zimbabwe from the SADC Organ of Politics, Defense and Security had recognized that some issues were impeding successful operation of the inclusive government. He listed the main issues, beginning with those of the MDC: "the issue of the governor of the Reserve Bank, attorney general, the provincial governors and the issue of Roy Bennett, and then the issue of what was characterized as basically the re-emergence of, let us say, political insecurity in a sense, and the issue of possible new land invasions. On the government's side, there have been raising a number of issues. The one issue was of course what they regard as the non-commitment of the MDC team in particular to the commitment undertaken to the full lifting of sanctions and accusations that, therefore, the MDC team has not delivered on its side of the mandate, of the bargain." When asked whether SADC expected the MDC to effect the lifting of sanctions, Ntsaluba said the MDC alone could not carry that responsibility. He then reminded the press corps that the lifting of sanctions was a SADC position, adding, "We would expect all the parties to be unambiguous in communicating that view." ¶6. (U) Ntsaluba mentioned Zanu-PF's claims of the existence of a parallel government, which he said refers to support that the MDC allegedly receives from some international donors. He noted the fragility of the political process in Zimbabwe and cautioned the international community to be sensitive to the possibility of misunderstanding when providing assistance. He congratulated the EU for its recent high-level visit to Zimbabwe and meetings with the GOZ. He said, "As South Africa, we have been really very happy with the open re-engagement of the European Union and other major donors formally with the formal structures of the government of Zimbabwe, so that we can cross this barrier of a suspicion that the rest of the international community wants to support only one faction of the government, because that is not conducive to any effective functioning of a cabinet collective." -------------- PLEASED WITH KIMBERLEY PROCESS DECISION -------------- ¶7. (U) Ntsaluba described the November 2-5 meeting of the Kimberley Process (KP) as a "very heated discussion." While some called for suspending Zimbabwe, the majority agreed with the GOZ on a work plan to meet KP expectations. He remarked, "And we are particularly happy with that outcome. We think it is the correct outcome." ¶8. (C) South African BlomDiamonds President Ernest Blom told Minerals/Energy Officer that he thought the KP artful compromise to give Zimbabwe six months to "get its house in order" versus some sort of suspension was the right path. He noted that there was strong resistance to suspension from Asia, Africa, and Rio Tinto (which operates a legitimate mine in Zimbabwe). Although Marange diamonds are easily identifiable, there is no provision in KP for a partial suspension, he said. He admitted he had "mixed feelings" about giving Zimbabwe more time, given the apparent human rights violations. He noted that apparently (his emphasis) private companies now had more control of the Marange site. Blom said that the U.S., Canada, E.U., and NGOs comprised a strong lobby for full suspension, but they bowed to the consensus. Blom said he was heading to Antwerp for World Federation of Diamond Bourses meetings (he is the president) and he would be happy to share views afterwards. ¶9. (C) Comment: Although Ntsaluba is not in the inner circle on South Africa's Zimbabwe policy, his statements to the press provide a strong indication of SAG attitudes and views Qpress provide a strong indication of SAG attitudes and views regarding Zimbabwe. Of particular interest is the fact that he referred to ZANU-PF as "the government" and as "the ruling party," suggesting that the SAG is aware that the inclusive government falls short of a true power-sharing arrangement. Ntsaluba made a point of presenting both the MDC and ZANU-PF positions, critical for developing credibility as the SADC facilitator for this crisis. Although most observers expect Zuma to be more sympathetic to the MDC than Mbeki was, we still believe he will favor ZANU-PF over the MDC. That said, Nstaluba's comments about the "impatience" of regional leaders with all the Zimbabwean leaders tracks with what we have heard about the views of the South African political elite, including Zuma. End comment. GIPS