CZECH GOVERNMENT FALLS, UNCERTAINTY AHEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000165 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV EZ SUBJECT: CZECH GOVERNMENT FALLS, UNCERTAINTY AHEAD REF: PRAGUE 159 Classified By: CDA MARY THOMPSON-JONES FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: After 26 months in power, the embattled Topolanek government lost a vote of no-confidence in the Lower Chamber of the parliament on March 24. The vote's result was uncertain until the very end, but 101 lawmakers, the minimum required by the Czech constitution, finally voted after a nearly four-hour debate to topple the government. The reasons behind Topolanek's downfall are many, but they boil down to domestic political jockeying, personal animosities, and power plays. President Klaus, whose role is normally largely ceremonial, now assumes significant powers and will determine the course of domestic political events until the next parliamentary elections, which could take place earlier than the regular due date of June 2010. Although all sides have stated that the Topolanek government should be allowed to rule at least until the end of the Czech EU Presidency, the government's fall will be disruptive in varying degrees to the country's domestic, foreign, and EU priorities. We will report septel our analysis of the impact on the Czech EU presidency. END SUMMARY. -------------- A CLIFF-HANGER VOTE -------------- ¶2. (C) On March 24, the government of PM Mirek Topolanek lost a vote of no-confidence. This was the opposition's fifth attempt to topple Topolanek, and it was successful thanks to four crucial votes of the so-called rebel MPs from both the Green Party and the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) of PM Topolanek. While the Czech Republic has had a series of weak governments thanks to the country's fractured parliament, this was the first time in the country's post-1989 history that a government lost a vote of no-confidence. The final vote on March 24 was 101 to 96, with the opposition gaining exactly the minimum number of votes required by the Czech constitution to oust a government. ¶3. (C) In the days leading up to the no-confidence vote, it was clear that the vote would be close. As reported in ref A, this was the most serious challenge the Topolanek government has faced in its 26 months of existence. Several times, the momentum changed, with Topolanek making a big push on March 23 and 24. In his March 23 press conference, Topolanek was clearly on attack. He was also meeting with the various MP rebels until the very last moment. His efforts appeared somewhat successful, when one of the ODS rebels, Juraj Raninec, announced a few hours before the March 24 parliamentary session that he would not vote against the government. ¶4. (C) At the beginning of the no-confidence debate, Topolanek exuded confidence, flashing big grins and thumbs-up signs. This led some reporters to conclude prematurely that the Topolanek government would survive. Even the ODS MPs seemed to rally, and one of the embassy's best contacts within the ODS parliamentary caucus told emboff that the no-confidence motion would fail. It is unclear whether Topolanek had a reason for this initial optimism and something did not go according to plan, or whether this was just typical Topolanek -- a politician full of bravura, brashness, and arrogance to the very end. It is possible that Topolanek thought he had a deal with the two former Green MPs, Olga Zubova and Vera Jakubkova. Both met with Topolanek immediately before the no-confidence session, and Jakubkova publicly admitted that she had presented Topolanek with a plan that would allow her to support the government. ¶5. (C) Toward the end of the debate, however, the tide turned and the atmosphere in the Lower Chamber changed when the rebel MPs took to the podium. One after the other, they delivered speeches full of scorching criticism against the government and their former parties. Only ODS rebel-in-chief, Vlastimil Tlusty, whose personal vendetta against Topolanek has driven many of his destructive actions over the past two years (ref A),did not speak and did not reveal how he would vote. His vote and the votes of three other rebels -- Jan Schwippel (ODS),Zubova, and Jakubkova -- were sufficient, however, to sink the Topolanek government. Note: Following the March 24 vote, the ODS parliamentary caucus expelled Tlusty from its ranks. End Note. -------------- WHY HAS THE CUP RUN OVER? -------------- ¶6. (C) In a popular Sunday political talk show on March 22, Tlusty stated that "the cup has run over" with regard to the PRAGUE 00000165 002 OF 002 Topolanek government. Tlusty then proceeded to list a whole host of reasons, many of which were repeated during the March 24 parliamentary debate: deeply unpopular reforms, especially of the health system; corruption; interference in the justice system and the media; and an arrogant governing style. All of these complaints have merit, but they are not new. In the case of corruption, interference in justice and media, and arrogance, they are also not unique to the Topolanek government. ¶7. (C) Similarly, while issues like missile defense (MD) and the global economic crisis were mentioned during the parliamentary debate, they are not the causes of Topolanek's downfall. Indeed, the economic crisis, as well as the Czech EU Presidency, would have been important reasons for keeping the Topolanek government in place. Rather, as reported in ref A, the reasons behind the most recent effort to oust Topolanek have more to do with domestic politics, power plays, and jockeying in advance of upcoming elections for the European Parliament and Czech national elections. A critical mass of personal animosity also played a role here. In addition, the effort was apparently driven, at least in part, by President Klaus, who will now exercise significant influence over the domestic political scene. -------------- NEXT STEPS -------------- ¶8. (C) In accordance with the Czech constitution, Topolanek and his cabinet are required to submit their resignation to the President "without delay." Topolanek will likely do that on March 26, because he is scheduled to be in Strasbourg on March 25. How the events unfold after Topolanek's resignation is unclear at the moment, but they will be largely determined by President Klaus. Following the March 24 vote, Klaus refused to comment on the situation. He issued a short statement on his internet site, which states: "Further developments will proceed in a standard, constitutional manner." In light of the opposition's repeated statements that they are prepared to allow the Topolanek government to continue to rule as an "outgoing government" ("vlada v demisi"),it is probable that Klaus will ask Topolanek and his cabinet to remain in place temporarily. If Klaus indeed proceeds as expected, Topolanek would continue to rule until Klaus names the next Prime Minister and, on this person's recommendation, the next cabinet. Note: The constitution does not impose any deadlines on the President, so the timing of when Klaus would name the next Prime Minister is unclear. End Note. ¶9. (C) All parties have expressed their preference for early elections, but it is too soon to predict whether they will be able to translate their public statements into an agreement on early elections, especially their timing. A law on early elections must be approved by a constitutional majority in the Lower Chamber, or 120 votes. Based on a discussion with a key legal expert in the parliament, the earliest possible date for the elections would be October or November. In light of this, Topolanek's March 23 statement that he would press for elections in the summer was unrealistic. His motivation, however, is clear: he will want elections as soon as possible to ensure that he will not lose the popularity boost he received from the EU Presidency. -------------- COMMENT: THE END OF TOPOLANEK'S FAIRY TALE -------------- ¶10. (C) The parliamentary debate prior to the no-confidence vote touched on almost everything, including Czech fairy tales. And some could liken the no-confidence vote to the "Emperor Has No Clothes" fable. The Topolanek government lost its majority in the parliament some time ago and no longer had the ability to pass key legislation. However, even this embattled government provided some measure of stability and direction to the country, especially now during the unfolding economic crisis and the EU Presidency. As the country enters a period of domestic political uncertainty, it is unclear whether amidst their deep animosities leading Czech politicians, who have been unable to agree on almost anything over the past 26 months, will be able to agree on a course forward for their country. It is likely, that in this extremely charged atmosphere, domestic matters, including the economy and reforms, as well as foreign and security priorities, among them MD and foreign deployments, will at least temporarily take a back seat to politics. Thompson-Jones