CZECH EU PRESIDENCY VIEWS ON THE BALKANS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000228 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CVIS EUN EZ PGOV PREL XG SUBJECT: CZECH EU PRESIDENCY VIEWS ON THE BALKANS REF: PRAGUE 24 PRAGUE 00000228 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Czech MFA South and South East Europe Director Tomas Szunyog reviewed the Czech EU Presidency's progress in the Western Balkans. According to Szunyog lack of EU consensus has been impeding progress. The Czechs expect few significant advances during the remainder of the Czech EU Presidency, but anticipate some small steps forward may still be made. End Summary. -------------- ROADBLOCKS FOR THE WESTERN BALKANS -------------- ¶2. (U) On April 15, emboffs met with Czech MFA South and South East Europe Director Tomas Szunyog to discuss EU enlargement in the Western Balkans. According to Szunyog, there are four major challenges impeding EU efforts to advance enlargement in the Western Balkans: 1) The Lisbon Treaty has still not been ratified and EU member states are reluctant to move forward on enlargement without Lisbon in place. 2) In light of the economic and financial crisis members are reluctant to proceed with enlargement. 3) Other key EU priorities (i.e. Middle East, Afghanistan) have moved the Balkans, which are stable in comparison to these hot spots, down on the agenda. 4) European Parliament elections are scheduled for June and action on most issues will be suspended until after the elections. He added that progress may also have to wait until after the German elections scheduled for September. EUR Assistant Secretary Fried heard a similar assessment from DFM Tomas Pojar during his visit to Prague in January 2009 (ref A). At that time, Pojar complained of EU inertia due to enlargement fatigue. -------------- SMALL STEPS: PROGRESS ON MEMBERSHIP FOR MONTENEGRO AND ALBANIA -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Czech Presidency still hopes for some progress with regard to the EU membership applications of Montenegro and Albania. Montenegro's EU membership application should be passed to the European Commission (for the traditional review) at the next EU ministerial-level meeting, which happens to be the EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council in Luxembourg on April 23rd. This is a long awaited, but welcome development for the Czechs, as Montenegro's application was not passed to the Commission earlier because of objections by the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, France, and Belgium. Albanian Prime Minister Sali Berisha is scheduled ;to submit an EU membership application on behalf of Albania on April 28th. (Note: This application comes exactly two months prior to Albanian elections. End Note.) -------------- VISA LIBERALIZATION FOR SOME -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Though Germany and the Nordic countries remain skeptical, according to Szunyog there is a general understanding among EU members that visa liberalization should be granted for at least some of the Western Balkans countries soon. The second technical report is due out in early May on the readiness of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania for visa liberalization. The report will most likely highlight Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia as the most technically prepared, in that order. Bosnia and Albania are likely to have a less favorable report. In Szunyog's opinion, the decision to grant visa liberalization should be a technical one, but he fully anticipates politics will also be a factor in the EU deliberations. There is a concern among some EU members, for example, about the appearance of allowing Serbia to get in, but not Albania. Though the EU does not mean for visa liberalization to be seen as a conciliation prize, it is often seen politically as a way to make up for a lack of movement in the EU membership process. Most likely, only some of the countries will be granted visa liberalization, but even here there is a concern that this would lead to increased "passport shopping" in which citizens of one Balkan country apply for passports in neighboring countries. -------------- CROATIA: PROGRESS STALLED -------------- PRAGUE 00000228 002.2 OF 003 ¶5. (U) The Czech Presidency set a goal of closing ten accession chapters for Croatia during its EU Presidency. However, none have been closed thus far, due mostly to ongoing disputes with Slovenia. The Croatia Enlargement Conference, postponed to April 24th, has now been postponed again, due to the current stalemate. With these postponements, it becomes less likely that Croatia will finish its roadmap goal of closing all chapters by the end of ¶2009. ¶6. (SBU) The main problem with Croatia moving forward with its chapters remains the border dispute with Slovenia. Szunyog bemoaned the fact that they have not made any notable progress since September 2008. Both sides have accepted the idea to have a group of experts mediate, but the terms of reference and composition of the group remains unresolved. Croatia has municipal elections scheduled in May, so it is unlikely that immediate progress will come on EU enlargement before then. EU Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn met with both sides on April 22 and unfortunately it appears these discussion did not go well. As for other unresolved Slovenia-Croatia issues (nuclear waste and Ljubliana Bank nationalization),Szunyog believes these will be relatively easy to resolve once the border dispute is solved. However, the Ljubliana Bank nationalization case could become more complicated, as Belgium has interest in the matter. Additionally, the Dutch are concerned over the missing documents needed in the ICTY case of Ante Gotovina. Croatia has maintained it cannot find these documents or that they do not exist. -------------- BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: VISA FREE TRAVEL NOT COMING SOON, FMS URGE ACCELERATED REFORM -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Even though Bosnia has floated the idea of a visa free region for the Western Balkans, this idea will not likely be accepted. In regards to technical preparedness, Bosnia is far behind its neighbors. Szunyog also pointed out that Bosnia is not as stable politically as some of the other countries seeking visa liberalization. Note: Czech, Swedish and French FMs Karel Schwarzenberg, Carl Bildt, and Bernard Kuchner recently visited Sarajevo where they urged Bosnia to speed up reform efforts. End Note. -------------- KOSOVO: HOLDING PATTERN UNTIL AFTER ICJ -------------- ¶8. (SBU) As Kosovo is not yet recognized by all EU member states it is impossible to start negotiating visa free liberalization with them at this time. However, Kosovo continues to work on passport, border and visa reforms. At the recent Gymnich, EU foreign ministers brainstormed about how to enlarge and fully staff their EU civilian missions. The main challenge of getting enough troops for EULEX remains merging and coordinating the many different national-based systems of all member states. Kosovo's current holding pattern boils down to many member countries waiting for the ICJ decision before acting and/or commenting further about Kosovo. -------------- SERBIA: DUTCH STILL WAITING FOR FULL COMPLIANCE, SHOWING SMALL SIGNS OF FLEXIBILITY -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The Dutch continue to block everything regarding Serbia, demanding full ICTY compliance as a first step. According to Szunyog, recently Spain asked the Dutch to be more flexible on Serbia, and the Dutch replied, "If Spain recognized Kosovo, we'll consider it". There is hope, however, that the Dutch may be willing to be more flexible to the idea of visa liberalization or the interim trade agreement. A new report on Serbia is due out June 4th. It will most likely be positive, but the extradition of Ratko Mladic will remain the key problem. -------------- MONTENEGRO: WAITING FOR A NEW COMMISSION -------------- PRAGUE 00000228 003.2 OF 003 ¶10. (SBU) With Montenegro's EU application expected to formally pass to the Commission April 23, things look good for Montenegro on the surface. In order to push the application through, an agreement was made that no work would be done on this until after there is a new Commission in the second half of 2010. Realistically, Szunyog fears not much may happen until the Hungarian EU Presidency in the spring of ¶2011. -------------- MACEDONIA: GREECE CAN'T VETO VISA LIBERALIZATION -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Fortunately for Macedonia, visa liberalization is decided by EU members according to a majority vote, and no one country has veto rights. In addition, Macedonia is leading the Western Balkan countries in technical preparedness, which makes it the most likely to be ready for visa liberalization by the start of 2010. Unfortunately for Macedonia, there is no sign of a compromise on the name issue with Greece, which has been blocking negotiation dates from being scheduled and accession chapters from opening. The Czech EU Presidency has encouraged Macedonia to compromise with Greece soon, while they have the domestic political capital to do so, and three years to prove to their constituency that the compromise paid off. There is an EU progress report due out in October, but if the Greeks are not satisfied, Szunyog opined, nothing will happen. Szunyog believes there is only one way for Macedonia to move forward and beyond the name dispute, and that is to become Northern Macedonia. He worries otherwise that in five years Macedonia will not exist, and will be divided between Kosovo and Bulgaria. He points toward the evidence that total voter turn out in the recent second round elections was only 42 percent, with ethnic Albanians hardly participating. -------------- ALBANIA: DOCUMENTATION "REALLY A MESS" -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Szunyog was not optimistic with regard to Albania's chances to qualify for visa liberalization this year. Szunyog commented that Albania was "really a mess," with an estimated 700,000 to 900,000 completely undocumented people. These undocumented people, as well as people dually documented under similar names, complicate elections and voter lists. Albanian authorities are just beginning to issue proper IDs and passports to the general public. There are currently 3.1 million people in the new database, which includes finger prints, and when completed, will represent a huge improvement. ¶13. (SBU) COMMENT: The Western Balkans continue to have a friend in the Czech Republic, but the Czechs have not been able to accomplish as much as they had hoped given the current challenges within the Western Balkan countries and within the EU. The next three presidencies (Sweden, Spain, and Belgium) unfortunately, are not expected to push as enthusiastically as the Czechs on EU enlargement and thus there could well be an 18 month slow down of progress until the Hungarian EU Presidency in the spring of 2011. Thompson-Jones