UDM WELL-ORGANIZED, BUT LACKS SUPPORT NEEDED TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000182 SENSITIVE SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (PARA 1 & 5 MARKINGS) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KJUS PGOV SF SUBJECT: UDM WELL-ORGANIZED, BUT LACKS SUPPORT NEEDED TO MAKE IMPACT IN ELECTION PRETORIA 00000182 001.6 OF 002 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The United Democratic Movement (UDM) ran a well-organized, nationally televised manifesto launch in Johannesburg on January 24 that on the face of it suggests Bantu Holomisa's party is ready to make inroads in the upcoming election. The party drew roughly 5,000 supporters, almost all from the party's base in Eastern Cape, to the South African National Convention Centre on the weekend. Holomisa's promise that the party would focus on economic development, combating crime, improving education, fighting corruption, saving the environment, improving HEALTH care, and pushing electoral reform was televised across the country on the South Africa Broadcasting Corporation (SABC). The emergence of the Congress of the People (COPE) and the lack of viable party candidates aside from Holomisa makes it unlikely the UDM will improve its fortunes drastically despite its successful launch. End Summary. -------------- UDM Launches Manifesto -------------- ¶2. (U) The UDM held its policy manifesto launch at the South African National Convention Centre in southwestern Johannesburg on January 24. The launch, well attended by both party supporters and journalists, was broadcast live on SABC. (Note: The SABC's decision to broadcast the UDM's policy manifesto launch rather than the COPE manifesto launch in Eastern Cape drew condemnation from Mosiuoa Lekota's party even though the corporation stated its obligation to cover parties with at least ONE percent representation in Parliament. Lekota boycotted a debate among political parties on January 25 because of the broadcasting service's decision. End Note.) UDM party leaders and media representatives gauged the crowd to be roughly 5,000. The atmosphere was that of a family reunion, with nearly everyone in the crowd wearing party t-shirts adorned with Holomisa's photo. (Note: Poloffs noted that most of the vehicles in the convention center's parking lot showed Eastern Cape plates. End Note.) Despite a relaxed atmosphere from the crowd, there was very little dancing and the only music came when the party played its official election anthem on speakers. ¶3. (U) The UDM's launch was well-organized and efficient. Party volunteers ushered journalists and diplomats from the main auditorium to the VIP section for smaller discussions and refreshments. The volunteers made sure every guest had a copy of the UDM manifesto and other party pamphlets. Party leaders sat quietly on the main podium throughout all the speeches and the remarks started and ended on schedule, largely because of the time allotted to the party by the SABC. Most of the leaders were relatively unknown to the journalists and diplomats at the event. University of South Africa political scientist Dirk Kotze commented that the UDM launch was the most organized event he has attended this election cycle. He said, "The speeches gave a clear indication of where this party wants to go." (Note: Kotze also said the UDM is everything that COPE hopes to avoid -- a party formed as a protest against the ANC by a leader with support in the Eastern Cape. End Note.) -------------- UDM Pushes Extensive Manifesto -------------- ¶4. (U) The UDM pledged to focus on economic development, Q4. (U) The UDM pledged to focus on economic development, combating crime, improving education, fighting corruption, saving the environment, improving HEALTH care, and pushing electoral reform. (Note: For more information see the UDM's website at www.udm.org.za. End Note.) Holomisa went through each of the campaign issues during his speech, which was later used along with music as the party's official election anthem. However, he spoke in generalities when he addressed the issues, offering few concrete examples of how the UDM can improve some of the country's most pressing challenges. For instance, on corruption, Holomisa noted that the UDM has a "zero-tolerance approach to corruption and nepotism; South Africans must be able to trust their leaders in government." On the environment, he noted, "An environmental crisis is looming in South Africa." The only issue on which Holomisa did present an alternative was on electoral reform. He said, "For many years the UDM has advocated for a more accountable PRETORIA 00000182 002.4 OF 002 electoral system -- a directly elected President and a mix of constituency-based and proportional representation in Parliament and provincial legislatures." (Note: The issue of electoral reform has taken off among political parties still upset over the forced recall of former President Thabo Mbeki. End Note.) Poloffs spoke with several UDM members about their reasons for supporting the UDM. ONE member said, "I support the party because I support Holomisa. We need change in this country and he can do it." Another noted, "I think we have strong issues, but an even stronger leader." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The UDM's policy manifesto launch was well-organized and efficient, but those characterizations probably will not do much to improve the party's chances in the election. Holomisa's party will be challenged by COPE because both are laying claim, along with the African National Congress (ANC),to broad support in the Eastern Cape. There were signs of significant support for the UDM from the Eastern Cape, but there was little indication that the party is drawing enough support nationally to overtake the ANC or COPE. The party also is challenged by the fact that it is still very much Holomisa's party, without many recognizable candidates beyond him. The party for now seems to remain popular with those who identify with Holomisa and believe he can deliver change. BALL