South Africa: Minerals and Energy Newsletter "THE ASSAY" -

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 PRETORIA 001017 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE PLEASE PASS USAID STATE PLEASE PASS USGS DEPT FOR AF/S, EEB/ESC AND CBA DOE FOR SPERL AND PERSON DOC FOR ITA/DIEMOND E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EPET ENRG EMIN EINV EIND ETRD ELAB KHIV SF SUBJECT: South Africa: Minerals and Energy Newsletter "THE ASSAY" - Issue 3-4, March-April, 2009 This cable is not for Internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) Introduction: The purpose of this newsletter, initiated in January 2004, is to highlight minerals and energy developments in South Africa. This includes trade and investment as well as supply. South Africa hosts world-class deposits of gold, diamonds, platinum group metals, chromium, zinc, titanium, vanadium, iron, manganese, antimony, vermiculite, zircon, alumino-silicates, fluorspar and phosphate rock, and is a major exporter of steam coal. South Africa is also a leading producer and exporter of ferroalloys of chromium, vanadium, and manganese. The information contained in the newsletters is based on public sources and does not reflect the views of the United States Government. End introduction. -------------- HOT NEWS -------------- -------------- Minerals and Energy Portfolios to Split -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Splitting of the South African Department of Minerals and Energy will lead to more focused attention on energy and mineral issues, according to mining industry contacts. Mining and energy are increasingly complex sectors that can no longer be effectively managed by one ministry. The move has been generally applauded by the respective industries. Mining has historically been the driving force in the South African economy and generally over-shadowed energy, but this is no longer the case and mining is dependent on a secure supply of quality energy to stay in business. ¶3. (SBU) The new Minister of Energy Dipuo Peters is the former premier of the Northern Cape Province. She is an unknown quantity as far as energy matters are concerned and faces numerous challenges in all sectors of the power supply chain, from generation to distribution and the issue of power to rural communities. She also will need to identify, establish, and implement a framework for participation of the private sector, an issue that has been bedeviled by power utility Eskom's low tariffs, resistance from unions, and government's inability to make decisions. The South African Petroleum Industry Association (SAPIA) has also supported the establishment of energy into a separate ministry. The Chamber of Mines said it was pleased with the appointment of Minister of Mining Susan Shabangu, noting that she had previously served as Deputy Minister of Minerals and Energy and was well aware of the issues facing the mining industry. The new cabinet will have to coordinate oversight of Eskom, which falls under the Department of Public Enterprises. -------------- SA's First Quarter Output Down by 12.8% -------------- ¶4. (SBU) South Africa's mining production for the month of March was down 4.6% on March 2008, state-owned Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reported. Total mining production for the quarter ended March 2009 was down 12.8%, compared with the quarter ended December 2008. Q2009 was down 12.8%, compared with the quarter ended December 2008. Stats SA reported that the main contributors to the quarter's decline were platinum-group metals (PGMs),chrome, and diamonds. South Africa's mining output figures do not look good, but some sort of a base was starting to build, according to fund manager director Sasha Naryshkine. He said the two biggest draw-downs in the quarter had been diamonds and chrome, with each recording a 52.2% decline compared to the quarter ended December 2008. He noted: -- many diamond-mining companies had placed their operations on care-and-maintenance as a result of lower demand during the first quarter of the year; -- gold had increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter; -- iron-ore remained flat, but there were signs of improvement in PRETORIA 00001017 002 OF 006 the demand for iron-ore; -- PGM production would increase once the automotive industry started its turnaround; -- local coal demand would increase now that South Africa was entering its winter. -------------- ENERGY -------------- -------------- New Uranium Plant for AngloGold -------------- ¶5. (SBU) AngloGold Ashanti is building a new uranium plant at its Kopanang mine in the North West Province. This will boost South Africa's uranium output by 60% to about 2.2 million pounds of U3O8 (1,000 tons) per year. Chief executive Mark Cutifani said the Kopanang plant would result in AngloGold producing more than 2 million pounds (910 tons) of uranium per year, up from 1.3 million pounds (590 tons) last year. The plant is estimated to cost about $233 million. Cutifani said AngloGold was expecting the uranium price to trade at between $65 and $70 per pound of U3O8 over the long term, compared with a prevailing spot price of $44 per pound. AngloGold produces uranium as a by-product at its gold mines. AngloGold spokeswoman Joanne Jones said it was likely that almost all the new uranium production would be exported. At the prevailing uranium price, South Africa would earn $36 million in extra export earnings a year from the new plant. Jones said the plant was likely to start production early in 2012. South Africa ranks 11th in the world in uranium production and 4th in reserves behind Australia, Kazakhstan, and Canada. This could change as Namibia continues upgrading its considerable resource base. -------------- Uranium is Namibia's Future -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Uranium could surpass diamonds as the country's most valuable mineral export by 2010, according to the Chamber of Mines of Namibia. Namibia was ranked the world's fourth-largest producer of uranium oxide (U3O8) in 2008, behind Canada, Australia and Kazakhstan. Planned mine expansions at Rossing and Langer Henrich and new developments at French company Areva's Trekkopje and Canadian company Forsys' Valencia projects could increase the country's uranium output to 13,000 tons of U3O8 per year by 2015. This would put Namibia into third place, above Kazakhstan. Uranium exports in 2008 amounted to $629 million, up 11% on 2007, and accounted for 37% of total raw mineral exports and 22% of Namibia's total exports. At the same time, Namibia's real mining value-added output is projected to decline by 29% in 2009, according to the Bank of Namibia (BoN). This is due to a three-month shutdown of land-based diamond operations, from April, and the indefinite closure of the country's four copper mines at the end of 2008. Some 2,000 mining jobs have been lost to date, according to the Chamber, as a direct result of the global recession. This may be partially offset by new job opportunities created by the uranium mines. ¶7. (SBU) The Erongo region of Namibia hosts a large number of Q7. (SBU) The Erongo region of Namibia hosts a large number of easily-accessible, near surface, primary alaskite- and secondary calcrete-hosted uranium deposits. The region lies inland from the coastal towns of Walvis Bay and Swakopmund in the western part of Namibia. These deposits are mostly low-grade, but economically mineable at prices for uranium oxide (U3O8) of above $60 per pound projected for 2010-11. Output of U3O8 totaled 5,150 tons in 2008, an increase of 52% over 2007, of which 4,070 tons were produced by Rossing Uranium (Rio Tinto) and 1,080 tons by Langer Heinrich (Paladin Resources),which is in the process of ramping up to full production. -------------- SA Urged to Restart Nuclear Process PRETORIA 00001017 003 OF 006 -------------- ¶8. (SBU) South Africa must restart its stalled nuclear build program as soon as possible in order to develop a successful nuclear industry, said panelists at the recent Power and Electricity World Africa Conference in Johannesburg. The program has been delayed with the cancellation of the Eskom tender at the end of 2008. Both nuclear industry and state-owned Nuclear Energy Corporation of South Africa (NECSA) representatives urged the SAG not to wait any longer before restarting the program as the nuclear industry needed visibility and predictability, and would not otherwise invest. Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) Marketing and Localization Manager Gert Claasen said that a quick announcement of a construction schedule for the first new nuclear plant would open up opportunities to upgrade the entire industrial capacity of the country, decrease reliance on imports, and possibly increase South Africa's export opportunities. Westinghouse South Africa Regional Vice President Rita Bowser said decision-makers had to realize that nuclear power was coming, and had to react now. She said that infrastructure and foundations should be prepared to make the nuclear industry a domestic and sustainable one. Bowser said the nuclear industry could tolerate delays, but needed some certainty on the size of the build, and timelines, soon. It was also important to allow vendors to plan properly. ¶9. (SBU) Panelists identified the following benefits for the South African nuclear industry: -- Provide an opportunity to develop and prepare new skills and technology; -- Create twice as many jobs as the coal-fired power industry and five times more than the wind power industry; -- A "nuclear renaissance" would stimulate economic growth; -- The associated manufacturing capability required would further stimulate growth; -- Nuclear power is the only greenhouse-friendly, base-load power technology available; -- Nuclear would provide energy utilities with safe, competitive, base-load power. -------------- China-SA Nuclear Cooperation -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The advancement of the next generation Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) received a boost with the signing in March of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in Beijing between the Chinese and South African developers of the technology. PBMR company of South Africa has been developing the pebble bed technology in parallel with the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology (INET) of Tsinghua University and Chinergy Company of China. The Chinese pebble bed concept is based on a 10 MW research reactor that was started up in Beijing in December 2000 and achieved full power operation in January 2003. The MOU is designed to facilitate cooperation on identified areas of common interest. The countries hope to pursue collaboration in a number of strategic and technical areas relating to high temperature reactor (HTR) projects in both Qareas relating to high temperature reactor (HTR) projects in both countries. Director of INET Prof Zhang Zouyi says the MOU will create a strategic environment for the two parties to work together. He added that the MOU was the result of natural synergies between the South African and Chinese HTR project teams, which were highlighted at an HTR conference in Washington DC in 2008. ¶11. (SBU) PBMR CEO Jaco Kriek has welcomed the collaboration with China. He said the MOU will create opportunities for the future commercialization of the technology and strengthen supply chains in both countries. The MOU is supported by both the Chinese and South African governments. The two projects have chosen slightly different technical approaches, but both are high temperature, gas-cooled reactors using pebble fuel, and offer the best potential for sustainable, clean, reliable sources of energy with passive, inherently safe characteristics. Its proponents hope pebble bed technology will bring a new option to the energy market in the near PRETORIA 00001017 004 OF 006 future which will offer flexible, smart grid solutions for electricity, process heat and steam solutions for petrochemical industries, oil sands extraction, and desalination. It will also pave the way to high temperature hydrogen production, according to Kriek. South Africa and China are widely recognized as world leaders in the field of high temperature reactor design. -------------- MINING -------------- -------------- Zambia's Luanshya Mine Goes Chinese -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Chinese-owned NFC Africa Mining, a unit of China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group, was selected by the GRZ in May to take over Luanshya Copper Mines in Zambia. The mine has been under care and maintenance since December, according to the President of the National Union of Miners and Allied Workers. Luanshya was Zambia's largest cobalt producer until it was closed in December 2008, with an annual capacity of up to 4,000 tons of cobalt and 40,000 tons of copper. The company was also developing the $351-million Mulyanshi copper project, expected to produce an average of 60,000 tons of copper per year throughout its 10-year life span. NFC already owns Chambishi Copper mines, as well as the new 150,000 ton-a-year Chambishi copper smelter on the Copperbelt. Other companies that had bid for Luanshya included London-listed Vedanta Resources. Luanshya is expected to resume output at the mine before the end of May and will rehire around 1,700 miners who were laid off when the company closed. Chinese-owned companies are continuing to invest in Zambia's mining sector, but are said to be unpopular among mine workers and politicians who accuse them of having poor labor and safety practice. -------------- New Mining Code "No Cause for Alarm" -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act of 2002 (MPRDA) was promulgated by the State President on May 1, 2004. At the same time the Broad-Based Socio-Economic Charter (Mining Charter) for the mining industry was also implemented. The objective of these legislations was to promote equitable access to the nation's mineral resources for all South Africans and to expand opportunities for historically disadvantaged South Africans (HDSA). The new Code of Good Practice was published in the Government Gazette of April 29. It does not replace any key elements of the MPRDA and Charter, but serves to provide substance to existing policy and to serve as a measure of the socio-economic transformation in the mining industry. The Department of Minerals and Energy (DME) has responsibility to ensure that transformation within the minerals industry takes place as per the Code. (Note. The new dispensation following April's general election splits the DME into two ministries, mining and energy. This may require amendments to existing legislation and to the Code itself. End Qamendments to existing legislation and to the Code itself. End Note.). The Code lays out levels of black participation to be attained within specific time frame and covers: equity ownership; management control; employment equity; human resource development; preferential procurement; mine community and rural development; beneficiation; and housing and living standards. Compliance is to be measured with reference to targets set by the respective scorecards in the above areas. Uncertainty in practical implementation of some of these requirements is causing concern in the industry. ¶14. (SBU) The mining industry has no cause for alarm over the Code of Good Practice, according to the Chamber of Mines CE Mzolisi Diliza. Industry says they knew that the Code was to be published by April 30, but claim they were not consulted on the draft document, which was also not made available for comment. They are concerned that some areas of the Code are too specific, other areas PRETORIA 00001017 005 OF 006 too vague, and the issue of having to provide housing for workers did not consider existing bargaining agreements with the unions, which specified such benefits. The Code was also not clear in the section defining "fronting", which describes the act of placing previously disadvantaged South Africans in senior positions, but without voting rights, authority, or control in the company. Diliza said the Chamber had been involved in initial discussions on the Code, which was supposed to be circulated for public comment by the DME. He excused the DME oversight as being due to pressures of the general election. The Code contained clauses that were acceptable to the Chamber, and others that were not, he said. -------------- Importance of Mining to Africa -------------- ¶15. (SBU) An estimated 13% of the global mining sector's economic activity takes place in Africa and mining is one of the few sectors where the continent can compete in global economic terms. Many countries rely heavily on revenues from the mining sector, including Zambia and the DRC (copper and cobalt),Botswana (diamonds), Tanzania, Mali, and Burkina Faso (gold). In addition, Angola and Nigeria are dependent on oil revenues for economic development. South Africa, which has the biggest economy in Africa, relies on raw and processed minerals for 17-18% of GDP, more than 50% of export earnings, 18% of total fixed investment, and 35% of liquid fuel requirements, using coal-and-gas-to-liquid technology (CTL and GTL, respectively). The current global financial crisis has resulted in a significant fall in the demand for and price of mineral commodities and the withholding of finance to fund exploration, new mine development, and mine expansions. This is causing great distress to all African mineral producers. ¶16. (SBU) Senior Fellow for U.S. foreign policy Russell Mead reminded delegates at South Africa's annual Mining Indaba09 in Cape Town that bubbles and crashes have been a consistent part of the last 300 years of humanity's progress. Mead said the current financial crisis was caused by large pools of capital, such as those held by OPEC, being spent on the expansion of production capacity, which far exceeded the respective producer country's own demands. Countries like the DRC and Zambia developed large new copper and cobalt capacity based on perceived long-term demand from China, India, and other countries. Most of this was not sustainable in the short-medium term, he said. Base metals and diamonds were always going to take a knock as the world went into its first global recession in decades. In addition, junior miners in Africa, which rely on steady injections of imported venture capital, were also going to suffer and a number of them have now disappeared. Even the majors are suffering as a result of top-of-the-market mine purchases. Anglo American failed to produce a final dividend for Qpurchases. Anglo American failed to produce a final dividend for the first time since World War II, sold the last of its holding in AngloGold Ashanti, and went to the bond market to reduce debt. On a more positive note, Mead said the global slowdown would not be bad for the mining sector in the longer term. It provided an opportunity to cool ever rising input costs, dampen speculative commodity prices, relieve pressure on suppliers and skills, and allow governments space to review mining legislation and policy. Finally, mine overcapacity would give a head-start to commodity production when demand resumed. -------------- Vivid Blue Diamond Breaks Price Record -------------- ¶17. (SBU) The vivid blue diamond produced from the Cullinan diamond mine in 2007 was sold for $9,488,754 or $1,349,752 per carat. This is a new record price per carat for any gemstone sold at an auction. Petra Diamonds, which recently bought the mine from De Beers, announced that the price was also the highest for any blue diamond. The diamond is internally flawless, cushion-shaped, weighs 7.03 carats, and was sold at Sotheby's Magnificent Jewels auction in PRETORIA 00001017 006 OF 006 Geneva. The uncut diamond weighed about 39 carats. The sale price exceeded the previous record price of $1,328,444 per carat for a 6.04 carat fancy vivid blue diamond sold for $7,981,835 in May 2008. Petra Diamond CEO Johan Dippenaar said the price achieved for the diamond reflects how rare and collectable such a diamond is to the connoisseur. The Cullinan mine continues to produce some of the world's great diamonds, building on its history as the source of the most famous Cullinan Diamond, which weighed 3,106 carats and is the cornerstone of the British crown jewels. -------------- Union Demands 15% Wage Hike -------------- ¶18. (SBU) South Africa's National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) has demanded a 15% wage increase for its members. This was the initial bid at the start of two-year wage talks for the country's gold and coal sectors. In a statement, the NUM said the mines could afford with ease the increase, given the country's increased demand for coal as well as the significant gold and export coal price increases since the last bargaining sessions. NUM spokesperson Lesiba Seshoka said the union would remain firm on its demands. ¶19. (SBU) From industry's point of view, the talks to settle a fresh two-year wage agreement face the backdrop of a global economic crisis, plummeting commodity demand and prices, and widespread job cuts in the South African mining and metals industry. NUM has said it will take these issues into account. Revenues for gold and coal have increased over the past years, but industry claims that annual production cost increases of 25-35% have limited margins, a fact that NUM has not considered in their wage demands. In addition, many mines were shut down for a week in January 2008 due to power cuts, additional production losses resulted from a 5-10% power rationing, and some mines were closed for up to a week following fatal accidents. Other demands made by NUM include; -- medical aid to be paid on a 70:30 basis (employer: employee); -- minimum basic wage of R5,000 per month ($580) for entry-level underground workers; -- minimum living-out allowance of R1,500 per month ($175); -- home-owner allowance adjustment to R5,000 per month ($580) or 25% of the mortgage repayment. Note: The combination of a lower gold price and a strengthening rand relative to the dollar has reduced revenue for local miners from more than R300,000 per kilogram to less than R250,000 per kilogram. Similarly, the export price of thermal coal has fallen by about 50% since September 2008. End Note. La Lime