SCENESETTER FOR CZECH FOREIGN MINISTER'S VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRAGUE 000069 SIPDIS STATE FOR T, EUR/FO, EUR/CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV EZ SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CZECH FOREIGN MINISTER'S VISIT TO WASHINGTON Classified By: CDA MARY THOMPSON-JONES FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a year when the Czech Republic will celebrate the 20th anniversary of its Velvet Revolution, nothing symbolizes better the truly remarkable journey this country has traveled since 1989 than the Czech Foreign Minister's arrival in Washington as the representative of the European Union and of a valued NATO ally. Foreign Minister Schwarzenberg's chief goal is to set the stage for U.S.-EU cooperation during the Obama administration's first six months, which correspond with the Czech EU presidency. Of particular interest to the United States are the Czech presidency's EU priorities related to energy security, the Middle East, and Afghanistan. In addition, Schwarzenberg will renew the Czech government's invitation to President Obama to attend an informal U.S.-EU summit in Prague that would complement the G-20 and NATO summits already scheduled for early April. Schwarzenberg will also seek to reaffirm his country's strong bilateral ties with the United States. The Czech Republic has been a committed ally, actively engaged in Afghanistan and Kosovo, but also in advancing democracy and human rights around world. For the Czech government, missile defense (MD) is another key element of the country's partnership with the United States, and FM Schwarzenberg will press for a clear statement of the Obama administration's MD policy. Also of note, FM Schwarzenberg travels directly from Washington following this meeting for the EU-Russia Ministerial Troika in Moscow. END SUMMARY. -------------- A Valued Ally With Domestic Challenges -------------- ¶2. (C) Nearly 20 years after the 1989 "Velvet Revolution," the Czech Republic today is a stable democracy with a market economy, and a committed U.S. ally. The Czech Republic has been a member of NATO since 1999 and the European Union since ¶2004. Our bilateral relations are excellent, with the Czech Republic's recent entry into the Visa Waiver Program having removed the one long-standing irritant in our relationship. Czech Prime Minister Topolanek's commitment to strong transatlantic ties undergird his government's support for the U.S.-proposed missile defense radar site in Brdy near Prague. The country has also been a steady supporter of U.S. and NATO military operations and has over 1000 troops on foreign deployments, despite the fact that public support for some deployments recently has slipped slightly. In Afghanistan, the Czechs launched a provincial reconstruction team (PRT) and deployed a Special Forces unit in 2008. Over the past several years, they have also maintained an infantry battalion of 450 troops in Kosovo. Building on its own recent history, the Czech Republic is our strongest partner in Europe on Cuba, and an active supporter of Cuba's democratic opposition. Likewise in Georgia, Belarus, Burma, Iraq and other countries in transition, the Czech government and NGOs work to support peaceful transformations. Prague has been home to the U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty since 1995, and has actively supported broadcasts to countries in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East. ¶3. (C) Since assuming office in January 2007, Prime Minister Topolanek's right-of-center coalition government has maintained the Czech Republic's traditional transatlantic orientation despite a tense domestic political situation. The ruling coalition's shaky majority in the parliament depends on the assistance of a few deputies who have crossed party lines but whose support has been unreliable. The resurgent parliamentary opposition has been pressing the government on all fronts, including in matters of foreign and security policy, the two areas where past governments and oppositions had worked well together. Consequently, decisions on everything from foreign deployments to missile defense (MD) have been tainted by the country's domestic politics, at times to the detriment of the Czech Republic's international standing and national interest. ¶4. (SBU) Following several years of strong economic performance, the Czech Republic is now struggling with the effects of the global economic downturn. While the Czech financial system remains relatively healthy and the currency has been stable, the Czech real economy is feeling the effects of the global financial crisis, largely due to a drop in demand for Czech exports. After three years of over six percent real GDP growth (2005-2007),the Czech economy slowed to four percent in 2008 and is expected to fall to between zero and two percent in 2009. The Czechs are closely consulting with the UK on the EU response to the crisis. While they support increased coordination among national regulators, they are likely to oppose any attempts to PRAGUE 00000069 002 OF 004 implement new pan-European financial regulations or efforts to erode their free and open trading and investment climate. -------------- EU Agenda: Gas, Gaza, Guantanamo -------------- ¶5. (C) The Czech Republic joined the European Union in May 2004, and assumed its first-ever rotating six-month presidency on January 1, 2009. The Czechs view FM Schwarzenberg's visit as an opportunity to formally present their EU presidency to the Secretary. Traditionally the Czech Republic has shared with the United States the same broad goals and approaches to key foreign policy issues. From Cuba to Russia to the Balkans, we have worked with the Czech Republic closely in the past, and this close cooperation has continued during the Czech EU presidency. One key goal for the Czechs is to re-energize the transatlantic partnership with the Obama administration. To that end, the Czechs have invited President Obama to participate in an April U.S.-EU summit that could focus on energy and climate change and would complement the economic and security themes of the G-20 and NATO summits, which President Obama is scheduled to attend. The Czechs have repeatedly pushed hard for this visit. The proposed Prague venue for the U.S.-EU summit is important to the Czechs, for whom it would represent a recognition of the truly remarkable progress the Czech Republic and its Central European neighbors have made since the fall of the Iron Curtain in ¶1989. ¶6. (C) The Czech presidency's overarching theme is "Europe Without Borders" and its three priority areas, the "3 E's," are: 1) Economic Competitiveness (including addressing the challenges of the global financial crisis); 2) Energy Security and Sustainability; and 3) Europe in the World (external relations). Their first several weeks at the helm of the EU, however, quickly became consumed by the "2 G's": gas and Gaza (with Guantanamo referred to as a third "G" in private conversations with Czech officials). The Czechs' active shuttle diplomacy facilitated a solution to the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute. The bigger challenge, however, lies ahead: uniting the EU behind an energy security strategy that rests on further diversification of suppliers and routes, including support for the Nabucco and TGI (Turkey-Greece-Italy) pipelines, improved outreach to Caspian producers, and increased interconnectivity of the internal EU gas and electricity grids. (Note: The unpredictability of Russian energy supplies had already hit the Czech Republic in 2008, when Russian crude oil deliveries to the Czech Republic declined sharply -- ostensibly for technical reasons -- following the July 2008 signing of the U.S.-Czech Ballistic Missile Defense Agreement. End Note.) ¶7. (C) FM Schwarzenberg traveled to the Middle East twice in January, in addition to hosting separate events for EU Foreign Ministers in Brussels with Israeli FM Livni January 21 and key Arab nations January 25. Schwarzenberg also spoke to Special Envoy George Mitchell on February 3 regarding Mitchell's visit to the Middle East and Europe. The Czechs have also participated in a recent EU humanitarian assessment mission to Gaza and plan to discuss the provision of EU assistance (58M euros for Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank and refugees in Lebanon) with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas once they are able to reschedule his visit, initially scheduled for February 3. The Czech government is committed to working within the EU and with the United States to solidify the cease-fire and create the conditions for a more lasting solution. The Czechs initially offered to host a conference on humanitarian assistance for Gaza. This has now evolved into an Egyptian-EU co-sponsored conference in Cairo slated for March 2. Now that there is talk also that the Ad-Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC) would meet March 4 in Oslo, FM Schwarzenberg is likely to emphasize the importance of close U.S.-EU coordination and reiterate that the Czechs, on behalf of the EU, stand ready to host future conferences or key meeting to advance peace in the region. ¶8. (C) The Czech EU Presidency has welcomed the U.S. administration's executive orders related to the closure of the Guantanamo detention facility. Also, the Czechs facilitated internal EU discussion at the FM level on January 26 regarding this issue. Besides applauding President Obama,s actions, however, the EU member states have not taken collective action as they consider this to be a decision for each individual member state to make. In conversations with Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried on January 9, Czech officials were clear that the Czech Republic, while willing to facilitate EU discussions on the resettlement of detainees, did not plan to accept any of them PRAGUE 00000069 003 OF 004 due to domestic political reasons. Ambassador-at-large for War Crimes Issues Clint Williamson is planning to visit Prague as part of a visit to key European capitals the week of February 9 to discuss the issue of Guantanamo detainees in greater depth. -------------- -------------- Regional Issues: Russia, Afghanistan, and the Balkans -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) A key challenge for the Czech Presidency will be to lead the EU toward a more united transatlantic approach to Russia. Given their negative historical experience, the Czechs have been a valuable U.S. ally with regard to Russia, within the EU as well as NATO. Events including the Georgia conflict, the gas crisis, and Russia's stance with regard to missile defense have reinforced Czech skepticism toward Russia. They generally agree with the U.S. approach of cooperating wherever possible, but resisting Russia's economic and military pressure against its neighbors. However, the Czechs are also keenly aware that during their EU presidency they may be required to temper their government's views on Russia to achieve an EU consensus. FM Schwarzenberg will head the EU delegation at the EU-Russia Ministerial Troika in Moscow on February 11 and Russia will host an EU-Russia Summit May 21-22. ¶10. (C) As referenced earlier, the Czech Republic expanded its support for Afghanistan in 2008 to include the establishment of a provincial reconstruction team (PRT) in Logar. In addition to this PRT, the Czechs have also deployed approximately 100 Special Forces troops and a handful of experts to an Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team (OMLT). In total, the Czechs have just under 500 military and civilian officials working in Afghanistan. While the Czech Republic is an active contributor bilaterally, they are also an advocate for greater EU coordination and contributions to the effort. FM Schwarzenberg hosted the EU-Afghanistan Troika Ministerial on January 28, where the EU reaffirmed its longstanding commitment to Afghanistan reconstruction (from 2002-2006 the EU contributed over 1.3B euro to this effort and for 2007-2010 it has pledged 610M euros). ¶11. (SBU) We have a ready and attentive ally in the Czechs when it comes to advancing stability in the Balkans and EU enlargement. FM Schwarzenberg frequently focuses attention on developments in the region during the regular monthly meetings of the EU Foreign Ministers. Unfortunately, Czech efforts to advance EU enlargement with Balkan countries have met with resistance from some EU member states. Name issues and ICTY compliance, but also enlargement fatigue are behind this resistance. We can anticipate that the Czechs will strive to keep the Balkan nations oriented to the West, but progress may be slow. -------------- Missile Defense Dominates Bilateral Agenda -------------- ¶12. (C) EU membership is one of two pillars of Czech foreign policy. NATO and strong transatlantic ties form the second pillar. Given the importance the Czechs assign to their relationship with the United States, PM Topolanek and his government have viewed missile defense as a natural next step in the security partnership between our two countries. Since the United States officially presented the MD proposal to the Czech Republic in January 2007, the Czech government has been unwavering in its support, despite significant public opposition driven largely by the Czech historical experience and concerns about foreign troop presence on the Czech territory. Russian threats and intransigence with regard to MD in many ways reinforced the Czech government's determination to proceed with the project. The Czech government moved quickly to negotiate and sign the Ballistic Missile Defense Agreement and the Status of Forces Agreement. The Czech Senate ratified the agreements in November 2008. Ratification of the two agreements in the Lower Chamber has been postponed due to domestic political divisions already mentioned, but also due to questions about the Obama administration's intentions. ¶13. (C) The Czechs have been paying close attention to any indications from Washington, be they from the Hill or administration officials. Several ministers in Topolanek's cabinet told Embassy Prague recently that they viewed a positive signal from the U.S. administration -- as well as continued progress within NATO -- as key to completing ratification of the MD agreements. The Czech government has also been trying to anticipate possible changes to the U.S. PRAGUE 00000069 004 OF 004 policy on MD. In recent meetings with Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher and Assistant Secretary Fried, Deputy Prime Minister Alexandr Vondra indicated that the Czech government would be interested in moving forward with the proposed radar site, even if the Obama administration decided to postpone its decision on the interceptors proposed for Poland. During his meetings in Washington, FM Schwarzenberg will probably deliver a similar message and underscore the need for close consultations between the U.S. and Czech governments on missile defense, which remains a top foreign policy priority for the Czech Republic. He will also stress the need for the new administration to soon issue a definitive statement of support for missile defense. -------------- A Strong and Reliable Partnership -------------- ¶14. (C) Despite its small size and at times unsettled political scene, the Czech Republic has consistently proven to be a reliable and active ally of the United States. The Czechs are appreciative of the positive role the United States has played at key moments of their history. They are, in turn, proud of their own contributions to security, democracy, and freedom around the globe since 1989. Among those contributions is providing a home to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. On July 4, 1996, Secretary Clinton, then the First Lady, spoke at RFE/RL in Prague about the democratic forces that have transformed Central and Eastern Europe since the fall of Communism. In the speech, Secretary Clinton stated: "Along with wider political, economic, and strategic alliances, we must consciously develop an alliance of democratic values to guide us as we confront the unavoidable questions of the 21st century..." The Czech Republic remains a committed partner of the United States in building this alliance and in facing this century's great challenges. Thompson-Jones