CZECH SOCIAL DEMOCRATS OFFER FEW SURPRISES AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000160 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV EZ SUBJECT: CZECH SOCIAL DEMOCRATS OFFER FEW SURPRISES AT PARTY CONGRESS REF: A. PRAGUE 134 ¶B. 08 PRAGUE 758 ¶C. PRAGUE DAILY MARCH 18 AND 19 Classified By: CDA MARY THOMPSON-JONES FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The March 20-22 congress of the Czech Social Democrats (CSSD) was relatively uneventful, despite the charged political atmosphere before the planned March 24 vote of no confidence. All but one candidate for the party's top posts ran unopposed and were elected, although CSSD chairman Jiri Paroubek's 74-percent mandate was probably disappointing to him. While the congress was meant to be a celebration of the fall 2008 electoral triumphs and a kick-off for the European Parliament campaign, the mood at the event seemed decidedly subdued. With the economic crisis making itself felt in the Czech Republic, most speakers at the congress focused on domestic issues. Nevertheless, negative references to issues such as missile defense and Czech deployments in Afghanistan signaled potential areas of difference in the future. END SUMMARY. -------------- CSSD'S MANAGED DEMOCRACY -------------- ¶2. (C) On March 20-22, CSSD delegates from across the country gathered in the Industrial Palace of the Prague fair grounds to celebrate the party's successes in the October 2008 senate and regional elections and prepare the ground for the European Parliament elections in June 2009 (ref A). CSSD's party color - orange - dominated the huge exhibition hall, and the congress slogan "Change and Hope" was visible everywhere one looked. Political commentators were quick to point out that "Freedom" used to be a part of the CSSD slogan, but seemed to get lost at the party's congress and in the party's internal proceedings. With the annual St. Matthew's fair in full swing on the fair grounds, the setting for the congress certainly had some surreal elements. It may have also reminded some of the criminal underworld ties of CSSD chairman Jiri Paroubek. Note: The fair grounds are operated by the Kocka clan, a member of which was murdered last October at a Paroubek book signing. End Note. ¶3. (C) The election of party leaders was to be the highlight of the CSSD congress, but with one exception it was a routine exercise of delegates affirming pre-determined results. In the races for the chairman and six deputy chairmen, all candidates were running unopposed. Even under these favorable conditions, Paroubek garnered only 74 percent of the vote. Several MPs told emboff that they were surprised by this result, given Paroubek's undeniable efforts last fall during the successful senate and regional elections. Indeed, CSSD deputy chairman Zdenek Skromach, who was reelected with 87 percent of the vote, quipped -- only half jokingly -- that he would be in deep trouble with the chairman because of his much greater popularity. However, in a newspaper interview, Paroubek assessed his 74 percent as a "strong mandate." One Paroubek staffer told us that the chairman was relatively happy with the result because 1) he significantly improved his support over two years ago, when he won only a 58-percent mandate; and 2) his 74 percent looked respectable compared to PM Topolanek's 58 percent during the December 2008 ODS congress (ref B). Of course, the fact that PM Topolanek faced a formidable foe, Prague mayor Pavel Bem, in the ODS contest went unmentioned. ¶4. (C) With nine candidates for the six deputy chairman slots, it appeared initially that there would be at least some competition in the second tier of CSSD leadership. However, before balloting began, three candidates dutifully withdrew their names, and democratic competition appeared to be over. Five deputy chairmen were promptly elected in the first round of voting: Bohuslav Sobotka (first deputy chairman, 84 percent),Zdenek Skromach (87 percent),Lubomir Zaoralek (75 percent),Milan Urban (74 percent),and Roman Onderka (70 percent). The only excitement appeared in the contest for the sixth deputy chairman slot, which CSSD reserved for a woman. The sole candidate, Jana Vanhova, failed to win reelection, largely because of her political shenanigans in the Usti region of Northern Bohemia. Although the congress held another election for the deputy chairwoman slot, no candidate was able to win the required 50 percent or more of the ballots. The delegates therefore punted and asked the party's leadership to select the deputy chairwoman. -------------- DOMESTIC FOCUS BUT FOREIGN POLICY SIGNALS -------------- PRAGUE 00000160 002 OF 003 ¶5. (C) Domestic issues have always been CSSD's bread and butter. Especially now, as the country's citizens begin to feel the economic crisis' impact, CSSD is betting on an agenda focused on social issues, including unemployment assistance, value added tax (VAT) reductions on foodstuffs, and elimination of the deeply unpopular health care co-payments. Even President Klaus, who for the first time addressed a CSSD congress, focused on the economic crisis. However, Klaus counseled against alarmism with regard to the economic crisis and called for responsibility on the part of the local politicians. The majority of CSSD speakers, on the other hand, signaled that the party will not be shy about using the current economic problems as a political cudgel against the Topolanek government. Many speakers also used the congress as an opportunity to blast the Topolanek government for the various scandals that have plagued the government since its very inception. Since corruption is the reason most frequently cited as being behind the no-confidence vote on March 24, CSSD leaders made sure to remind their audience of the many transgressions on the part of PM Topolanek and his cabinet. ¶6. (C) The domestic focus did not overshadow foreign and security policy matters completely. For example, Russian deputy chairman of the Duma, Alexander Babakov, who was one of the foreign guest speakers, denounced missile defense (MD) and thanked CSSD for its negative stance on the issue. CSSD's position on MD has been clear for some time, and the party underscored its opposition to the U.S. proposal last week when it forced the government to withdraw the two MD agreements from the Lower Chamber (ref C). The CSSD congress also approved a resolution by CSSD's shadow foreign minister, Lubomir Zaoralek, which included the following statement on MD: "In accordance with the majority opinion of citizens, CSSD continues to oppose the stationing of the U.S. radar in the Czech Republic, and is prepared to confirm without delay this sovereign position by a vote in the Lower Chamber of the Parliament." ¶7. (C) More troubling was the apparent hardening of CSSD's position on Afghanistan deployments. At the end of the congress, Paroubek announced the results of an internal party poll on Afghanistan deployments, in which 82 percent of CSSD respondents voted to end the Czech Republic's deployments in Afghanistan; in case withdrawal would be impossible, 87 percent supported a dramatic reduction in the number of deployed personnel, which currently stands at approximately ¶550. The Zaoralek foreign policy resolution adopted by the CSSD congress also included the following statement on Afghanistan: "CSSD is aware of the importance of joint international efforts to limit unstable areas, terrorism, and human rights abuses. However, joint military solutions must be subject to critical analysis and discussion. The latest example of Afghanistan shows that not all ills can be cured by military means and that strategic decisions must be decided multilaterally, with the participation of all key actors." ¶8. With regard to the internal party poll, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee and a rising star in CSSD, Jan Hamacek, had told us earlier that he was alarmed. Hamacek saw the poll as having been tailored to elicit the "right" responses from CSSD members. Note: Paroubek commissioned a similar poll last spring on the issue of missile defense, and unsurprisingly, obtained similarly stark results. End Note. Another CSSD foreign policy expert, Antonin Seda, who serves as deputy chairman of the Defense Committee, also complained to us about the poll and expressed frustration with his party's leadership, which routinely "ignores the experts" on foreign and security policy issues. Seda added that the Czech Republic's Afghanistan deployments should be safe for another year (2010),but it would be impossible for the government to up the numbers. -------------- THE MURKY NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE -------------- ¶9. (C) CSSD's March 20-22 congress was undoubtedly colored by the upcoming March 24 vote of no-confidence. However, it offered few insights into how the cliff-hanger vote may play out. Even President Klaus, who is allegedly a key player in the effort to topple Topolanek, was enigmatic and stated up front that he would not comment on the current domestic political situation. Interestingly, the majority of CSSD MPs with whom emboffs discussed the no-confidence vote did not believe that the government would fall. Michal Hasek, until recently the chairman of the CSSD caucus in the Lower Chamber and now the governor of Southern Moravia, explained that the MPs' views were probably colored by the four previous failed PRAGUE 00000160 003 OF 003 no-confidence votes. Even Hasek, however, did not wish to predict tomorrow's results. Nevertheless, all of the embassy's interlocutors have been clear on one point: that it is Klaus, not Paroubek, who "holds the keys," to use Hasek's words. Note: While CSSD MPs have doubted the no-confidence motion, ODS MPs with whom emboffs spoke appear also resigned to the fact that the government will fall on March 24. These sentiments underscore the complete unpredictability of the no-confidence vote's result. End Note. -------------- COMMENT: PAROUBEK THE PRAGMATIST? -------------- ¶10. (C) CSSD's congress speeches were the usual stuff of political campaign rallies. Full of slogans and attacks, the speeches betrayed little new with regard to CSSD's future direction. However, in the area of foreign policy, and especially on MD and foreign deployments, CSSD is signaling that it may take a harder line than it has in the past. Nevertheless, many of our contacts and political commentators have pointed out that Paroubek is a pragmatist, and once in power, could prove to be more flexible. Many point to the example of Paroubek's kindred spirit, Slovak PM Robert Fico, who was also a guest at the CSSD congress. Elected on an anti-reform platform, Fico moderated his views after he was elected. In addition, Paroubek has already shown himself to be quite pragmatic during his first term as prime minister (2005-2006). He supported Czech deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan, and continued U.S.-Czech discussions on missile defense which started under his CSSD predecessors. However, there may be limits to Paroubek's pragmatism in the future. His openness to a more trans-Atlantic position on various issues will depend on the composition of his government. If, as some fear, Paroubek decides to rule with the Communists, his foreign policy flexibility would be extremely circumscribed. Thompson-Jones