CZECH EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS CAMPAIGN MIRED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000306

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2019
TAGS: EUN EZ PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: CZECH EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS CAMPAIGN MIRED
IN HARD-BOILED DOMESTIC POLITICS

Classified By: POLEC Counselor Charles O. Blaha, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).



1. (C) Summary. The Czech Republic,s two dominant parties,
former PM Topolanek,s right-of-center Civic Democratic Party
(ODS) and Jiri Paroubek,s left-of-center Social Democratic
Party (CSSD),have turned the European Parliamentary (EP)
election into a bare-knuckled mudslinging campaign dominated
by domestic political issues, rather than issues pertaining
to Czech influence within the EU. The EP election campaign
in the Czech Republic has devolved into a dress rehearsal for
the upcoming October parliamentary elections. However, since
most Czechs are not familiar with the EP,s role or
influence, voter turnout on June 5-6 is expected to be lower
than the EU average (which was 45 percent in 2004). Still,
the results should also provide some insights into voter
sentiment leading up to the October elections. The Czech
cohort is too small to tip the balance in the 785-member EP,
but dramatic gains by CSSD could be a harbinger for domestic
elections in October. Four parties are likely to cross the
threshold for parliamentary representation. The CSSD, which
is part of the Party of European Socialists (PES),is
expected to gain a couple of seats, shifting Czech EP
representation from a strong European People,s Party (EPP)
faction (with which ODS associates) to a more PES-dominant
faction. Currently no Czech MEPs lead any of the key
committees within the European Parliament, and at the moment
this does not appear likely to change. End Summary.

Expected Low Turnout Favors More Disciplined Parties
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) According to pollsters and Czech political
analysts, Czech voter turnout may be lower than 28 percent,
which was the turnout rate during the country,s last and
only European Parliament election in 2004. The
traditionally-conservative and euroskeptic ODS and pro-EU
CSSD lead the group of four parties expected to maintain or
gain some of the Czech Republic,s 22 EP seats. According to
surveys conducted by STEM, the Czech Republic,s leading
polling agency, and CVVM, another reputable Czech polling
firm, ODS, CSSD, the unreformed Communist Party (KSCM) and
the Christian Democratic Party (KDU-CSL) are expected to win
5 percent or more (the minimum required threshold to gain a
seat),with ODS and CSSD each likely to claim between 20-30
percent of the vote.


3. (C) The most recent polling shows ODS slightly in the
lead. As there are currently only two Czech PES Members of
the European Parliament and 14 Czech EPP members, if ODS and
CSSD both garner 20-30 percent of the vote, this would
represent a substantial gain for PES as well as a substantial
loss for the EPP within the Czech Republic. However, given
the Czech Republic,s relatively-small size, this will mean a
shift of only six or seven seats in the 785-member EP and is
therefore unlikely to tip the balance in the EP, where the
EPP is currently the largest party by 78 seats. Past Czech
domestic elections have shown that CSSD has more uncommitted
supporters who are not disciplined about voting, making CSSD
vulnerable to low voter turnout. ODS, on the other hand, has
a more loyal base of supporters who tend to show up to the
polls. The STEM director and other political analysts agree
that higher voter turnout will most likely benefit CSSD and
lower voter turnout will benefit ODS. However, CSSD brought
foreign campaign consultants into their campaign early on,
resulting in a campaign that has a focused and well-presented
message. ODS,s campaign has not been as slick and ODS
decided only late in the game to bring in foreign
consultants.


4. (SBU) Some well-known personalities and current MEPs top
the list of popular candidates: journalist, former political
talk show host and independent candidate opposed to Lisbon
Treaty ratification Jana Bobosikova, experienced EU
politician and ODS heavyweight Jan Zahradil and career
diplomat Jana Hybaskova. According to STEM, the Communists,
whose support base consists of a loyal older generation that
always goes to the polls combined with a significant number
of protest voters, are expected to maintain three to four of
their six seats in the EP. Czech right-wing extremists from
the Worker,s Party (DS) and the National Party (NS) are not
expected to surpass the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary
representation, garnering about 0.9 percent of the vote each.
The newly-created Euro-skeptic Czech branch of Libertas,
created by current MEP Vladimir Zelezny, also appears
unlikely to win a seat.

Domestic Politics Dominate EP Election Campaign
-------------- --


5. (SBU) The independent candidates and smaller parties such

PRAGUE 00000306 002 OF 002


as Hybaskova,s European Democrats have focused their
campaign messages on EU topics such as energy security and
regional development. The dominant parties, however, are
staying parochial. The fall of Prime Minister Mirek
Topolanek,s government in a vote of no confidence on March
24 triggered a political crisis that the ODS and CSSD, along
with President Klaus, temporarily resolved by forming an
interim technocratic government under Prime Minister Jan
Fischer which is expected to lead the country until early
parliamentary elections this October.


6. (C) Both ODS and CSSD view the EP elections as a dress
rehearsal for October. The CSSD is looking to maintain the
momentum it gained after it crushed ODS in the October 2008
regional and Senate elections, and ODS is trying to recover
from its defeat. CSSD leader Jiri Paroubek has compared the
EP elections to the first half of a soccer game, stating that
"once you,re behind in the first half it,s difficult to
catch up and win during the second half". With this in mind,
both ODS, and CSSD,s campaign messages have been limited to
generalities about Czech influence in the EU and focused more
on internal Czech political issues such as health care fees,
pensions, who supports or does not support the Lisbon Treaty,
and whether or not the Topolanek government did well at the
helm of the EU.

Main Parties Pulling No Punches
--------------


7. (SBU) Aside from the mostly internal focus of the EP
campaign, both ODS and CSSD had pulled no punches going after
each other. CSSD has relentlessly criticized Topolanek,s
leadership, and has campaign billboards featuring a photo of
Topolanek and next to a photo of former President Bush,
attempting to make Topolanek look like a Bush lackey and link
ODS with the economic policies of the Bush administration,
which CSSD blames for the Czech Republic,s economic
slowdown. ODS also favors bashing its arch rival over
promoting its own plans, funding a billboard campaign that
shows a sharp-looking Topolanek next to an unflattering photo
of Paroubek that plays on the emotions of voters with the
words "solutions vs. fear".


8. (SBU) Two weeks ago, an egg-throwing campaign coordinated
on Facebook by young Czechs started when an estimated 1,000
anti-CSSD activists attended a CSSD political rally in Prague
and hurled hundreds of eggs at CSSD leader Paroubek; some of
the eggs were reportedly hard boiled. The egg-throwing
campaign has captivated the Czech media, drawing attention
away from the EP elections and toward the battle for
political leverage between CSSD and ODS. Paroubek and CSSD
leadership accused the ODS of organizing the egg-throwing
campaign, a charge ODS adamantly denies. The perpetrators say
they are motivated by Paroubek,s arrogant and populist
rhetoric, and some political commentators argued that this is
a result of CSSD,s inability to connect with younger voters.

Tough Tactics A Precursor of Things to Come
--------------


9. (C) Comment: If CSSD is able to mobilize its voters as
it did during the October 2008 regional and Senate elections
and increase its seat count within the European Parliament
from two to eight or nine seats, it will seek to capitalize
on these increases going into the October 2009 parliamentary
elections. A mediocre CSSD showing, even amid a low turnout,
would be a disappointment to CSSD and could re-energize ODS,
which has been reeling in the wake of last year,s election
defeats and loss of the March no-confidence vote. If the ODS
suffers another dramatic loss, the party may well decide to
replace its party leadership ahead of the next elections.
However, the possible changes in the Czech cohort are
unlikely to cause a shift in the party balance within the
larger European Parliament, where the EPP currently holds a
majority by 78 seats. Domestically, whatever the final
results, the tough campaign tactics and rhetoric of the EP
campaign are unfortunate precursors of the parliamentary
elections and will intensify as October draws near. Former
President Havel warned on June 1 that the increasing
bitterness that currently characterizes Czech politics could
further estrange Czech society from engaging in politics.
End Comment.
Thompson-Jones