CZECH SOCIAL DEMOCRATS OFFER FEW SURPRISES AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000160

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH SOCIAL DEMOCRATS OFFER FEW SURPRISES AT
PARTY CONGRESS

REF: A. PRAGUE 134

B. 08 PRAGUE 758

C. PRAGUE DAILY MARCH 18 AND 19

Classified By: CDA MARY THOMPSON-JONES FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The March 20-22 congress of the Czech
Social Democrats (CSSD) was relatively uneventful, despite
the charged political atmosphere before the planned March 24
vote of no confidence. All but one candidate for the party's
top posts ran unopposed and were elected, although CSSD
chairman Jiri Paroubek's 74-percent mandate was probably
disappointing to him. While the congress was meant to be a
celebration of the fall 2008 electoral triumphs and a
kick-off for the European Parliament campaign, the mood at
the event seemed decidedly subdued. With the economic crisis
making itself felt in the Czech Republic, most speakers at
the congress focused on domestic issues. Nevertheless,
negative references to issues such as missile defense and
Czech deployments in Afghanistan signaled potential areas of
difference in the future. END SUMMARY.

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CSSD'S MANAGED DEMOCRACY
--------------


2. (C) On March 20-22, CSSD delegates from across the
country gathered in the Industrial Palace of the Prague fair
grounds to celebrate the party's successes in the October
2008 senate and regional elections and prepare the ground for
the European Parliament elections in June 2009 (ref A).
CSSD's party color - orange - dominated the huge exhibition
hall, and the congress slogan "Change and Hope" was visible
everywhere one looked. Political commentators were quick to
point out that "Freedom" used to be a part of the CSSD
slogan, but seemed to get lost at the party's congress and in
the party's internal proceedings. With the annual St.
Matthew's fair in full swing on the fair grounds, the setting
for the congress certainly had some surreal elements. It may
have also reminded some of the criminal underworld ties of
CSSD chairman Jiri Paroubek. Note: The fair grounds are
operated by the Kocka clan, a member of which was murdered
last October at a Paroubek book signing. End Note.


3. (C) The election of party leaders was to be the highlight
of the CSSD congress, but with one exception it was a routine
exercise of delegates affirming pre-determined results. In
the races for the chairman and six deputy chairmen, all
candidates were running unopposed. Even under these
favorable conditions, Paroubek garnered only 74 percent of
the vote. Several MPs told emboff that they were surprised
by this result, given Paroubek's undeniable efforts last fall
during the successful senate and regional elections. Indeed,
CSSD deputy chairman Zdenek Skromach, who was reelected with
87 percent of the vote, quipped -- only half jokingly -- that
he would be in deep trouble with the chairman because of his
much greater popularity. However, in a newspaper interview,
Paroubek assessed his 74 percent as a "strong mandate." One
Paroubek staffer told us that the chairman was relatively
happy with the result because 1) he significantly improved
his support over two years ago, when he won only a 58-percent
mandate; and 2) his 74 percent looked respectable compared to
PM Topolanek's 58 percent during the December 2008 ODS
congress (ref B). Of course, the fact that PM Topolanek
faced a formidable foe, Prague mayor Pavel Bem, in the ODS
contest went unmentioned.


4. (C) With nine candidates for the six deputy chairman
slots, it appeared initially that there would be at least
some competition in the second tier of CSSD leadership.
However, before balloting began, three candidates dutifully
withdrew their names, and democratic competition appeared to
be over. Five deputy chairmen were promptly elected in the
first round of voting: Bohuslav Sobotka (first deputy
chairman, 84 percent),Zdenek Skromach (87 percent),Lubomir
Zaoralek (75 percent),Milan Urban (74 percent),and Roman
Onderka (70 percent). The only excitement appeared in the
contest for the sixth deputy chairman slot, which CSSD
reserved for a woman. The sole candidate, Jana Vanhova,
failed to win reelection, largely because of her political
shenanigans in the Usti region of Northern Bohemia. Although
the congress held another election for the deputy chairwoman
slot, no candidate was able to win the required 50 percent or
more of the ballots. The delegates therefore punted and
asked the party's leadership to select the deputy chairwoman.

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DOMESTIC FOCUS BUT FOREIGN POLICY SIGNALS
--------------


PRAGUE 00000160 002 OF 003



5. (C) Domestic issues have always been CSSD's bread and
butter. Especially now, as the country's citizens begin to
feel the economic crisis' impact, CSSD is betting on an
agenda focused on social issues, including unemployment
assistance, value added tax (VAT) reductions on foodstuffs,
and elimination of the deeply unpopular health care
co-payments. Even President Klaus, who for the first time
addressed a CSSD congress, focused on the economic crisis.
However, Klaus counseled against alarmism with regard to the
economic crisis and called for responsibility on the part of
the local politicians. The majority of CSSD speakers, on the
other hand, signaled that the party will not be shy about
using the current economic problems as a political cudgel
against the Topolanek government. Many speakers also used the
congress as an opportunity to blast the Topolanek government
for the various scandals that have plagued the government
since its very inception. Since corruption is the reason
most frequently cited as being behind the no-confidence vote
on March 24, CSSD leaders made sure to remind their audience
of the many transgressions on the part of PM Topolanek and
his cabinet.


6. (C) The domestic focus did not overshadow foreign and
security policy matters completely. For example, Russian
deputy chairman of the Duma, Alexander Babakov, who was one
of the foreign guest speakers, denounced missile defense (MD)
and thanked CSSD for its negative stance on the issue.
CSSD's position on MD has been clear for some time, and the
party underscored its opposition to the U.S. proposal last
week when it forced the government to withdraw the two MD
agreements from the Lower Chamber (ref C). The CSSD congress
also approved a resolution by CSSD's shadow foreign minister,
Lubomir Zaoralek, which included the following statement on
MD: "In accordance with the majority opinion of citizens,
CSSD continues to oppose the stationing of the U.S. radar in
the Czech Republic, and is prepared to confirm without delay
this sovereign position by a vote in the Lower Chamber of the
Parliament."


7. (C) More troubling was the apparent hardening of CSSD's
position on Afghanistan deployments. At the end of the
congress, Paroubek announced the results of an internal party
poll on Afghanistan deployments, in which 82 percent of CSSD
respondents voted to end the Czech Republic's deployments in
Afghanistan; in case withdrawal would be impossible, 87
percent supported a dramatic reduction in the number of
deployed personnel, which currently stands at approximately

550. The Zaoralek foreign policy resolution adopted by the
CSSD congress also included the following statement on
Afghanistan: "CSSD is aware of the importance of joint
international efforts to limit unstable areas, terrorism, and
human rights abuses. However, joint military solutions must
be subject to critical analysis and discussion. The latest
example of Afghanistan shows that not all ills can be cured
by military means and that strategic decisions must be
decided multilaterally, with the participation of all key
actors."


8. With regard to the internal party poll, Chairman of the
Foreign Affairs Committee and a rising star in CSSD, Jan
Hamacek, had told us earlier that he was alarmed. Hamacek
saw the poll as having been tailored to elicit the "right"
responses from CSSD members. Note: Paroubek commissioned a
similar poll last spring on the issue of missile defense, and
unsurprisingly, obtained similarly stark results. End Note.
Another CSSD foreign policy expert, Antonin Seda, who serves
as deputy chairman of the Defense Committee, also complained
to us about the poll and expressed frustration with his
party's leadership, which routinely "ignores the experts" on
foreign and security policy issues. Seda added that the
Czech Republic's Afghanistan deployments should be safe for
another year (2010),but it would be impossible for the
government to up the numbers.

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THE MURKY NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE
--------------


9. (C) CSSD's March 20-22 congress was undoubtedly colored
by the upcoming March 24 vote of no-confidence. However, it
offered few insights into how the cliff-hanger vote may play
out. Even President Klaus, who is allegedly a key player in
the effort to topple Topolanek, was enigmatic and stated up
front that he would not comment on the current domestic
political situation. Interestingly, the majority of CSSD MPs
with whom emboffs discussed the no-confidence vote did not
believe that the government would fall. Michal Hasek, until
recently the chairman of the CSSD caucus in the Lower Chamber
and now the governor of Southern Moravia, explained that the
MPs' views were probably colored by the four previous failed

PRAGUE 00000160 003 OF 003


no-confidence votes. Even Hasek, however, did not wish to
predict tomorrow's results. Nevertheless, all of the
embassy's interlocutors have been clear on one point: that
it is Klaus, not Paroubek, who "holds the keys," to use
Hasek's words. Note: While CSSD MPs have doubted the
no-confidence motion, ODS MPs with whom emboffs spoke appear
also resigned to the fact that the government will fall on
March 24. These sentiments underscore the complete
unpredictability of the no-confidence vote's result. End
Note.

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COMMENT: PAROUBEK THE PRAGMATIST?
--------------


10. (C) CSSD's congress speeches were the usual stuff of
political campaign rallies. Full of slogans and attacks, the
speeches betrayed little new with regard to CSSD's future
direction. However, in the area of foreign policy, and
especially on MD and foreign deployments, CSSD is signaling
that it may take a harder line than it has in the past.
Nevertheless, many of our contacts and political commentators
have pointed out that Paroubek is a pragmatist, and once in
power, could prove to be more flexible. Many point to the
example of Paroubek's kindred spirit, Slovak PM Robert Fico,
who was also a guest at the CSSD congress. Elected on an
anti-reform platform, Fico moderated his views after he was
elected. In addition, Paroubek has already shown himself to
be quite pragmatic during his first term as prime minister
(2005-2006). He supported Czech deployments in Iraq and
Afghanistan, and continued U.S.-Czech discussions on missile
defense which started under his CSSD predecessors. However,
there may be limits to Paroubek's pragmatism in the future.
His openness to a more trans-Atlantic position on various
issues will depend on the composition of his government. If,
as some fear, Paroubek decides to rule with the Communists,
his foreign policy flexibility would be extremely
circumscribed.
Thompson-Jones