SCENESETTER FOR THE PRAGUE HIGH-LEVEL DEFENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000649 SIPDIS EMBASSY CAIRO PLEASE PASS TO ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE VERSHBOW E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2019 TAGS: PREL MARR MASS AF EZ SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE PRAGUE HIGH-LEVEL DEFENSE GROUP MEETING REF: A. PRAGUE 601 ¶B. PRAGUE 591 ¶C. PRAGUE 589 ¶D. PRAGUE 542 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mary Thompson-Jones, reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d). ¶1. (C) Assistant Secretary Vershbow: Your visit to the Czech Republic comes as we move forward from Vice President Biden's October 23 visit and Secretary Gates participation at the NATO Ministerial toward shaping a vision for the future of our partnership. While Czech transatlanticists expressed initial disappointment about the results of our missile defense policy review, they have constructively engaged with us and are seeking new avenues of cooperation. In Prague, you will find the atmosphere ripe for discussion of our joint future based ON the Czechs' non-papers (Ref A and C),and with the Vice President's very successful visit. For the Czechs, 2009 is a year of important milestones: the fifth anniversary of their entry into the EU, the tenth of their membership in NATO, and ON November 17, the twentieth anniversary of the Velvet Revolution. These events reflect the strength of Czech determination to remain anchored within the West. ¶2. (C) Czech interest in expanded cooperation was evident during the Vice President's visit, and his meetings with government and political leaders set the stage for substantive and detailed discussions at the High Level Defense Group (HLDG) meeting. Czech expectations are particularly high, given Biden's encouragement of Czech participation in the new phased, adaptive approach to missile defense. The Czechs await definition from us of a meaningful role they can play while we work with NATO to develop a new missile defense architecture, and as we broaden aspects of our bilateral security cooperation. Czech transatlanticists' concerns about Russia's expanding influence in the region, particularly in energy security, drive them to seek tangibly stronger ties with the U.S., even as they worry that America's role is diminishing in the minds of a more Brussels-oriented younger generation of Czechs. Czechs who take this approach welcomed the Vice President's assurances that the U.S. respects that Czechs will make their own decisions ON security matters and that the U.S. will work multilaterally, including through NATO. �00A;A Capable Interim Government -------------- ¶3. (C) After Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek's government fell ON March 24, President Vaclav Klaus appointed an interim caretaker government to lead until early elections. The caretaker government, led by former Director of the Czech Statistical Office Jan Fischer, assumed leadership ON May 8 and had a limited mandate until early elections, which were supposed to be in early October. A decision by the Constitutional Court scuttled the October elections and a subsequent agreement by the dominant parties in Parliament to hold early elections in November fell apart. Now the parliamentary elections will occur most likely in May 2010. Despite its limited mandate, PM Fischer's government has proven effective and adept. Swift passage of the foreign military deployment bill and an economic austerity package proved Fischer's political acumen and bolstered his credibility with the public. His administration appears capable of making the tough decisions that will be necessary to complete the 2010 budget process. As well, the Czech Republic remains a steady supporter of U.S. and NATO priorities. Indeed, some key current and former Czech leaders would prefer to see more engagement by the USG with Central Europe and have expressed this in a widely circulated Open Letter to President Obama in July 2009. Defense Minister Martin Bartak has proven to be an activist both internally and externally, and remains fully committed to strengthening cooperation with the United States and supporting the effort in Afghanistan. Economy -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The small, open, export-oriented Czech economy is now struggling with the effects of the global economic downturn. Although there are signs that the worst of the economic slowdown may be over, the economy is expected to contract by roughly four to five percent for all of 2009. PRAGUE 00000649 002 OF 003 While the IMF expects the Czech economy to grow by 1.3 percent in 2010, the Czech Ministry of Finance is forecasting growth of only 0.3%, partly due to recently passed tax increases designed to control the ballooning budget deficit. The Czech budget deficit was only 1.2 percent of GDP in 2008 but is expected to exceed 5 percent for the next several years, prompting significant cuts in discretionary spending; as a result the defense budget has shrunk to less than 1.4 percent of GDP. Strategic Military Cooperation -------------- ¶5. (C) Given the importance they assign to their relationship with the United States, former PM Topolanek and his government viewed missile defense as a natural, "symbolically important" step in the security partnership between our two countries. In the wake of the results of the missile defense policy review, Czechs have emphasized their desire to be involved in a substantive way in the new security architecture and pressed for details. They proactively provided Under Secretary Flournoy with a non-paper ON "The Way Forward in Strategic Cooperation" during her September 17 visit (Ref C). ON October 9 they also provided the Embassy a more detailed "Defense Related Issues" paper that they intend to use as the framework for the HLDG (Ref A). With Vice President Biden having identified the HLDG as the group tasked to flesh out the specifics of these arrangements, expectations are high. Ivan Dvorak and his staff will be willing to discuss broad relationships, but they are looking for specific, concrete deliverables, especially regarding the Czech role in the new architecture, C-130s, FMF, and other military aid and enhanced R&D cooperation. (Note: The Czechs are still working ON detailed sequencing for the meeting, but we expect that all of the issues in the "Defense Related Issues" paper will be covered during the course of the HLDG within the broad framework provided by your staff. End Note.) PM Flags Issues During Biden Visit -------------- 6 (SBU) During his meeting with Vice President Biden, Prime Minister Fischer highlighted Czech interest in acquiring C-130s. He stated that "we want to negotiate the price and revisit this issue." (Note: The Czechs have received a P and A initial price of USD 111 million, which they regard as too high. End Note.) Fischer also commented that Czechs feel they receive too little FMF in comparison with Poland. With respect to research and development cooperation, PM Fischer stated that they would like this not just in the military sphere, but in a broader range of fields. Fischer also expressed his appreciation for the upcoming establishment of the Office of Naval Research (ONR) and said the Education Ministry could be its partner. Fischer also touched upon the RDTE MOU as a key step, commenting that the Czechs would like to finalize this legal work as soon as possible. Czech Cooperation in Afghanistan -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In Afghanistan, the Czechs have approximately 500 military and civilian officials. The Czechs have launched a provincial reconstruction team (PRT),deployed a Special Forces unit, and sent experts to an Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team (OMLT) for helicopters in Afghanistan. The PRT in Logar is the flagship of Czech involvement. Based at FOB Shank in Pole-Alam, the total strength of the Czech PRT was increased in early 2009 from about 210 to 275 and now includes four infantry platoons. The Czech PRT began operations in March 2008, a period that coincided with a deteriorating security situation in the province (Czechs suffered three KIA in the first months of operation). Despite the security challenges, the Czech PRT got off to a fast START and generally received high marks for its approach to reconstruction and partnerships with local government and tribal leaders. At the heart of the Czech PRT is its team of civilian experts (eight to ten persons strong) that possess specific skills relevant to Logar Province (agriculture, aquifer management, public health, education, etc). PM Fischer told VP Biden ON October 23 that the Czechs plan to send 35 additional troops, although he did not provide more specifics about their work. Fischer also highlighted that his government has made a specific proposal ON L-159s for Afghan forces, and that they are awaiting a response from the U.S. side. PRAGUE 00000649 003 OF 003 ¶8. (C) The Czech Special Forces detachment, which has been deployed in its entirety for some time, will depart Afghanistan by December 2009. Defense Minister Bartak has directed that the unit be prepared to deploy again by December 2010. The Czechs have already requested assistance in refitting these forces (particularly with radios) and are likely to request additional assistance with training. Also the Czechs are currently deploying a 100-man Mi-17 helicopter detachment (to include 3 Mi-17 helicopters) to Logar. The advanced party is in place and the personnel main body will follow in mid-December to conduct familiarization training. The helicopters will not arrive until mid-January due to refurbishment and final certification requirements. Currently the Czechs intend to deploy their crews for just four months. This creates an operational problem due to the high risk associated with inexperienced crews in the combat theater. ISAF assesses that helicopter crews require three months before they leave the high risk category, and the short Czech crew deployments mean that they will have limited operational availability once fully certified. In the case of the first rotation, with a 30-day gap between the crew deployment and the helicopter arrival, it will spend its entire rotation in the high risk category. ¶9. (C) The Czechs have also decided to deploy a ground force OMLT in summer of 2010. While the actual requirement for the OMLT is still being developed with NATO, the Czechs are moving forward with activating and training the required forces. We expect a request for equipping and training assistance, but have not yet seen any details. Kosovo and the EU -------------- ¶10. (C) The Czechs currently maintain a maneuver battalion in Kosovo. In keeping with the NATO drawdown plan and to free up resources for Afghanistan, they will reduce their KFOR support to a small logistical element and an over-the-horizon infantry battalion by summer 2010. Current plans call for all Czech forces to be out of Kosovo by summer ¶2011. The Czechs have committed themselves to developing an EU Battle Group in conjunction with the Slovaks. While it is unclear how actively they are developing this capability, it has required that they earmark an infantry battalion for the project, which will reduce their available force pool for other operations. Defense Procurement -------------- ¶11. (C) Significant challenges remain in the defense procurement arena due to a Czech legal requirement that any foreign defense contractor selling to the Czech government work through an intermediary. These intermediaries add commissions to every public sector procurement project, basically inflating the acquisition costs with no value added. Attempts to revise the laws have been unsuccessful, and senior defense officials have requested US embassy assistance in having US companies pressure the intermediaries to keep prices down. In addition, the Czech MoD makes significant use of sole-source contracting venues. Allegations of corruption against current and former government officials are prevalent. Thompson-Jones