TWO TRACKS UNDERWAY TO RESOLVE CZECH ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000527

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV EZ
SUBJECT: TWO TRACKS UNDERWAY TO RESOLVE CZECH ELECTION
TURMOIL

REF: PRAGUE 523

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mary Thompson-Jones for reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The fallout from the Czech Constitutional
Court's decision to review the law setting early
parliamentary elections is branching in two directions. The
Court will convene on September 10, and could dismiss the
complaint filed by MP Milos Melcak, invalidate the law, or
defer a decision to a later date. Political leaders, opposed
to giving the Court the final word, have begun drafting a
constitutional amendment. Legal experts believe the
constitutional amendment process will push elections back at
least to early November. Existing constitutional options for
calling early elections have never been tried, and could drag
on for months or spawn other legal challenges. End Summary.

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Court to Convene September 10; One Report Says
Court is "Extremely Likely" to Invalidate Law
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2. (C) The Constitutional Court will meet on September 10 to
consider the complaint filed by Czech parliamentarian Milos
Melcak. According to one of the 20 National Electoral
Commission (SVK) Members, Jan Klusacek, Interior Minister
Martin Pecina reported at last night's SVK meeting that
Constitutional Court Chief Pavel Rychetsky told him it is
"extremely likely" the court will invalidate the law on
September 10. Officially, the court made no promises on the
timing of a decision. However, that the Court is meeting on
September 10 suggests it is responding to political and media
pressure.


3. (SBU) One option the Court has on September 10 is to
simply dismiss the Melcak complaint. If the complaint is
dismissed, there can be no further appeal and elections may
proceed on October 9-10. If the Court invalidates the law,
elections would revert back to June 2010, the end of the
current Chamber's term. The Court could also decide that it
needs additional time to review the complaint. According to
President Klaus, the law establishing the Constitutional
Court states that the Court cannot delay a verdict if the
delay would have a negative effect on the public well-being.
Given the stormy political and economic situation, said
Klaus, elections as soon as possible are in the public
interest. The Court has not commented on these public
remarks, but September 3 Czech media are filled with
commentary on whether the current situation merits such
treatment.

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Constitutional Amendment Could Delay Elections
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4. (U) Czech politicians, however, are not waiting around for
a Court ruling. President Klaus said after yesterday's
meeting with leading politicians at Prague Castle that there
was a consensus not to simply "await what happens without our
actions or intervention." Political leaders agreed to
propose a constitutional amendment allowing parliamentarians
to dissolve the Chamber of Deputies and call early elections.
The amendment would require a three-fifths vote (a
constitutional majority) in both houses of Parliament and the
signature of the President.


5. (U) President Klaus said the group will prepare the
amendment "within hours or days." Leaders of both houses,
Miloslav Vlcek of the Chamber of Deputies and Premysl Sobotka
of the Senate, promised to act quickly on the amendment, and
former Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said "(we) will use
every possibility to fast-track (the legislation),including
invoking a legislative emergency status." The current plan
is for the Chamber to consider the amendment on September 8
and 10, with the Senate taking up the measure on the 11th.
Legal experts told party leaders that the time required to
draft and approve a constitutional amendment means that
elections could be pushed back to at least early November.
Thus, the plan to hold elections on October 9-10 may be
unrealistic.

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Existing Constitutional Options
--------------


6. (U) Another option is using existing constitutional
provisions. The Czech Constitution provides four methods to
dissolve the Chamber of Deputies and call early elections.
The President can dismiss the Chamber if: 1) the Chamber
passes a vote of no-confidence in a newly-appointed
government whose Prime Minister was appointed by the

PRAGUE 00000527 002 OF 002


President on the suggestion of the chairman of the Chamber of
Deputies (in other words, when three efforts have been made
to form a government); 2) the Chamber of Deputies fails to
decide within three months on a government bill related to a
question of confidence; 3) a session of the Chamber is
adjourned for a longer period than permissible (120 days);
and 4) the Chamber has not reached a quorum for a period
longer than three months, although its session was not
adjourned and although it was repeatedly called to session
during this period.


7. (U) None of these methods has been used since the
constitution was adopted in 1993. The length of time needed
to implement any of these methods varies; options 2 and 4
would take at least three months. Christian Democrat
(KDU-CSL) chair Cyril Svoboda called the no-confidence vote
option the "smoothest method," given that three unsuccessful
votes on a new government would automatically lead to new
elections. Melcak attorney Jan Kalvoda, however, warned
against any effort by politicians to circumvent the letter
and spirit of the constitution, arguing that "(if)
politicians try to push through early elections by nominating
three cabinets in three days that fail to get votes of
confidence, such a proceeding could be attacked in court on
the grounds that it was faked."

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Mixed Reactions to the Challenge
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8. (SBU) Commentary on Melcak's challenge and the court's
decision has been mixed. Some believe the challenge is
valid. Alexandr Mitrofanov from Pravo: "Major political
parties tend to see themselves as the center of the
universe...If politicians win the current dispute with the
constitutional justices this vice will grow well beyond its
normal proportions." Other media experts disagree. Petr
Kambersky from Hospodarske noviny said "(some) experts say
the Constitutional Court doesn't have the right to rule on
the legality of a constitutional law, as that right belongs
solely to the Parliament which enacted it. We believe the
court has this right in cases in which a constitutional law
contradicts the constitution's spirit, such as if Parliament
canceled the elections or (curtailed) political freedoms. A
one-time shortening of Parliament's term doesn't qualify."
Kambersky thought the Court would realize this and allow
early elections.


9. (C) Comment: According to a member of the National
Electoral Commission, the Commission is continuing election
planning as if the October 9-10 elections will be held, and
political party leaders say they will continue to campaign.
However, absent another bolt from the blue on September 10
dismissing the complaint, a longer delay appears inevitable.
The newspaper Hospodarske Noviny said few politicians are
counting on October 9-10 elections now, and predicted that
November 2009 elections (70 percent odds) is the most likely
scenario. End Comment.
Thompson-Jones