A/S FRIED AND EU POLITICAL DIRECTORS' TROIKA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRAGUE 000027 SENSITIVE SIPDIS EUR/ERA WLUCAS, EUR/CE FOR ATRATENSEK E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2014 TAGS: EUN EZ EG PGOV PREL ZI SO SU CD SUBJECT: A/S FRIED AND EU POLITICAL DIRECTORS' TROIKA DISCUSS MIDEAST, BALKANS, AFRICA AND GUANTANAMO DETAINEES REF: A. PRAGUE 24 ¶B. STATE 1985 ¶C. 08 BRUSSELS 1774 PRAGUE 00000027 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On January 9 Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried met in troika format (Czech EU Presidency and following Swedish Presidency, European Commission, and European Council Secretariat) at the Political Director level. The discussion primarily focused on the Middle East and the Western Balkans, although EU troika comments on Africa (DRC, Sudan/Chad, Somalia) and Guantanamo Detainees were also of note. The informal luncheon discussion with the EU 27 on Russia and Afghanistan is being reported septel. End Summary. -------------- Israeli-Palestinian Peace - Agree on Need for Durable Ceasefire -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Czech Political Director Martin Povejsil kicked off the troika discussion highlighting EU concern for the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and civilian casualties, while noting the need to come quickly to a durable ceasefire. Povejsil commented on the particular need to improve the border security, especially to address smuggling. He noted that the EU has offered to redeploy a monitoring mission to Rafah, but that this offer has not been accepted so far. He also noted that the Egyptians appear particularly reluctant to have a foreign monitoring force on its border, and that it was important to strike the right balance between Egyptian tolerance and Israeli confidence. European Council Secretariat Representative Robert Cooper noted that as Palestinian civilian casualties mount, HAMAS continues to gain ground against Israel in its "propaganda war." A/S Fried responded to these comments by noting the intensive and personal engagement of Secretary Rice to help address the current situation and achieve a durable ceasefire that ends the rocketing, and not simply the appearance of a ceasefire. He then went on to emphasize the need to address the smuggling into Gaza and the significant role of Egypt in ongoing negotiations between HAMAS and Israel. -------------- Lebanon and Syria -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On Lebanon, Povejsil commented that the EU would hate to see this dispute between Gaza and Israel expand to Lebanon again, given the "polarizing effect" this could have on the broader region. A/S Fried noted that it is particularly interesting that Hizbollah quickly denied responsibility for the rocket attacks on Northern Israel on January 7 and that Lebanese public opinion does not appear to be inflamed at the moment. With respect to Syria, Povejsil commented that it could exert decisive influence over Hamas, and hopes Syria will encourage HAMAS to refrain from shelling. Syria is increasingly on the EU agenda and while there has been movement toward signing the frozen EU Association Agreement with Syria, the Czech EU presidency intends to proceed "cautiously." Povejsil stated that the EU does not plan to "grant something for nothing" and they are specifically looking for Syria to assume a constructive role in regional affairs. A/S Fried reiterated USG concern that while Syria has made pledges, it has done very little of significance. Fried urged the EU to await concrete action before moving forward on the Association Agreement. -------------- Iran - EU Urges USG to Pay Attention to How We Deliver Our Message -------------- ¶4. (C) A/S Fried noted our appreciation that in November the EU adopted regulations implementing the Common Position on PRAGUE 00000027 002.2 OF 004 UNSCR 1803, while also noting that time has not been working in the international community's favor. He urged the EU to think about what bigger "carrots and sticks" we may be able to offer as well as what would be required of the international community if Iran obtains nuclear weapons. Czech PolDir Povejsil noted that Iran has been in a "non-responsive mode," which he anticipates will last at least until the new USG administration takes office. Robert Cooper noted that, "How the next administration delivers its message will be very important." He also stated, "Freelancing (by unofficial self-appointed intermediaries) is problematic," and warned that unless the USG is clear about its message, there could be confusion in Tehran caused by third parties purporting to carry the official view. Swedish Political Director Bjorn Lyrvall cited the importance of working this issue multilaterally and urged that we look at a new push within the UN to get Russia and China on board. A/S Fried responded that utilizing the UN is useful when there are new combined policies to advance, but he did not agree that those conditions currently existed. Cooper acknowledged this sentiment and also noted that while Russia has engaged Iran, "their interests in Iran vary." According to Cooper, as exports from Europe to Iran have steadily decreased, the exports from China have steadily increased. Sanctions do not go over well with European businesses, especially when China is not on board. -------------- The Western Balkans - Kosovo, Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Both the EU and U.S. concurred that 2008 was a critically important year for the Balkans, and while much work remains, developments in the region exceeded expectations. The EU gave much credit for this state of affairs, particularly with respect to the recognition of Kosovo's independence, to the direct engagement of A/S Fried. Povejsil noted that EULEX passed its first test (in north Mitrovica),and more needs to be done to kick start economic development, a point echoed by EU Commission Representative Karel Kovanda. Kovanda also added that the Commission is doing a study of the prospects for social and economic development in Kosovo, which will be released in the fall. A/S Fried made the point that the situation in Kosovo will not get better on its own and thus we need to keep pressing forward, particularly with respect to having EULEX take on the tough tasks of borders, customs and police. He also conveyed the point that ICR Feith and EULEX Head of Mission De Kermabon need to work cooperatively. Robert Cooper noted this point. ¶6. (C) Bosnia: The EU stated its general concern that Bosnia is far from genuine integration. Povejsil also noted that EU enlargement remains a sensitive issue within the EU and "no real push is possible in this area until Lisbon Treaty question marks are addressed." The EU is working to advance visa liberalization in order to increase contact and orientation of the Balkans toward the EU. Povejsil also noted that with the upcoming Peace Implementation Council scheduled for early March, there should be a transfer of increased responsibility and authority to the Bosnian leadership. He added that Dayton was an excuse for the leaders to do little or nothing. Fried noted that the USG view is that the five-plus-two conditions need to be met, without cutting corners, before the OHR is closed down. Kovanda emphasized that we must keep pressing on implementation of the Prud/Odzak agreement if we want the post-OHR phase to get off on the right foot. Furthermore, Kovanda said that while the Commission was looking for ways to facilitate the movement of people, it discovered that about a million Croatian passports had been distributed in BiH. Cooper suggested that, if true, DG Enlargment take that up with Zagreb. A/S Fried said it was indicative of Croatian ambivalence with respect to Bosnia. Fried encouraged more support for moderate Bosniaks and was bluntly critical of PRAGUE 00000027 003.2 OF 004 Republica Srpska leader Dodik and Bosniak member of the Presidency of BiH Silajdzic. Fried indicated that in his last meeting with Silajdzic, which he characterized as "alarming," Silajdzic expressed his opinion that he wanted things to get worse in the Balkans so that the entire system would have to be remade. ¶7. (SBU) Serbia: A/S Fried commented that while we all want Serbia to recognize its future is in Europe, Serbia also needs to understand that EU tolerance is not unlimited. According to Fried, Serbian President Tadic needs to know he cannot reopen the question of Kosovo status; hopefully the International Court of Justice decision will come out right on this question. ¶8. (SBU) Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania: Both sides agreed that Macedonia and Greece have complicated matters by making the name issue political. Highlighting the EU accession fatigue setting in, Swedish PolDir Lyrvall noted that there is now the EU application from Montenegro, which the French accepted last month. He also noted that Albania and Serbia are likely to be next in the queue. Injecting a word of caution, Fried commented that "benign Albanian nationalism" cannot be taken for granted, given the upsurge in tension in Albanian politics. Fried closed out the discussion on the Balkans by noting that "enlargement" is perhaps one of the best ways to manage Serbian behavior for the better. -------------- Africa - DRC, Somalia, Sudan, Chad, and Zimbabwe -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Democratic Republic of Congo: Czech PolDir Povejsil made clear that at the EU Foreign Ministerial level consensus does not exist to send an EU force to the Congo. He noted that EU battlegroups had been discounted and the required troops "just don't exist." According to Povejsil, the way ahead will be for EU member states, that choose to do so, to increase their involvement via support to MONUC, with maybe a "light complement" of EU forces on the ground. Council Secretariat Representative Cooper added that while the UN SYG requested a bridging force from the EU, recent statements of UN Special Envoy Obasanjo did not indicate such a need. Cooper noted that there was a lot of concern about the functioning of MONUC, as well. Commission Representative Kovanda advocated supporting the ongoing talks between President Kabila and rebel leader Nkunda, and he made reference to the work of the EUSEC (EU advisory and assistance mission for security reform) in the DRC. ¶10. (C) Somalia: Swedish PolDir Lyrvall welcomed the establishment of the Combined Task Force 151 and sought coordination, including intelligence sharing, with the EU's ESDP mission "Atalanta" to help address the issue of piracy. A/S Fried said the Contact Group on Somali Piracy, meeting the week of January 12 at the UN, would address coordination. A/S Fried highlighted the international law issue of what to do with captured pirates (who assumes responsibility for them, where are they held, who prosecutes, evidentiary requirements, etc.),while commenting that Legal Adviser Bellinger is working on this. The EU noted that it has already run into this difficulty with a German attempted seizure of suspected pirates, and were consulting with Kenyan authorities about jurisdictional matters generally. Robert Cooper said an international framework was needed, and A/S Fried agreed that ad hoc solutions were to be avoided. ¶11. (SBU) Sudan and Chad: A/S Fried highlighted some of the potential flashpoints, such as the slow deployment of UNAMID, as well as the need to set an election date. Povejsil concurred that this situation has been frustrating, although the EU has seen some slight indications of improvements, such as the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Chad and Sudan and a decrease in border attacks, which the EU attributes to the increased patrols. Lyrvall also reminded PRAGUE 00000027 004.2 OF 004 the group of the work remaining to advance the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). ¶12. (SBU) Zimbabwe: The entire group acknowledged that Zimbabwe is a nightmare of a failed state; fortunately, infrastructure remains and it may be able to recover quickly, if the leadership shifts. Fried acknowledged that if the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) does agree to a power-sharing agreement with Mugabe, we will need to support such a deal; although if this breaks down, the international community will need to step in quickly to assist. Povejsil noted that Mugabe's government is doing "almost nothing" to address the cholera problem, besides blaming the EU for being the root of the problem. Depressingly, the EU anticipates "it's Mugabe for the foreseeable future," as the African leaders (SADC, AU, and South Africa) do not want outsiders to assist, yet these leaders do not act to apply pressure for Mugabe to step down. -------------- Detainees - EU Will Discuss, but... -------------- ¶13. (C) A/S Fried noted Legal Adviser Bellinger has worked hard to address this issue and he noted with appreciation Portuguese FM Amado's initiative for the EU to discuss how to assist with the resettlement of Guantanamo detainees. Czech PolDir Povejsil made clear that this topic will be introduced at the FM level (at the January GAERC),as the EU wants to have this discussion at a top level. Povejsil went on to caution that accepting detainees for resettlement likely would be politically difficult with EU member state domestic audiences, as well as from the legislative/judicial perspective. He also referenced the bilateral discussion on January 8 between Fried and DFM Tomas Pojar, which was reported reftel. (Note: Pojar made clear that the GOCR does not plan to accept detainees, although the Czechs would be willing to facilitate discussion of this topic within the EU. End Note.) ¶14. (U) A/S Fried cleared this cable. Graber